Hi GG,

Sorry, but perhaps you meant 'must only except fixed minimum odds on a bet' rather than '...must make a fixed minimum profit on that bet' ? The former is a wise move but the latter an impossibility. No TAB or Bookie offers 'fixed profit' or 'constant profit' per bet. If only that was possible !!

What you have said about a bank however, is only too true.

Cheers.

Hi Kenchar,

Congrats on your systems... I think I'm still a little bit away from where you are, but hopefully not too far....

The point I was trying to make (albeit badly) was that betting a fixed takeout doesn't change the odds or the risk. GG's implication (or at least the way I read it) was that betting a fixed takeout somehow changed the odds / risk situation.

I suppose it also depends upon your definition of risk. To me, "risk" has nothing to do with the amount that I'm placing on a particular bet.

Cheers,
Chris.

Congrats from me too, Kenchar.

The hard part, from my perspective, of what you are doing is the discipline of stopping when you have reached your goal (or your stop point if losing). Everything I read about gambling seems to indicate that those who make a living from it are very limited in their number of bets --- and very disciplined in their betting. No tips, no hunches, no saying "Wow, I'm having a good day, therefore... and so on".

If you have that sort of discipline, I agree it is not too diffficult to get a few placings on any given day, and you have made your money !!

CRASH
Thanks for reinterpurting what I was trying to say. Each of us will have acceptable minimum odds that we are prepared to take.

STEBBO
"The point I was trying to make (albeit badly) was that betting a fixed takeout doesn't change the odds or the risk. GG's implication (or at least the way I read it) was that betting a fixed takeout somehow changed the odds / risk situation."

I'm definatly not implying that.
The odds about a horse only makes for a rosier result (should it be a winning bet) as the risk is the same whether the horse is the odds on pop or 100/1+. However we all know that favourates win a far greater percentage of races than 100/1 outsiders.
Knowing which fav's are winners is another art.

GG

__________________
RACES ARE LIKE BUSES, THERE WILL BE ANOTHER ALONG IN A MINUTE

MERRIGUY

Thats the difference of betting serious to make a living and hobby betting to make a profit

__________________
RACES ARE LIKE BUSES, THERE WILL BE ANOTHER ALONG IN A MINUTE

Well I'm glad to see this thread has sparked some healthy discussions. I presume the short oddds about Covertly had something to do with it??? anyway the situation after 4 weeks is as follows:
15 bets
7 wins
Returns = 20.25 units
Profit 5.25 units
= 35% POT

Yesterday ALMOST 100% success with Lionheart only beaten short half head.

As always any feedback is welcome

On 2003-12-28 09:48, GeneralGym wrote:
STEBBO
"The point I was trying to make (albeit badly) was that betting a fixed takeout doesn't change the odds or the risk. GG's implication (or at least the way I read it) was that betting a fixed takeout somehow changed the odds / risk situation."

I'm definatly not implying that.
The odds about a horse only makes for a rosier result (should it be a winning bet) as the risk is the same whether the horse is the odds on pop or 100/1+.

Hello GG,

I'm curious as to how you define "risk" for this statement to be true????

Cheers,
Chris.

I was wondering about that too Chris but couldn't be bothered asking! 100/1 definitely has higher risk that even money (it's that old longshot bias thingy again!)

__________________
"Computers can do that????" - Homer Simpson

If I've rated a 100/1 shot higher in order than an even money conveyance, the even money conveyance would rate as a higher risk to me :wink:

Risk of the bet:
All bets once placed share the same risk factor whether 100/1 or odds on.

"Chances" of the bet being successful are obviously greater on the shorter priced runners than the 100/1.

"Risk" is not defined by the ability or chances of the animal but by numerous factors.
Injury during race, bad ride, held up, forced wide, poor start.......etc etc

GG