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#51
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Quote:
Tomorrow my friend. And I might also get you,if you choose to reveal,post your updated team ratings after round 1. |
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#52
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Still a work in progress Mo, but this should be pretty close to the mark:
120 Port Adel 117 St Kilda 117 West Coast 111 Geelong 111 Brisbane 108 Sydney 105 Melbourne 105 Fremantle 96 Carlton 93 Adelaide 90 Collingwood 90 Essendon 90 Kangaroos 90 W. Bulldogs 72 Richmond 69 Hawthorn Going through them, I've adjusted Port Adelaide down. Think they're still a bit rusty. Despite the loss, I was still impressed by St Kilda, but took 3 points off for no Reiwoldt. West Coast and Geelong both did much as I expected so they stay the same. Brisbane surprised me I must admit and I've increased their rating. Could have gone a few points higher but no Charman for two weeks. Sydney did as expected and Melbourne and Fremantle were both impressive enough to increase their rating. Last edited by Sportz : 29th March 2005 at 08:39 PM. |
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#53
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Brisbane 115
Pt.Adel 110 West C'st 104 Geelong 99 Melbourne 96 St.Kilda 95 Sydney 94 Fremantle 91 Adelaide 89 Kangaroo 88 Carlton 86 Essendon 84 Coll'wood 79 Bulldogs 68 Hawthorn 56 Richmond 55 |
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#54
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2005 Futures based on Sportnut ratings.
Footy Team - 8 - 4 - GF - Prem Port Power 1.01 1.15 1.80 2.70 St Kilda ... 1.03 1.30 2.25 3.80 West Coast 1.05 1.40 2.75 5.20 Geelong ... 1.25 2.70 5.60 12 Sydney ... 1.25 2.50 6.10 15 Brisbane .. 1.50 4.20 8.50 20 Carlton .. 1.65 5.20 13.5 40 Melbourne. 2.10 8.90 20.0 50 Collingw'd 2.20 9.70 25.0 80 Essendon . 2.30 10.6 27.0 80 Fremantle. 2.75 16.0 40.0 100 Adelaide . 3.20 20.0 50.0 150 Kangaroos. 17.0 300. 1000 none Bulldogs .. 22.0 500. 1000 none Richmond . 100. none none none Hawthorn . 250. none none none Your ratings suggest that there are only 3 contenders this year,but you're formula assessed prices give chances to many no hopers. Your personal prices are much closer but still somewhat generous with the top 3. Even disregarding hindsight,a major error seems to have been made in Brisbanes assessed rating.Especially when it comes up with $1.50 to make the 8. |
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#55
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Mo, after last year's GF, I made the judgement that 2004 had been Brisbane's last chance at the top and they were on the way down. I certainly made the judgement that they wouldn't be finishing ahead of Port Adelaide in this year's premiership. Well, I'm still sticking to that (for now).
Port Adelaide didn't start well, but I think they have a habit of slow starts. I remember a couple of years ago, they lost the first 2 matches and still won the minor premiership. Brisbane certainly went well against St Kilda, but remember St Kilda were leading before Reiwoldt went off and a 23 point win for the Lions against the Saints at the Gabba is nothing unusual considering past form at that ground. Brisbane has a chance at AAMI stadium this week and if they win, I might have to make another adjustment, but for now I'm quite happy to have the teams this way: Top Winning Chances Port Adel St Kilda West Coast Next Best Winning Chances Brisbane Geelong Sydney Good Top 8 Chances Melbourne Fremantle Carlton Rough Top 8 Chances Collingwood Essendon Adelaide W.Bulldogs Kangaroos Wooden Spoon Chances Richmond Hawthorn |
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#56
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My main concern is the final 8 prices.
That Brisbane be a $1.50 chance and Carlton be a $1.65 Both can make it but I know which of the 2 seems overs! |
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#57
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2005 Futures based on Sportnut ratings after Round-1.
Footy Team - 8 - 4 - GF - Prem Port Power 1.05 1.50 2.40 4.00 West Coast 1.02 1.30 2.45 4.35 St Kilda . 1.07 1.60 2.80 5.00 Brisbane . 1.15 2.20 4.45 9.00 Geelong .. 1.17 2.25 4.50 9.20 Sydney ... 1.18 2.30 5.30 12.00 Fremantle. 1.35 3.75 8.55 20 Melbourne. 1.50 4.50 9.80 23 Carlton .. 2.85 18.0 45.0 125 Bulldogs . 5.00 44.0 125. 500 Adelaide . 5.65 66.0 125. 500 Kangaroos. 5.65 66.0 166. 660 Essendon . 7.05 66.0 200. 800 Collingw'd 8.40 128. 250. 1000 Richmond . 250. none none none Hawthorn . 660. none none none It seems the Final 8 pretty much picks itself although the actual order needs to be determined. Perhaps Sportznut,you could sell your Carlton ticket to the highest bidder. |
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#58
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I only had $10 on them Mo. I got a bit carried away during the Wizard Cup GF. Carlton was winning and because it wasn't a premiership game, the final 8 premiership betting was still left open. I thought they would probably shorten dramatically in the betting if they won the game, so I decided to just have a small bet on the 'overs'. My bigger bets for the 8 were on West Coast, Geelong and Sydney and they've all started with wins so not too bad there.
Last edited by Sportz : 31st March 2005 at 12:13 PM. |
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#59
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Yeah Mo. I think I can forget about that $10 bet. Looks like they're probably going to lose to Essendon. At the moment they're behind by 28 points despite having 2 more scoring shots!!! Seriously, teams just don't kick 15 goals 3 behinds like the Bombers have tonight.
Last edited by Sportz : 1st April 2005 at 08:38 PM. |
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#60
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.....then again.
Never in doubt. ![]() |
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