Thanks Ray, laid the unders, and those short favs that were close to your prices (to break even) for a nice 24% profit.

I am glad to hear some clever success stories in a week when Bournemouth beat Newcastle at Newcastle and Burnley beat Southampton at Southampton. Let’s look forward to week 12, to be played over 18-20 November. Good luck to all!

Ray Stefani

Attached Files

EPL week 12 pred.doc (35.0 KB, 210 views)

Not so good this week.

With one match unplayed for week 9, my favourites won 8 of the 9 matches that were not tied. What kinds of bets were you making? I am sorry that my predictions didn't work out for you.

Make that 7 of the 8 matches that were not tied.

Hi Ray, go for value from your prices.

Bourne v Hudd, B were top pick but under as was the draw. Loss.
******** V Tott, T top pick, laid A & draw. Loss.
Bright V Stoke, B top pick, draw was under, laid draw. Loss.
Burn v Swan, B top pick and overs, laid S & draw. Win.
Cryst v Ever, C top pick slightly under, laid and made draw worst way. Loss.
Leic v Man C, prices were almost exact to BF. No bet.
Liver v South, L top pick but unders, also laid S. Loss.
Man U v Newc, Again prices almost exact to BF. No bet.
Watf, W Ham, Wat top pick and value, laid draw & WH. Win
W Brom v Che, C top pick but under, also laid draw. Loss

6 losses & 2 wins for me.
Will get it back next week.

Week 12 went well. My favourites won 7 of the 8 matches that were not drawn. Good luck with "lucky" week 13.

Attached Files

EPL week 13 pred.doc (35.5 KB, 215 views)

\
I look at betting a bit differently. First I look for value in the favourite, that is, seeing if the bookmaker odds exceed mine for the favourite. If not, I look for value in the underdog, seeing if the bookmaker odds exceed mine for the underdog. Otherwise, there would be no bet. If there is a small value bet, there would still be no bet, using 1/2 Kelly. The value bet can be split between the team and a draw to break even on draw.

Last week I only found 4 value bets. There was value in supporting Burnley and Watford, both of which cashed. There was value supporting Tottenham, but that was a loss. There was value supporting Brighton. If the bet was split on win and draw, that bet broke even. If the bet was only on a win, that bet was a loss. Using 1/2 Kelly to allocate the total bet, I calculated a profit either betting only to win or betting to win with a smaller bet to draw.

I am rooting for your comeback in week lucky 13!

Ray Stefani

I hadn't noticed that week 14 starts one day after week 13 ended. I hustled these predictions after yesterday's match. I am tired just thinking about playing games so close together, which probably explains why there were four draws where favourites were happy to take one point on a draw and rest for midweek matches.

Ray Stefani

Attached Files

EPL week 14 pred.doc (35.5 KB, 211 views)

You've lost me Ray. I had a good week and then a bad week and last week I stayed out. Based on your prices I found 17 "value" bets of which only 2 won. Value in Burnley? yes, but they lost. Slight value in Watford for a win. Value in Tottenham?? your price 1.49, best I saw was 1.30. Value in Brighton?, yes but they lost, not a draw.
Not having a go, you are generous and brave putting up your markets, but saying you 'cashed', or broke even on clearly losing bets is a bit disingenuous."