Hi all!
If anyone has the race venue, race date, race number, horse number- or name, of the selections to qualify in your system, in some sort of file, I can run it through past results and give an accurate drawdown and profit- loss figure. Don't want to know how you get the selections!!!
Just an offer of help while I have some spare time.
Cheers

Most new businesses go broke due to under capitalization. That's our big problem too I think. The capital to kick ass when we are on to something and return a meaningful return in serious $$$. Stuff % POT. It might sound good but we are mostly talking peanuts in actual $$$.

Yeah it's one of those rock-and-a-hard-place scenarios: as someone earlier said, you don't want to mortgage the mortgage in order to get a punting bank because your nerves (and marriage) will be in tatters when the inevitable losing streak lobs on the doorstep (and likely beginning at bet #1), so ideally you want to do it out of punting winnings - but if you had a massive bank of punting winnings you wouldn't be inventing a system, because whatever you were doing would be obviously working a treat!

Yeah i kinda worked it out....i don't thimk my first post was a mistake it was an example of how things can go wrong if you run these figures in the page 20 times see the different results

win 34.25%
average dive $3.22
run over 600 bets that would be the average for the your

run that 20 times and see what you get.

Reckon I just ran it 50 times at least and always got between 11 and 55 Max drawdown. Always turned a profit though and Max drawdown centred about the 25 mark.

So, you could bet 1% of your bank with utter confidence (provided nothing changes) and if you like the thrill of gambling get away with 2% in all but about 2 in 50 years of punting.

The results look pretty reasonable to me. Seemed to be following a pretty typical bell curve type of distribution with only a few exceptionally high and low results. Don't know about you but I have no problems with what it's showing me.

KV

Hi KV!
Hope I am not a 'persona non grata' in your book?
One question regarding the drawdown calculator, Don't you think introducing a random element into an already, more or less random operation, like punting, is asking for trouble?

Not wanting to argue, just curious as to what your thoughts are on the matter?
I personally do prefer as much certainty as I can get, and God knows there is very little of that in racing anyway.

Hi Iomaca,

I think drawdown calculator is probably an overflattering name - it's actually a simulator.
The way it works is thussly:
For every bet of your simulation it creates a random number and lets say your win rate is 20% - if that random number is 0.20001 to 0.99999 you lose, if it's 0.00001 to 0.20000 you win. This gives a pretty realistic representation of your chances of winning any particular race with your preferred system.
It carries this on for all the bets of your simulation and personally I can't think of a better way to emulate the seemingly random chances of your horse winning each race with the claimed strike rate of your system.
When one of these simulated races results in a win for you you get the claimed average winning divvy, your bank after each race is calculated and things like maximum drawdown and longest loosing streak are computed.
When run a number of times it simulates realistically for mine the ups and downs of betting. Sometimes you do better than others and you have no control over whether it's a good run or a bad one.

The only improvement I can see it having is a further random element to vary the dividend it pays out each time you win. This would average out at the claimed average divvy but may be higher or lower with each win.

We'd all like a bit of certainty but this little "toy" mirrors the uncertainty of punting nicely I reckon.

DISCLAIMER. Calculation particulars are in the spirit of the program but may not represent the actual finer points of the mechanics of said program, any losses incurred as a result of using the program are not to be laid at the door of the person writing this disclaimer as he did not program the program.

Nice disclaimer!

Hi Duritz,
You mentioned the commodity prices may fall.
The only way they will fall is 4 main things over the next 2 years is.
1)The new emerging country , China suddenly stops expanding (unlikley)
2) America lowers their consumption for stuff for things to run (unlikley)
e.g. they use 40% of the world oil resources just to run around in circles.
Their society revolves around consumables.
3)That there is an explosion of new mining companies cropping up on the seen all up & running , all at the same time, selling stuff at a lower price (wont happen over next few years because it takes a long time to get just one of those things operational let alone profitable.)
4)The large companies stop buying up their competitors (Large companies have been doing this over the last year or so e.g. the largest gold producer now controls 40% of the world market. BHP have done similar things.
So if the few large companies control most of the production ,that could also mean they contol supply & if one controls supply , one controls the price to be paid.

Big companies now mainly invest in new projects with cash saved after dividends paid & not so much with borrowed money . This means more secure returns for investors & less risk for the company.

So ...
I beleive we will see a new surge in commodity prices over the next 12 mounths .
Copper ,odly enough, is the benchmark other commodities follow as their guide . This is tracked on the London stock exchange very closely , it has just broken through the resistance curve for a new record high after massive profit taking in the beginning of the year, which is recognised as an indicator for other commodities to rise. Known as a Bullish market.

My tip..
Buy into a manged fund called Colonial First State -Global Resources Fund.
Min investment $1000
Assert rating 4 stars (2nd highest rating for security)
Risk is spread over more than 60+ world wide Blue Chip mining companies.
One can have some or all their Superannuation placed into it , just by asking your fund manager , including the one at work , to do so.

Last year it went up 60% & indicators show it may get close to that again.
Because of the big players have more control over market prices from their opposition & are in a stronger position to guarantee the needy supply.
e.g. No point a smaller company having lower prices if one cant guarantee supply.
(Seek professional advice before doing so )

Cheers.

__________________
Cheers.

Bagman,

Well you have a few holes there I think. No 3 is what is happening right now. Major competition is coming on tap now. The infrastructure they needed is what has given us this big head start. We will not maintain the prices we have been getting for commodities.

There's one rogue element you have left out. This bird Flu that is racing across the world. If it goes human to human [not if but when], the world economy will stop overnight. There will be more chaos in the west than the east. The west is almost totally reliant on distribution of everything from our main city ports
and produce markets.

Delivery and distribution of everything will grind to a halt. We do not have 'Surge' capacity to deal with a major crisis. That was clearly demonstrated by the aftermath of 'Katrina'. Think biological crisis. Any volunteers to distribute food?

Think of a 'Katrina' in every western city and town happening all at once !!
Think Paynesville/Bainsdale, we have enough food here to last a week and then what? Think thousands of towns just like ours. Think no electricity [very quickly] and then no water supply. Think PANIC everywhere and no food.

We are a pared down society of 'just in time' economic driven supply. There will be nothing coming into our ports and no one to distribute it if there where. We will be in a starvation situation in the west almost immediately, not the east [everything they need is local].
Forget hospitals they are already full and will be in chaos within 24 hrs. Kill rate might hit 50% worldwide. Economy? What economy? :-)

Below is a white washed simple version of what to do [you know, 'children, we get under our desks when the atomic bomb falls' veriety]. still worthwhile. The link to the 'heavy' stuff I'll leave out.

http://www.survivetheflu.com/food.html