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  #51  
Old 27th October 2007, 11:36 AM
Sportz Sportz is offline
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Saturday, October 27

KGRA 5
RT . ODDS . HORSE
48 . $2.1 . 1 AL BE NIMBLE
16 . $6.3 . 2 COMMEMORATING
10 . $10.0 . 6 ALTOMIC
8 . $12.5 . 7 DON LUIGI
7 . $14.3 . 10 ROLL OVER ROVER
4 . $25.0 . 3 GEIGER SPIRIT
-----
3 . $33.3 . 9 CHIEF HENNESSY
3 . $33.3 . 8 SLIPPERY SLY
2 . $50.0 . 4 REDNRICH
1 . $100.0 . 5 PETRENI

C/W RT: 1 AL BE NIMBLE ( 1-2-7-10 )
FRM RT: 1 AL BE NIMBLE * ( 1-2-6-7 )
MULTIS: ( 1,2,6,7,10 ) OR ( 1,2 – 1,2,3,6,7,9,10 )



KGRA 7
RT . ODDS . HORSE
32 . $3.1 . 2 VALENTINO EDDIE
26 . $3.8 . 1 BEDTIME SECRETS
16 . $6.3 . 3 REGAL CAT
8 . $12.5 . 10 LITTLE MISS BEEJAY
8 . $12.5 . 9 LIONS AND DRAGONS
6 . $16.7 . 7 ELLA LA ROSSA
-----
3 . $33.3 . 5 ST ALESSIO
1 . $100.0 . 6 THE HUNGRY MILE

C/W RT: 2 VALENTINO EDDIE ( 2-1-3-9 )
FRM RT: 2 VALENTINO EDDIE ( 2-1-3-10 )
MULTIS: ( 1,2,3,9,10 ) OR ( 1,2,3 – 1,2,3,7,9,10 )



MVAL 3 (CITY PACIFIC FINANCE STKS)
RT . ODDS . HORSE
53 . $1.9 . 9 ROYAL ASSCHER
21 . $4.8 . 3 GAMBLE ME
10 . $10.0 . 7 EL MANDON
7 . $14.3 . 2 ZIZOU
4 . $25.0 . 8 JESTATUNE
-----
3 . $33.3 . 1 MASKED ASSASSIN
3 . $33.3 . 4 FLEA FLICKER

C/W RT: 9 ROYAL ASSCHER * ( 9-3-2-8 )
FRM RT: 9 ROYAL ASSCHER * ( 9-7-3-1 )
MULTIS: ( 2,3,7,8,9 ) OR ( 3,9 – 1,2,3,4,7,8,9 )



MVAL 6 (AAMI VASE)
RT . ODDS . HORSE
33 . $3.0 . 2 BARBARICUS
30 . $3.3 . 1 MARCHING
12 . $8.3 . 3 DAVCON
10 . $10.0 . 12 THESANDMANCAN
10 . $10.0 . 6 KIBBUTZ
3 . $33.3 . 5 ON THE WARPATH
-----
2 . $50.0 . 7 PROTESTA
1 . $100.0 . 9 BEST BEWARE
1 . $100.0 . 13 TRULY BEAUTIFUL

C/W RT: 1 MARCHING ( 1-2-6-3 )
FRM RT: 2 BARBARICUS ( 2-12-1-3 )
MULTIS: ( 1,2,3,6,12 ) OR ( 1,2 – 1,2,3,5,6,7,12 )



MVAL 7 (CATHAY PACIFIC AIRWAYS CUP)
RT . ODDS . HORSE
30 . $3.3 . 8 DRACS BACK
23 . $4.3 . 5 SARRERA
15 . $6.7 . 3 DOLPHIN JO
11 . $9.1 . 13 REGGIE
11 . $9.1 . 1 GALLIC
4 . $25.0 . 14 RED LORD
-----
3 . $33.3 . 6 VIZ VITAE
2 . $50.0 . 4 LAZER SHARP
2 . $50.0 . 11 JUKEBOX JOHNNY
1 . $100.0 . 7 SCHUMPETER
1 . $100.0 . 9 SPECIAL SCENE

C/W RT: 8 DRACS BACK ( 8-5-1-13 )
FRM RT: 8 DRACS BACK ( 8-3-5-13 )
MULTIS: ( 1,23,5,8,13 ) OR ( 3,5,8 – 1,3,5,8,13,14 )



MVAL 8 (COX PLATE)
RT . ODDS . HORSE
26 . $3.8 . 11 MISS FINLAND
23 . $4.3 . 6 HARADASUN
17 . $5.9 . 1 EL SEGUNDO
11 . $9.1 . 12 DEVIL MOON
6 . $16.7 . 7 EFFICIENT
5 . $20.0 . 10 DIVINE MADONNA
5 . $20.0 . 2 LAD OF THE MANOR
-----
3 . $33.3 . 3 NICONERO
2 . $50.0 . 5 ZIPPING
2 . $50.0 . 4 MARASCO
1 . $100.0 . 13 ESKIMO QUEEN
1 . $100.0 . 9 MAGIC CAPE

C/W RT: 11 MISS FINLAND ( 11-6-1-12 )
FRM RT: 1 EL SEGUNDO ( 1-11-6-12 )
MULTIS: ( 1,6,7,10,11,12 ) OR ( 1,6,11,12 – 1,2,6,7,10,11,12 )



MVAL 9 (JAYCO CRYSTAL MILE)
RT . ODDS . HORSE
38 . $2.6 . 3 SONIC QUEST
14 . $7.1 . 6 FLASH TRICK
12 . $8.3 . 8 PINNACLES
10 . $10.0 . 4 DR NIPANDTUCK
6 . $16.7 . 5 EMERALD JACK
6 . $16.7 . 10 IN THE SHADOWS
-----
5 . $20.0 . 2 ORANGE COUNTY
2 . $50.0 . 12 TEARS I CRY
2 . $50.0 . 1 GROWL
2 . $50.0 . 7 MIND YOUR HEAD
1 . $100.0 . 11 KELTAH

C/W RT: 3 SONIC QUEST ( 3-8-4-6 )
FRM RT: 3 SONIC QUEST ( 3-6-5-10 )
MULTIS: ( 3,4,5,6,8 ) OR ( 3,6 – 2,3,4,5,6,8,10 )



ASCOT 5 (PLACID ARK STKS)
RT . ODDS . HORSE
54 . $1.9 . 1 DARK TARGET
20 . $5.0 . 2 MY TIME
10 . $10.0 . 3 DANANA SMOOTHIE
6 . $16.7 . 9 MAJOR CANNY
5 . $20.0 . 5 VERSARC
3 . $33.3 . 4 GENERALAZ
-----
2 . $50.0 . 10 NURSE NORMA
1 . $100.0 . 7 BOLD EMPIRE

C/W RT: 1 DARK TARGET * ( 1-2-3-9 )
FRM RT: 1 DARK TARGET * ( 1-2-3-5 )
MULTIS: ( 1,2,3,5,9 ) OR ( 1,2 – 1,2,3,4,5,9,10 )



ASCOT 7
RT . ODDS . HORSE
48 . $2.1 . 1 DANES MYSTERY
18 . $5.6 . 7 CANNY JACK
13 . $7.7 . 4 DIAMOND HIGHWAY
12 . $8.3 . 6 LACERATE
4 . $25.0 . 12 ISLAND FORCE
4 . $25.0 . 8 BULL DURHAM
-----
2 . $50.0 . 13 LOVE A BUZZ
1 . $100.0 . 5 FOXY BOY

C/W RT: 1 DANES MYSTERY * ( 1-7-4-6 )
FRM RT: 1 DANES MYSTERY * ( 1-7-6-4 )
MULTIS: ( 1,4,6,7,12 ) OR ( 1,7 – 1,4,6,7,8,12,13 )



ASCOT 9
RT . ODDS . HORSE
35 . $2.9 . 7 EL PRESIDENTE
35 . $2.9 . 8 VAIN CRUSADER
7 . $14.3 . 5 ALPINE LAD
7 . $14.3 . 3 DIAMOND GREY
4 . $25.0 . 11 MIDTIME
4 . $25.0 . 1 LAETARE
-----
3 . $33.3 . 6 CERTAIN GOLD
2 . $50.0 . 4 DRESS SUIT
2 . $50.0 . 10 LONDON COURT
2 . $50.0 . 2 CHANGING LANES

C/W RT: 8 VAIN CRUSADER ( 8-7-3-1 )
FRM RT: 7 EL PRESIDENTE ( 7-8-5-3 )
MULTIS: ( 3,5,7,8,11 ) OR ( 7,8 – 1,3,5,6,7,8,11 )

Last edited by Sportz : 27th October 2007 at 12:04 PM.
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  #52  
Old 27th October 2007, 12:58 PM
Sportz Sportz is offline
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The sooner we get over this EI thing, the better. A real lack of quality racing today (apart from Moonee Valley). I couldn't even find any suitable races at Morphettville. Likewise with Rockhampton, and I ended up including a couple of races from Kembla Grange where the horses haven't run for 2 months. Risky.
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  #53  
Old 27th October 2007, 08:12 PM
Sportz Sportz is offline
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Results (Unitab divs)

KGRA 5
1 AL BE NIMBLE 1.70 1.30
4 REDNRICH 4.40
9 CHIEF HENNESSY 3.90

QN 1*4 17.70
TF 1*4*9 191.70
F4 1*4*9*2 834.80



KGRA 7
1 BEDTIME SECRETS 3.80 1.70
3 REGAL CAT 1.70
7 ELLA LA ROSSA 3.20

QN 1*3 4.80
TF 1*3*7 97.50
F4 1*3*7*9 379.60




MVAL 3
9 ROYAL ASSCHER 2.10 1.30
7 EL MANDON 2.10
6 WILSONS PROMONTORY 16.90

QN 7*9 7.00
TF 9*7*6 491.00
F4 9*7*6*1 2512.60



MVAL 6
1 MARCHING 5.00 2.00
6 KIBBUTZ 2.40
2 BARBARICUS 1.60

QN 1*6 19.60
TF 1*6*2 92.80

F4 1*6*2*4 1018.20



MVAL 7
1 GALLIC 10.10 3.20
4 LAZER SHARP 2.60
11 JUKEBOX JOHNNY 9.50

QN 1*4 38.50
TF 1*4*11 2302.80
F4 1*4*11*5 14110.40



MVAL 8
1 EL SEGUNDO 6.20 2.40
8 WONDERFUL WORLD 8.30
6 HARADASUN 2.00

QN 1*8 146.50
TF 1*8*6 1312.10
F4 1*8*6*11 6050.20



MVAL 9
3 SONIC QUEST 3.40 1.60
2 ORANGE COUNTY 2.90
12 TEARS I CRY 6.10

QN 2*3 17.90
TF 3*2*12 500.50
F4 3*2*12*5 3461.20



ASCOT 5
2 MY TIME 7.80 1.80
9 MAJOR CANNY 3.00
10 NURSE NORMA 3.00

QN 2*9 47.60
TF 2*9*10 397.80
F4 2*9*10*1 1318.60




ASCOT 7
1 DANES MYSTERY 1.90 1.10
8 BULL DURHAM 3.20
7 CANNY JACK 1.60

QN 1*8 12.90
TF 1*8*7 69.20

F4 1*8*7*9 380.20



ASCOT 9
7 EL PRESIDENTE 2.00 1.20
8 VAIN CRUSADER 1.60
5 ALPINE LAD 2.60

QN 7*8 3.10
TF 7*8*5 39.50

F4 7*8*5*10 219.80
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  #54  
Old 31st October 2007, 12:23 PM
Sportz Sportz is offline
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Wednesday, October 31

Not a great day today. Most races seem to be too open or have no value.

WERR 4
RT . ODDS . HORSE
41 . $2.4 . 2 GEE UP
33 . $3.0 . 5 JUNGLE RULER
13 . $7.7 . 3 WHAT'S THE TIME
10 . $10.0 . 8 PROSPECT
-----
3 . $33.3 . 4 PHOENIX EXPRESS
1 . $100.0 . 7 MONTCALM

C/W RT: 2 GEE UP * ( 2-5-3-8 )
FRM RT: 5 JUNGLE RULER ( 5-2-3-8 )
MULTIS: ( 2,3,5,8 ) OR ( 2,5 – 2,3,4,5,8 )



WERR 8 (WERRIBEE CUP)
RT . ODDS . HORSE
25 . $4.0 . 13 EXTEND
14 . $7.1 . 10 BALLACK
13 . $7.7 . 5 LACEY UNDERALL
10 . $10.0 . 2 BLUE COLLAR JACK
8 . $12.5 . 1 BAUGHURST
8 . $12.5 . 7 SALIENTE
-----
6 . $16.7 . 12 DANCE ON BOARD
5 . $20.0 . 6 ROANOKE
5 . $20.0 . 11 ROYAL SINGER
5 . $20.0 . 4 STAMEN
3 . $33.3 . 8 SILENT ACTION

C/W RT: 13 EXTEND ( 13-7-1-10 )
FRM RT: 13 EXTEND ( 13-2-10-5 )
MULTIS: ( 1,2,5,10,13 ) OR ( 10,13 – 1,2,5,7,10,12,13 )



BALAK 6
RT . ODDS . HORSE
52 . $1.9 . 5 MAKTUUB
14 . $7.1 . 11 WONSOK
10 . $10.0 . 8 OUR SILVER LORD
8 . $12.5 . 2 JUST A GIGGLE
5 . $20.0 . 1 GUNCHASE
5 . $20.0 . 6 BENEHIL
-----
2 . $50.0 . 3 ULLRICH
2 . $50.0 . 10 SURE PAINT
2 . $50.0 . 9 SHALOTTO
2 . $50.0 . 13 WELL ACTED
1 . $100.0 . 14 WE THREE KINGS
1 . $100.0 . 7 NAPLES BAY

C/W RT: 5 MAKTUUB * ( 5-2-11-8 )
FRM RT: 5 MAKTUUB * ( 5-11-8-1 )
MULTIS: ( 1,2,5,8,11 ) OR ( 5,8,11 – 1,2,5,6,8,11 )



ASCOT 2
RT . ODDS . HORSE
47 . $2.1 . 4 DESERT ACE
20 . $5.0 . 5 EXHILARATING
10 . $10.0 . 11 TURBO CHARGED
10 . $10.0 . 10 OUTSIDE EDGE
6 . $16.7 . 6 BESWINGING
6 . $16.7 . 3 STIRRUP IRON JACK
-----
2 . $50.0 . 1 ROSSAM
1 . $100.0 . 2 SPECIAL WITNESS

C/W RT: 4 DESERT ACE * ( 4-5-10-11 )
FRM RT: 4 DESERT ACE * ( 4-5-11-10 )
MULTIS: ( 4,5,6,10,11 ) OR ( 4,5 – 1,3,4,5,6,10,11 )



ASCOT 3
RT . ODDS . HORSE
47 . $2.1 . 3 VIZARD
22 . $4.5 . 2 SOLIDWICKEDCRUEL
15 . $6.7 . 5 CHINA VISIT
10 . $10.0 . 6 GALLIVANTER
4 . $25.0 . 4 NOWA NOWA
-----
3 . $33.3 . 1 FIM MARU

C/W RT: 3 VIZARD ( 3-2-5-6 )
FRM RT: 3 VIZARD * ( 3-5-2-6 )
MULTIS: ( 2,3,4,5,6 ) OR ( 2,3,5 – 1,2,3,4,5,6 )

Last edited by Sportz : 31st October 2007 at 12:29 PM.
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  #55  
Old 31st October 2007, 09:39 PM
Sportz Sportz is offline
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Sure was a tough end to the month.

Results (Unitab divs)

WERR 4
8 PROSPECT 6.30 3.30
5 JUNGLE RULER 1.70
4 PHOENIX EXPRESS NTD

QN 5*8 10.00
TF 8*5*4 193.60
F4 8*5*4*2 406.00



WERR 8
1 BAUGHURST 10.70 3.50
13 EXTEND 1.50
7 SALIENTE 3.60

QN 1*13 16.00
TF 1*13*7 226.60
F4 1*13*7*4 5003.80



BALAK 6
11 WONSOK 7.00 2.10
5 MAKTUUB 1.10
2 JUST A GIGGLE 2.70

QN 5*11 5.00
TF 11*5*2 88.20

F4 11*5*2*10 216.20



ASCOT 2
1 ROSSAM 72.50 13.00
5 EXHILARATING 2.00
10 OUTSIDE EDGE 1.90

QN 1*5 165.40
TF 1*5*10 1676.10
F4 JACKPOT 1*5*10*6 2639.75



ASCOT 3
3 VIZARD 2.00 1.00
2 SOLIDWICKEDCRUEL 2.20
6 GALLIVANTER 1.80

QN 2*3 6.40
TF 3*2*6 24.10
F4 3*2*6*1 135.60
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  #56  
Old 31st October 2007, 10:49 PM
Sportz Sportz is offline
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There were a couple of small errors in the results summary for the three strategies that I posted earlier in the month. Anyway, I've fixed them and updated the figures now that the month is up.

Strategy 1:

Aug: Races 39, Wins 24 (62%), Out $2258, In $2581.4, Profit $323.40 (14.3%)
Sep: Races 52, Wins 31 (60%), Out $3029, In $3636.70, Profit $607.70 (20.0%)
Oct: Races 34, Wins 24 (71%), Out $1997, In $2384.40, Profit $387.40 (19.4%)
Total: Races 125, Wins 79 (63%), Out $7284, In $8602.50, Profit $1318.50 (18.1%)

Strategy 2:

Aug: Races 28, Wins 19 (68%), Out $1628, In $1945.20, Profit $317.20 (19.5%)
Sep: Races 32, Wins 21 (66%), Out $1913, In $2486.70, Profit $573.70 (30%)
Oct: Races 14, Wins 10 (71%), Out $855, In $833.40, Loss $16.60 (2%)
Total: Races 74, Wins 50 (68%), Out $4396, In $5265.30, Profit $869.30 (19.8%)

Strategy 3:

Aug: Races 10, Wins 6 (60%), Out $600, In $796, Profit $196 (32.6%)
Sep: Races 8, Wins 6 (75%), Out $480, In $864, Profit $384 (80%)
Oct: Races 4, Wins 4 (100%), Out $240, In $392, Profit $152 (63.3%)
Total: Races 22, Wins 16 (73%), Out $1320, In $2052, Profit $732 (55.5%)
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  #57  
Old 2nd November 2007, 10:17 AM
Sportz Sportz is offline
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Okay, I've done a bit more research. I decided to test out a couple of different staking methods on the betting strategy races, because those are the races I think are most suitable for backing the top 2 raters. Firstly, I went over all the strategy 1 selections and I bet exactly the same amount per race as I did with the original rules, but this time I simply saved on the shorter priced selection and I bet all of the rest on the longer priced runner. And then, I also worked out what the result would have been just using plain old level stakes - $30 on both selections no matter what price.

Here are the results:

Strategy 1 - Out $7284, In $8602.50, Profit $1318.50 (18.1%)
Back/Save - Out $7284, In $8610.60, Profit $1326.60 (18.2%)
Level stake - Out $7500, In $8883.00, Profit $1383.00 (18.4%)

So there you go. 3 very different staking methods and the end result was VERY similar with level stakes coming out just slightly in front. Interesting.



And here are some more stats from the strategy 1 races since August.

Top rated: 125, Wins 51, Return $147.20, Profit $22.20 (17.8%)
2nd rated: 125, Wins 28, Return $148.90, Profit $23.90 (19.1%)


Shortest priced: 126*, Wins 50, Return $139.70, Profit $13.70 (10.8%)
Longest priced: 124, Wins 29, Return $156.40, Profit $32.40 (26.1%)

(* one race had equal priced runners, so I included both of them in the shortest priced category)

That's certainly food for thought. 26.1% profit for the longer priced runner as opposed to just 10.8% profit for the shorter price. Something to look at for the future.
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  #58  
Old 2nd November 2007, 10:26 AM
Sportz Sportz is offline
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Now here's another betting strategy to look at. It's similar to Strategy 3, but not as selective. It's an idea I've been looking at for a while and it seems to work.

Strategy 4:

(1) Concentrate on races where the C/W RT selection and the FRM RT selection are two different horses. There must be one sole selection for each method, no equal selections.

(2) Back both runners, providing that they are the first two horses listed in the ratings. Also, the top rater must have at least 30 points and the 2nd top rater has at least 15 points.

(3) Again, only bet if the top two ratings add up to no more than 65 points.

(4) Bet the same amount on both selections. For the purpose of this exercise, we'll bet $30 on each runner, so we're betting roughly what we bet on the other three strategies.

Here's a recent example:
Quote:
MVAL 6 (AAMI VASE)
RT . ODDS . HORSE
33 . $3.0 . 2 BARBARICUS
30 . $3.3 . 1 MARCHING

12 . $8.3 . 3 DAVCON
10 . $10.0 . 12 THESANDMANCAN
10 . $10.0 . 6 KIBBUTZ
3 . $33.3 . 5 ON THE WARPATH
-----
2 . $50.0 . 7 PROTESTA
1 . $100.0 . 9 BEST BEWARE
1 . $100.0 . 13 TRULY BEAUTIFUL

C/W RT: 1 MARCHING ( 1-2-6-3 )
FRM RT: 2 BARBARICUS ( 2-12-1-3 )

MULTIS: ( 1,2,3,6,12 ) OR ( 1,2 – 1,2,3,5,6,7,12 )

As you can see, Marching was the C/W RT selection and Barbaricus was the FRM RT selection, and they were the top two rated runners in the race. This is the type of race we're looking for with this strategy.

Unlike the other strategies, we're betting equal amounts on both runners. This means that on the odd occasion, you might actually lose money on a race despite getting the winner, but it also means that you can get a great result if a good priced selection comes home.

Results so far this season using Unitab divs:

Aug: Races 12, Wins 7 (58%), Out $720, In $912, Profit $192 (26.7%)
Sep: Races 14, Wins 10 (71%), Out $840, In $1305, Profit $465 (55.4%)
Oct: Races 12, Wins 11 (92%), Out $720, In $1278, Profit $558 (77.5%)
Total: Races 38, Wins 28 (74%), Out $2280, In $3495, Profit $1215 (53.3%)



After looking at the past 3 months results, I guess my recommendation would probably be to use the Strategy 1 selections in conjunction with either Strategy 3 or Strategy 4.

Last edited by Sportz : 2nd November 2007 at 10:31 AM.
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