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#51
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Saturday, October 27
KGRA 5 RT . ODDS . HORSE 48 . $2.1 . 1 AL BE NIMBLE 16 . $6.3 . 2 COMMEMORATING 10 . $10.0 . 6 ALTOMIC 8 . $12.5 . 7 DON LUIGI 7 . $14.3 . 10 ROLL OVER ROVER 4 . $25.0 . 3 GEIGER SPIRIT ----- 3 . $33.3 . 9 CHIEF HENNESSY 3 . $33.3 . 8 SLIPPERY SLY 2 . $50.0 . 4 REDNRICH 1 . $100.0 . 5 PETRENI C/W RT: 1 AL BE NIMBLE ( 1-2-7-10 ) FRM RT: 1 AL BE NIMBLE * ( 1-2-6-7 ) MULTIS: ( 1,2,6,7,10 ) OR ( 1,2 – 1,2,3,6,7,9,10 ) KGRA 7 RT . ODDS . HORSE 32 . $3.1 . 2 VALENTINO EDDIE 26 . $3.8 . 1 BEDTIME SECRETS 16 . $6.3 . 3 REGAL CAT 8 . $12.5 . 10 LITTLE MISS BEEJAY 8 . $12.5 . 9 LIONS AND DRAGONS 6 . $16.7 . 7 ELLA LA ROSSA ----- 3 . $33.3 . 5 ST ALESSIO 1 . $100.0 . 6 THE HUNGRY MILE C/W RT: 2 VALENTINO EDDIE ( 2-1-3-9 ) FRM RT: 2 VALENTINO EDDIE ( 2-1-3-10 ) MULTIS: ( 1,2,3,9,10 ) OR ( 1,2,3 – 1,2,3,7,9,10 ) MVAL 3 (CITY PACIFIC FINANCE STKS) RT . ODDS . HORSE 53 . $1.9 . 9 ROYAL ASSCHER 21 . $4.8 . 3 GAMBLE ME 10 . $10.0 . 7 EL MANDON 7 . $14.3 . 2 ZIZOU 4 . $25.0 . 8 JESTATUNE ----- 3 . $33.3 . 1 MASKED ASSASSIN 3 . $33.3 . 4 FLEA FLICKER C/W RT: 9 ROYAL ASSCHER * ( 9-3-2-8 ) FRM RT: 9 ROYAL ASSCHER * ( 9-7-3-1 ) MULTIS: ( 2,3,7,8,9 ) OR ( 3,9 – 1,2,3,4,7,8,9 ) MVAL 6 (AAMI VASE) RT . ODDS . HORSE 33 . $3.0 . 2 BARBARICUS 30 . $3.3 . 1 MARCHING 12 . $8.3 . 3 DAVCON 10 . $10.0 . 12 THESANDMANCAN 10 . $10.0 . 6 KIBBUTZ 3 . $33.3 . 5 ON THE WARPATH ----- 2 . $50.0 . 7 PROTESTA 1 . $100.0 . 9 BEST BEWARE 1 . $100.0 . 13 TRULY BEAUTIFUL C/W RT: 1 MARCHING ( 1-2-6-3 ) FRM RT: 2 BARBARICUS ( 2-12-1-3 ) MULTIS: ( 1,2,3,6,12 ) OR ( 1,2 – 1,2,3,5,6,7,12 ) MVAL 7 (CATHAY PACIFIC AIRWAYS CUP) RT . ODDS . HORSE 30 . $3.3 . 8 DRACS BACK 23 . $4.3 . 5 SARRERA 15 . $6.7 . 3 DOLPHIN JO 11 . $9.1 . 13 REGGIE 11 . $9.1 . 1 GALLIC 4 . $25.0 . 14 RED LORD ----- 3 . $33.3 . 6 VIZ VITAE 2 . $50.0 . 4 LAZER SHARP 2 . $50.0 . 11 JUKEBOX JOHNNY 1 . $100.0 . 7 SCHUMPETER 1 . $100.0 . 9 SPECIAL SCENE C/W RT: 8 DRACS BACK ( 8-5-1-13 ) FRM RT: 8 DRACS BACK ( 8-3-5-13 ) MULTIS: ( 1,23,5,8,13 ) OR ( 3,5,8 – 1,3,5,8,13,14 ) MVAL 8 (COX PLATE) RT . ODDS . HORSE 26 . $3.8 . 11 MISS FINLAND 23 . $4.3 . 6 HARADASUN 17 . $5.9 . 1 EL SEGUNDO 11 . $9.1 . 12 DEVIL MOON 6 . $16.7 . 7 EFFICIENT 5 . $20.0 . 10 DIVINE MADONNA 5 . $20.0 . 2 LAD OF THE MANOR ----- 3 . $33.3 . 3 NICONERO 2 . $50.0 . 5 ZIPPING 2 . $50.0 . 4 MARASCO 1 . $100.0 . 13 ESKIMO QUEEN 1 . $100.0 . 9 MAGIC CAPE C/W RT: 11 MISS FINLAND ( 11-6-1-12 ) FRM RT: 1 EL SEGUNDO ( 1-11-6-12 ) MULTIS: ( 1,6,7,10,11,12 ) OR ( 1,6,11,12 – 1,2,6,7,10,11,12 ) MVAL 9 (JAYCO CRYSTAL MILE) RT . ODDS . HORSE 38 . $2.6 . 3 SONIC QUEST 14 . $7.1 . 6 FLASH TRICK 12 . $8.3 . 8 PINNACLES 10 . $10.0 . 4 DR NIPANDTUCK 6 . $16.7 . 5 EMERALD JACK 6 . $16.7 . 10 IN THE SHADOWS ----- 5 . $20.0 . 2 ORANGE COUNTY 2 . $50.0 . 12 TEARS I CRY 2 . $50.0 . 1 GROWL 2 . $50.0 . 7 MIND YOUR HEAD 1 . $100.0 . 11 KELTAH C/W RT: 3 SONIC QUEST ( 3-8-4-6 ) FRM RT: 3 SONIC QUEST ( 3-6-5-10 ) MULTIS: ( 3,4,5,6,8 ) OR ( 3,6 – 2,3,4,5,6,8,10 ) ASCOT 5 (PLACID ARK STKS) RT . ODDS . HORSE 54 . $1.9 . 1 DARK TARGET 20 . $5.0 . 2 MY TIME 10 . $10.0 . 3 DANANA SMOOTHIE 6 . $16.7 . 9 MAJOR CANNY 5 . $20.0 . 5 VERSARC 3 . $33.3 . 4 GENERALAZ ----- 2 . $50.0 . 10 NURSE NORMA 1 . $100.0 . 7 BOLD EMPIRE C/W RT: 1 DARK TARGET * ( 1-2-3-9 ) FRM RT: 1 DARK TARGET * ( 1-2-3-5 ) MULTIS: ( 1,2,3,5,9 ) OR ( 1,2 – 1,2,3,4,5,9,10 ) ASCOT 7 RT . ODDS . HORSE 48 . $2.1 . 1 DANES MYSTERY 18 . $5.6 . 7 CANNY JACK 13 . $7.7 . 4 DIAMOND HIGHWAY 12 . $8.3 . 6 LACERATE 4 . $25.0 . 12 ISLAND FORCE 4 . $25.0 . 8 BULL DURHAM ----- 2 . $50.0 . 13 LOVE A BUZZ 1 . $100.0 . 5 FOXY BOY C/W RT: 1 DANES MYSTERY * ( 1-7-4-6 ) FRM RT: 1 DANES MYSTERY * ( 1-7-6-4 ) MULTIS: ( 1,4,6,7,12 ) OR ( 1,7 – 1,4,6,7,8,12,13 ) ASCOT 9 RT . ODDS . HORSE 35 . $2.9 . 7 EL PRESIDENTE 35 . $2.9 . 8 VAIN CRUSADER 7 . $14.3 . 5 ALPINE LAD 7 . $14.3 . 3 DIAMOND GREY 4 . $25.0 . 11 MIDTIME 4 . $25.0 . 1 LAETARE ----- 3 . $33.3 . 6 CERTAIN GOLD 2 . $50.0 . 4 DRESS SUIT 2 . $50.0 . 10 LONDON COURT 2 . $50.0 . 2 CHANGING LANES C/W RT: 8 VAIN CRUSADER ( 8-7-3-1 ) FRM RT: 7 EL PRESIDENTE ( 7-8-5-3 ) MULTIS: ( 3,5,7,8,11 ) OR ( 7,8 – 1,3,5,6,7,8,11 ) Last edited by Sportz : 27th October 2007 at 12:04 PM. |
#52
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The sooner we get over this EI thing, the better. A real lack of quality racing today (apart from Moonee Valley). I couldn't even find any suitable races at Morphettville. Likewise with Rockhampton, and I ended up including a couple of races from Kembla Grange where the horses haven't run for 2 months. Risky.
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#53
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Results (Unitab divs)
KGRA 5 1 AL BE NIMBLE 1.70 1.30 4 REDNRICH 4.40 9 CHIEF HENNESSY 3.90 QN 1*4 17.70 TF 1*4*9 191.70 F4 1*4*9*2 834.80 KGRA 7 1 BEDTIME SECRETS 3.80 1.70 3 REGAL CAT 1.70 7 ELLA LA ROSSA 3.20 QN 1*3 4.80 TF 1*3*7 97.50 F4 1*3*7*9 379.60 MVAL 3 9 ROYAL ASSCHER 2.10 1.30 7 EL MANDON 2.10 6 WILSONS PROMONTORY 16.90 QN 7*9 7.00 TF 9*7*6 491.00 F4 9*7*6*1 2512.60 MVAL 6 1 MARCHING 5.00 2.00 6 KIBBUTZ 2.40 2 BARBARICUS 1.60 QN 1*6 19.60 TF 1*6*2 92.80 F4 1*6*2*4 1018.20 MVAL 7 1 GALLIC 10.10 3.20 4 LAZER SHARP 2.60 11 JUKEBOX JOHNNY 9.50 QN 1*4 38.50 TF 1*4*11 2302.80 F4 1*4*11*5 14110.40 MVAL 8 1 EL SEGUNDO 6.20 2.40 8 WONDERFUL WORLD 8.30 6 HARADASUN 2.00 QN 1*8 146.50 TF 1*8*6 1312.10 F4 1*8*6*11 6050.20 MVAL 9 3 SONIC QUEST 3.40 1.60 2 ORANGE COUNTY 2.90 12 TEARS I CRY 6.10 QN 2*3 17.90 TF 3*2*12 500.50 F4 3*2*12*5 3461.20 ASCOT 5 2 MY TIME 7.80 1.80 9 MAJOR CANNY 3.00 10 NURSE NORMA 3.00 QN 2*9 47.60 TF 2*9*10 397.80 F4 2*9*10*1 1318.60 ASCOT 7 1 DANES MYSTERY 1.90 1.10 8 BULL DURHAM 3.20 7 CANNY JACK 1.60 QN 1*8 12.90 TF 1*8*7 69.20 F4 1*8*7*9 380.20 ASCOT 9 7 EL PRESIDENTE 2.00 1.20 8 VAIN CRUSADER 1.60 5 ALPINE LAD 2.60 QN 7*8 3.10 TF 7*8*5 39.50 F4 7*8*5*10 219.80 |
#54
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Wednesday, October 31
Not a great day today. Most races seem to be too open or have no value. WERR 4 RT . ODDS . HORSE 41 . $2.4 . 2 GEE UP 33 . $3.0 . 5 JUNGLE RULER 13 . $7.7 . 3 WHAT'S THE TIME 10 . $10.0 . 8 PROSPECT ----- 3 . $33.3 . 4 PHOENIX EXPRESS 1 . $100.0 . 7 MONTCALM C/W RT: 2 GEE UP * ( 2-5-3-8 ) FRM RT: 5 JUNGLE RULER ( 5-2-3-8 ) MULTIS: ( 2,3,5,8 ) OR ( 2,5 – 2,3,4,5,8 ) WERR 8 (WERRIBEE CUP) RT . ODDS . HORSE 25 . $4.0 . 13 EXTEND 14 . $7.1 . 10 BALLACK 13 . $7.7 . 5 LACEY UNDERALL 10 . $10.0 . 2 BLUE COLLAR JACK 8 . $12.5 . 1 BAUGHURST 8 . $12.5 . 7 SALIENTE ----- 6 . $16.7 . 12 DANCE ON BOARD 5 . $20.0 . 6 ROANOKE 5 . $20.0 . 11 ROYAL SINGER 5 . $20.0 . 4 STAMEN 3 . $33.3 . 8 SILENT ACTION C/W RT: 13 EXTEND ( 13-7-1-10 ) FRM RT: 13 EXTEND ( 13-2-10-5 ) MULTIS: ( 1,2,5,10,13 ) OR ( 10,13 – 1,2,5,7,10,12,13 ) BALAK 6 RT . ODDS . HORSE 52 . $1.9 . 5 MAKTUUB 14 . $7.1 . 11 WONSOK 10 . $10.0 . 8 OUR SILVER LORD 8 . $12.5 . 2 JUST A GIGGLE 5 . $20.0 . 1 GUNCHASE 5 . $20.0 . 6 BENEHIL ----- 2 . $50.0 . 3 ULLRICH 2 . $50.0 . 10 SURE PAINT 2 . $50.0 . 9 SHALOTTO 2 . $50.0 . 13 WELL ACTED 1 . $100.0 . 14 WE THREE KINGS 1 . $100.0 . 7 NAPLES BAY C/W RT: 5 MAKTUUB * ( 5-2-11-8 ) FRM RT: 5 MAKTUUB * ( 5-11-8-1 ) MULTIS: ( 1,2,5,8,11 ) OR ( 5,8,11 – 1,2,5,6,8,11 ) ASCOT 2 RT . ODDS . HORSE 47 . $2.1 . 4 DESERT ACE 20 . $5.0 . 5 EXHILARATING 10 . $10.0 . 11 TURBO CHARGED 10 . $10.0 . 10 OUTSIDE EDGE 6 . $16.7 . 6 BESWINGING 6 . $16.7 . 3 STIRRUP IRON JACK ----- 2 . $50.0 . 1 ROSSAM 1 . $100.0 . 2 SPECIAL WITNESS C/W RT: 4 DESERT ACE * ( 4-5-10-11 ) FRM RT: 4 DESERT ACE * ( 4-5-11-10 ) MULTIS: ( 4,5,6,10,11 ) OR ( 4,5 – 1,3,4,5,6,10,11 ) ASCOT 3 RT . ODDS . HORSE 47 . $2.1 . 3 VIZARD 22 . $4.5 . 2 SOLIDWICKEDCRUEL 15 . $6.7 . 5 CHINA VISIT 10 . $10.0 . 6 GALLIVANTER 4 . $25.0 . 4 NOWA NOWA ----- 3 . $33.3 . 1 FIM MARU C/W RT: 3 VIZARD ( 3-2-5-6 ) FRM RT: 3 VIZARD * ( 3-5-2-6 ) MULTIS: ( 2,3,4,5,6 ) OR ( 2,3,5 – 1,2,3,4,5,6 ) Last edited by Sportz : 31st October 2007 at 12:29 PM. |
#55
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Sure was a tough end to the month.
Results (Unitab divs) WERR 4 8 PROSPECT 6.30 3.30 5 JUNGLE RULER 1.70 4 PHOENIX EXPRESS NTD QN 5*8 10.00 TF 8*5*4 193.60 F4 8*5*4*2 406.00 WERR 8 1 BAUGHURST 10.70 3.50 13 EXTEND 1.50 7 SALIENTE 3.60 QN 1*13 16.00 TF 1*13*7 226.60 F4 1*13*7*4 5003.80 BALAK 6 11 WONSOK 7.00 2.10 5 MAKTUUB 1.10 2 JUST A GIGGLE 2.70 QN 5*11 5.00 TF 11*5*2 88.20 F4 11*5*2*10 216.20 ASCOT 2 1 ROSSAM 72.50 13.00 5 EXHILARATING 2.00 10 OUTSIDE EDGE 1.90 QN 1*5 165.40 TF 1*5*10 1676.10 F4 JACKPOT 1*5*10*6 2639.75 ASCOT 3 3 VIZARD 2.00 1.00 2 SOLIDWICKEDCRUEL 2.20 6 GALLIVANTER 1.80 QN 2*3 6.40 TF 3*2*6 24.10 F4 3*2*6*1 135.60 |
#56
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There were a couple of small errors in the results summary for the three strategies that I posted earlier in the month. Anyway, I've fixed them and updated the figures now that the month is up.
Strategy 1: Aug: Races 39, Wins 24 (62%), Out $2258, In $2581.4, Profit $323.40 (14.3%) Sep: Races 52, Wins 31 (60%), Out $3029, In $3636.70, Profit $607.70 (20.0%) Oct: Races 34, Wins 24 (71%), Out $1997, In $2384.40, Profit $387.40 (19.4%) Total: Races 125, Wins 79 (63%), Out $7284, In $8602.50, Profit $1318.50 (18.1%) Strategy 2: Aug: Races 28, Wins 19 (68%), Out $1628, In $1945.20, Profit $317.20 (19.5%) Sep: Races 32, Wins 21 (66%), Out $1913, In $2486.70, Profit $573.70 (30%) Oct: Races 14, Wins 10 (71%), Out $855, In $833.40, Loss $16.60 (2%) Total: Races 74, Wins 50 (68%), Out $4396, In $5265.30, Profit $869.30 (19.8%) Strategy 3: Aug: Races 10, Wins 6 (60%), Out $600, In $796, Profit $196 (32.6%) Sep: Races 8, Wins 6 (75%), Out $480, In $864, Profit $384 (80%) Oct: Races 4, Wins 4 (100%), Out $240, In $392, Profit $152 (63.3%) Total: Races 22, Wins 16 (73%), Out $1320, In $2052, Profit $732 (55.5%) |
#57
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Okay, I've done a bit more research. I decided to test out a couple of different staking methods on the betting strategy races, because those are the races I think are most suitable for backing the top 2 raters. Firstly, I went over all the strategy 1 selections and I bet exactly the same amount per race as I did with the original rules, but this time I simply saved on the shorter priced selection and I bet all of the rest on the longer priced runner. And then, I also worked out what the result would have been just using plain old level stakes - $30 on both selections no matter what price.
Here are the results: Strategy 1 - Out $7284, In $8602.50, Profit $1318.50 (18.1%) Back/Save - Out $7284, In $8610.60, Profit $1326.60 (18.2%) Level stake - Out $7500, In $8883.00, Profit $1383.00 (18.4%) So there you go. 3 very different staking methods and the end result was VERY similar with level stakes coming out just slightly in front. Interesting. And here are some more stats from the strategy 1 races since August. Top rated: 125, Wins 51, Return $147.20, Profit $22.20 (17.8%) 2nd rated: 125, Wins 28, Return $148.90, Profit $23.90 (19.1%) Shortest priced: 126*, Wins 50, Return $139.70, Profit $13.70 (10.8%) Longest priced: 124, Wins 29, Return $156.40, Profit $32.40 (26.1%) (* one race had equal priced runners, so I included both of them in the shortest priced category) That's certainly food for thought. 26.1% profit for the longer priced runner as opposed to just 10.8% profit for the shorter price. Something to look at for the future. |
#58
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Now here's another betting strategy to look at. It's similar to Strategy 3, but not as selective. It's an idea I've been looking at for a while and it seems to work.
Strategy 4: (1) Concentrate on races where the C/W RT selection and the FRM RT selection are two different horses. There must be one sole selection for each method, no equal selections. (2) Back both runners, providing that they are the first two horses listed in the ratings. Also, the top rater must have at least 30 points and the 2nd top rater has at least 15 points. (3) Again, only bet if the top two ratings add up to no more than 65 points. (4) Bet the same amount on both selections. For the purpose of this exercise, we'll bet $30 on each runner, so we're betting roughly what we bet on the other three strategies. Here's a recent example: Quote:
As you can see, Marching was the C/W RT selection and Barbaricus was the FRM RT selection, and they were the top two rated runners in the race. This is the type of race we're looking for with this strategy. Unlike the other strategies, we're betting equal amounts on both runners. This means that on the odd occasion, you might actually lose money on a race despite getting the winner, but it also means that you can get a great result if a good priced selection comes home. Results so far this season using Unitab divs: Aug: Races 12, Wins 7 (58%), Out $720, In $912, Profit $192 (26.7%) Sep: Races 14, Wins 10 (71%), Out $840, In $1305, Profit $465 (55.4%) Oct: Races 12, Wins 11 (92%), Out $720, In $1278, Profit $558 (77.5%) Total: Races 38, Wins 28 (74%), Out $2280, In $3495, Profit $1215 (53.3%) After looking at the past 3 months results, I guess my recommendation would probably be to use the Strategy 1 selections in conjunction with either Strategy 3 or Strategy 4. Last edited by Sportz : 2nd November 2007 at 10:31 AM. |
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