I believe a good handicapper can find horses at 6/1+ that are really even money chances [if they win they sure are] if that is all they are looking for. We all know that these horses win every day. Needing lots of action is the problem for most punters. Zeroing in confidently on the longer odds [only] would require a lot of discipline, hard work and days with no bets and days with one or two bet only.

It's just impossible handicap for the 6/1+ winners successfully AND have a lot of bets.

You wouldn't need too many winners to get home regularly at those odds to make pretty good money. Problem is, how many punters here would be happy with and have the discipline to only back a few bets a week, or put in the necessary handicapping leg-work?

Yep, scared him off. I don't blame him as I'm sure he has better things to do with his time than share something here after such a hostile reception. His mouth was full of boots before he [or maybe she] got it half open !

I think what perhaps confuses the short price brigade punter ['the only way to possibly win'] is the odds on offer and true odds. Odds on offer can never be more than a very rough guess, regardless if they are worked out mechanically on a computer, handicapped or the final SP by the public as closest to true odds.

True odds can only be worked out after a race by placings and beaten margins. Regardless of what happens during the race or at the start gate, the final result is the truth of the matter regarding true odds and what really was 'overs' and what was in fact, way 'unders'.

Approximately 70% of favourites lose, so that's a 2/1 chance of winning. A genuine negative expectation game chasing the shorties and regardless of how good the handicapping, the odds of getting it wrong and our money being on the wrong horse too often are quite large. Due mainly I think to what can happen in a race from the gates to the finish post.
True odds can go from odds-on to 100/1 in the blink of an eye and in less than a horse length, anywhere during a race for a multitude of reasons.

Maybe it is with this in mind, some successful punters see that 'overs' on the shorties are rarer than we like to believe and are looking very closely at the 3rd. or 4th.. to maybe the 7th favourites for more chance of genuine 'overs' among the prices those runners enjoy in a race.
Not betting them Willy nilly, but finding a few a week that have good things going for them that will be [hopefully] missed by the public and entering the starting gate with far better odds available that it deserves. If it's not missed by the public it becomes a no bet.

It might be along these lines of thought that some punters discover that the $7+ runners aren't so 'impossible' to win on after all. Very good handicapping skill and plenty of time and effort would be required of course, but I think the potential for good profits are certainly there. It's maybe all about true odds and perceived odds and boy, the public gets them wrong a lot and so do the bookies.

Before my above mistake is gleefully pointed out: "Approximately 70% of favourites lose, so that's a 2/1 chance of winning' should be 2/1 chance of losing.

"Not betting them Willy nilly, but finding a few a week that have good things going for them that will be [hopefully] missed by the public and entering the starting gate with far better odds available that it deserves. If it's not missed by the public it becomes a no bet."

Great point Crash. I am a 'value' punter myself. I'm not scared to take shorts on the right horse i.e paratroopers but generally look for the value and bet accordingly. Have to be very patient and sometimes a lot of faith in your method is required because if your backing horses @ $16 when you rate the $10, they are still only going to win approx one in ten races but because you are getting value it can be seen out and when you hit the rewards are there...

cheers
umrum

Will there be a part 2 to this very interesting Thread?

Cheers.
Darky.

I think our thread starter had given us the flick darky.

Umrum,
Lately I've been concentrating on races with only one leader who has an inside [ish] alley and has a good jockey who can rate and control the pace and backmarkers in outside[ish] alleys with jockeys on board who can do what their told [get back and go to sleep until the turn] in races with more than 1 leader to set up some pace. I've been pulling some good winners in the 5/1 to 8/1 range with the odd one above that. The backmarkers drawn wide is were the best money is though.

4. It goes against any real common sense that an ** School Teacher, Mathematition, Engineer, Accountant or any highly educated induvidual, can come up with a numerical/class/time rating system that leads to first a steady income, then on to great wealth.
It simply cannot be done.

Good heavens you guys,,does this statement really make any sense at all ????

It goes against common sense that an educated person can come up with a workable system..????? Do you all really believe that ????

"It simply cannot be done" ??????? Trash.

Yet he encourages individuals on an income of $30,000 to invest $6000 (where?)

For heavens sake.........

I've never been any of those professions you quoted [I can spell mathematician and individual though] so I wouldn't know and the guy never got half a chance to explain his reasoning did he?

lol @ this.

My suspicion is this was someone like Neil playing silly-************s, or perhaps it was an advert & the moderator & reception has scared him off.

you dont need a big bank (about $6k will do), you dont do high turnover, but still make $50k a year. yep, thats for real....