For the second week in a row, there was a major upset. Man U lost at home to bottom-table Sheffield which would have paid any brave Sheffield followers 16 via decimal odds. If you had placed value bets in spite of congested fixtures, you would have lost 32%. Had you booked all underdogs equally, you would have gained 94%, the typical flag telling you there were congested fixtures. Round 21 also has congested fixtures as will the next few rounds.

Stay well!

Ray Stefani

Attached Files

EPL Round 21.doc (61.5 KB, 1491 views)

There are tests to decide if you are positive for COVID. We also have a test to see if fixtures are positive for congestion (besides being close together): what happened if you bet equally on all underdogs? Round 21 tested positive because an equal bet on all underdogs would have returned a 97% profit (the week before, the profit would have been 94%). The cure is a week between fixtures.

It is a good idea to set those congested fixtures aside. Had you placed the five value bets last week, you would have lost 36%, compared to our record of a 92% profit for values bets placed when fixtures were not congested.

Good health!

Ray Stefani

Attached Files

EPL Round 22.doc (61.5 KB, 1498 views)

I have to hurry up and get you Round 23 before it's over.

Round 22 "tested positive" for congestion in that betting on all the underdogs would have earned you an 86% profit, since Wolves, Brighton, Everton and West Ham all pulled off upsets.

Although Rounds 24 and 25 have a week before and after, most the of EPL teams play in Europa League, Champions League and FA Cup matches in between.

Enjoy,

Ray Stefani

Attached Files

EPL Round 23.doc (61.5 KB, 1461 views)

The next rounds are pretty complicated. The EPL fixtures for Rounds 23, 24 and 25 are each a week apart: no congestion there. However, in between Rounds 23 and 24 and in between Rounds 24 and 25 are FA Cup, European Champions League, Europa League and some EPL makeup matches. I determined that all matches for Round 24 are congested. When we get to Round 25, I'll let you know if any one those are not congested.

Good luck and good health,

Ray Stefani

Attached Files

EPL Round 24.doc (61.5 KB, 1469 views)

The scheduling has been so unfair to players, coaches and fans but there has been no alternative. Juergen Klopp tearfully said he didn’t think Liverpool could repeat. Training and preparing for upcoming matches have become haphazard due to testing and quarantining. Congested fixtures have made EPL matches, FA Cup matches, Champions League matches and UEFA Cup matches become a blur of action. It’s been so destructive to the top teams’ cohesiveness that if you bet equally on the underdog in all 160 congested fixtures, you would have made an 18% profit.

But, to cut COVID deaths, they are all doing the best they can. Godspeed to them.

I am sending you predictions for 13 matches. The first three listed matches, two before and one after the weekend, are make-up matches. Two other postponed matches need to be made up. The bottom 10 listed matches are the normal Round 25 weekend EPL matches.

The only match not involving congested fixtures is Brighton vs. Crystal Palace.

All the best,

Ray Stefani

Attached Files

EPL Round 25.doc (62.0 KB, 1383 views)

For Round 26, there are congested fixtures for Chelsea, Man U, Southampton, Leeds, Leicester, Arsenal, Man City and Tottenham. That leaves four matches with normal rest.

Good luck,

Ray Stefani

Attached Files

EPL Round 26.doc (61.5 KB, 1383 views)

The EPL has changed the schedule, inserting seven fixtures from Rounds 29 and 33 between Rounds 26 and 27. All matches for upcoming Round 26 are now congested.

The EPL is trying to shorten the season by moving later round matches between the already scheduled rounds. Matches from Rounds 29 and 33 will be played starting tomorrow, one day after the weekend round was over. Obviously, all of these fixtures are congested.

I went back over the 182 congested fixtures that I evaluated. Had you placed what normally would have been 66 value bets, you would have lost 21% on turnover. Had you bet equally on all 182 congested fixtures, you would have won 15% on turnover. Of course, bookmakers reduce offerings so they usually make about a 10% profit. That shows how much congested fixtures hurt the better teams. For the 50 matches that were not congested, 16 value bets returned a 93% profit on turnover.

Stay well,

Ray Stefani

Attached Files

EPL Rounds 29 and 33.doc (61.0 KB, 1344 views)

The EPL added one match from Round 33 to the Round 27 matches. When I give you a round number, that is from the original EPL schedule. Matches will continue to be moved from the original schedule.

All matches except West Ham-Leeds are congested fixtures.

Best wishes to all,

Ray Stefani

Attached Files

EPL Rounds 27 and 33.doc (62.5 KB, 1374 views)

This weekend we will see what was originally scheduled as Round 28. The fixtures are congested for Arsenal, Tottenham, Man City, Chelsea, Man U and Liverpool due to midweek cup matches. That leaves five fixtures that are not congested.

Good luck.

Ray Stefani

Attached Files

EPL Round 28.doc (62.0 KB, 1317 views)