Good, there were five draws in Week 5 and only one on week 6. That averages out about right. As we get closer to week 10, all the ratings due to odd early runs by weak teams and weak showings by strong teams are correcting, so that out matches are becoming more predictive. Bet conservatively for now.

Good luck with week 7,

Ray Stefani

Attached Files

EPL week 7 pred.doc (33.0 KB, 403 views)

Hi Ray

Any chance of getting week 9?

Cheers

I just posted week 8 on the soccer section last week. I'll post on rugby and soccer from now on so you won't miss any games. There were no games last week because of European World Cup Qualifying, so the week 8 games are coming up in hours.

Cheers,

Ray

Attached Files

EPL week 8 pred.doc (33.0 KB, 427 views)

I posted this in the soccer section lst week; but I want every one to know a simple betting trick so you break even when your team draws and win money when your team wins.

Speaking of draws, there is a simple way to avoid losing money when your team draws, although you will earn less when your team wins. Here is how it works. Suppose the decimal odds for a draw is 4.0. If you put exactly ¼ of your bet on a draw and put the other ¾ of your bet on your team, then if the match is drawn, your get back ¼ of your bet times four, that is, you break even. If your team wins, you make money on the other ¾ of your bet. You only win ¾ of what you would have won if you had placed all of your bet on a win, but then you break even on a draw as a reward. Suppose the decimal odds for a draw is 3.0. If you put exactly 1/3 of your bet on a draw and put the other 2/3 of your bet on your team, then if the match is drawn, your get back 1/3 of your bet times three, that is, you break even. If your team wins, you make money on the other 2/3 of your bet. You only win 2/3 of what you would have won if you had placed all of your bet on a win, but then you break even on a draw as a reward. Of course, you lose your whole bet when the other team wins, but that was going to happen anyway.

Last week was the perfect time to give you the trick to avoid losing money when your team draws. There were 5 draws in 10 matches. I found five value (favourable) bets last week. One was to bet on Watford with a payoff of 4.9, which paid handsomely. The other four values bets were for Brighton, Burnley, Man U, and Newcastle, all of whom drew. So, your five bets would have resulted in breaking even on four and winning on one.

On the pages after my predictions and the team ratings, you will now find an explanation of what the page of predictions means, about how my rating system works and the trick for breaking even when your team draws (as I wrote last week).

Good luck with week 9.

Ray Stefani

Attached Files

EPL week 9 pred.doc (35.0 KB, 396 views)

Every now and then the seemingly impossible happens. When I entered the 2-1 score by which Huddersfield had defeated Man U, I thought I saw smoke coming out of the computer. It recovered and finished the job, writing “Are you kidding me?”.

My favourite has won just 69% of the 68 non-drawn matches. I estimate that using my trick for breaking even on a draw, you would have a 10% profit on turnover for the last 4 weeks.

Good luck with week 10.

Ray Stefani

Attached Files

EPL week 10 pred.doc (35.0 KB, 406 views)

The ratings have settled down nicely, as have profits. Last week, my favourites won 7 of the 8 matches that weren’t drawn, bringing my season accuracy to 70% for my favourites winning non-drawn matches. For the last five weeks, profit on turnover has been 13%, using the betting scheme I gave you which guarantees breaking even for a match that is drawn. The details are at the end of my predictions pages.

Good luck with week 11.

Ray Stefani

Attached Files

EPL week 11 pred.doc (35.0 KB, 415 views)

Ray, how long has this little gem been hiding under Rugby Union? You should start your own thread.

Hi Ray, may be time to just post your EPL selections on the existing Soccer thread, as you are also doing now.

As many of you already know, I have been posting my Super Rugby predictions on this thread for several years. FATCAT asked if I would resume my EPL soccer predictions which I used to post but had discontinued. That was a great idea from FATCAT , so I located my old software, updated it, and ran last EPL season to get beginning values for this season.

For your convenience, I have been posting my EPL predictions here and under ‘Soccer”. I thank Mark for liking theses posts, having just noticed them under “Rugby Union”. Now an Administrator want me to just post under Soccer. I want be cooperative and to not misuse the system, so I will post my EPL predictions under soccer from now on, as requested by the Administrator! Look for them there. Good luck to all.

Ray Stefani