Smartgambler
Pro-Punter

Go Back   OZmium Sports Betting and Horse Racing Forums > Archive > AFL Australian Rules Football Forum
User Name
Password
Register FAQ Search Today's Posts Mark all topics as read

To advertise on these
forums, e-mail us.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
  #51  
Old 29th March 2005, 05:41 PM
moeee moeee is offline
Suspended
 
Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: Melbourne
Posts: 5,359
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by moeee
Spends 6 months throwing money away on the greyhounds and then tries to update his footy database 3 days before the season starts!

Sorry Sportz.I'll give you my prices before this round is over,hopefully.
But you'll get them!


Tomorrow my friend.
And I might also get you,if you choose to reveal,post your updated team ratings after round 1.
Reply With Quote
  #52  
Old 29th March 2005, 08:09 PM
Sportz Sportz is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 12,005
Default

Still a work in progress Mo, but this should be pretty close to the mark:

120 Port Adel
117 St Kilda
117 West Coast
111 Geelong
111 Brisbane
108 Sydney
105 Melbourne
105 Fremantle
96 Carlton
93 Adelaide
90 Collingwood
90 Essendon
90 Kangaroos
90 W. Bulldogs
72 Richmond
69 Hawthorn

Going through them, I've adjusted Port Adelaide down. Think they're still a bit rusty. Despite the loss, I was still impressed by St Kilda, but took 3 points off for no Reiwoldt. West Coast and Geelong both did much as I expected so they stay the same. Brisbane surprised me I must admit and I've increased their rating. Could have gone a few points higher but no Charman for two weeks. Sydney did as expected and Melbourne and Fremantle were both impressive enough to increase their rating.

Last edited by Sportz : 29th March 2005 at 08:39 PM.
Reply With Quote
  #53  
Old 29th March 2005, 08:39 PM
moeee moeee is offline
Suspended
 
Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: Melbourne
Posts: 5,359
Default Here's mine!

Brisbane 115
Pt.Adel 110
West C'st 104
Geelong 99
Melbourne 96
St.Kilda 95
Sydney 94
Fremantle 91
Adelaide 89
Kangaroo 88
Carlton 86
Essendon 84
Coll'wood 79
Bulldogs 68
Hawthorn 56
Richmond 55
Reply With Quote
  #54  
Old 30th March 2005, 12:24 PM
moeee moeee is offline
Suspended
 
Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: Melbourne
Posts: 5,359
Default Finally

2005 Futures based on Sportnut ratings.

Footy Team - 8 - 4 - GF - Prem

Port Power 1.01 1.15 1.80 2.70
St Kilda ... 1.03 1.30 2.25 3.80
West Coast 1.05 1.40 2.75 5.20
Geelong ... 1.25 2.70 5.60 12
Sydney ... 1.25 2.50 6.10 15
Brisbane .. 1.50 4.20 8.50 20
Carlton .. 1.65 5.20 13.5 40
Melbourne. 2.10 8.90 20.0 50
Collingw'd 2.20 9.70 25.0 80
Essendon . 2.30 10.6 27.0 80
Fremantle. 2.75 16.0 40.0 100
Adelaide . 3.20 20.0 50.0 150
Kangaroos. 17.0 300. 1000 none
Bulldogs .. 22.0 500. 1000 none
Richmond . 100. none none none
Hawthorn . 250. none none none

Your ratings suggest that there are only 3 contenders this year,but you're formula assessed prices give chances to many no hopers.
Your personal prices are much closer but still somewhat generous with the top 3.
Even disregarding hindsight,a major error seems to have been made in Brisbanes assessed rating.Especially when it comes up with $1.50 to make the 8.
Reply With Quote
  #55  
Old 30th March 2005, 01:23 PM
Sportz Sportz is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 12,005
Default

Mo, after last year's GF, I made the judgement that 2004 had been Brisbane's last chance at the top and they were on the way down. I certainly made the judgement that they wouldn't be finishing ahead of Port Adelaide in this year's premiership. Well, I'm still sticking to that (for now).

Port Adelaide didn't start well, but I think they have a habit of slow starts. I remember a couple of years ago, they lost the first 2 matches and still won the minor premiership. Brisbane certainly went well against St Kilda, but remember St Kilda were leading before Reiwoldt went off and a 23 point win for the Lions against the Saints at the Gabba is nothing unusual considering past form at that ground.

Brisbane has a chance at AAMI stadium this week and if they win, I might have to make another adjustment, but for now I'm quite happy to have the teams this way:

Top Winning Chances
Port Adel
St Kilda
West Coast

Next Best Winning Chances
Brisbane
Geelong
Sydney

Good Top 8 Chances
Melbourne
Fremantle
Carlton

Rough Top 8 Chances
Collingwood
Essendon
Adelaide
W.Bulldogs
Kangaroos

Wooden Spoon Chances
Richmond
Hawthorn
Reply With Quote
  #56  
Old 30th March 2005, 03:50 PM
moeee moeee is offline
Suspended
 
Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: Melbourne
Posts: 5,359
Default

My main concern is the final 8 prices.
That Brisbane be a $1.50 chance and Carlton be a $1.65
Both can make it but I know which of the 2 seems overs!
Reply With Quote
  #57  
Old 31st March 2005, 10:40 AM
moeee moeee is offline
Suspended
 
Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: Melbourne
Posts: 5,359
Default For Sportznuts fans

2005 Futures based on Sportnut ratings after Round-1.

Footy Team - 8 - 4 - GF - Prem

Port Power 1.05 1.50 2.40 4.00
West Coast 1.02 1.30 2.45 4.35
St Kilda . 1.07 1.60 2.80 5.00
Brisbane . 1.15 2.20 4.45 9.00
Geelong .. 1.17 2.25 4.50 9.20
Sydney ... 1.18 2.30 5.30 12.00
Fremantle. 1.35 3.75 8.55 20
Melbourne. 1.50 4.50 9.80 23

Carlton .. 2.85 18.0 45.0 125
Bulldogs . 5.00 44.0 125. 500
Adelaide . 5.65 66.0 125. 500
Kangaroos. 5.65 66.0 166. 660
Essendon . 7.05 66.0 200. 800
Collingw'd 8.40 128. 250. 1000
Richmond . 250. none none none
Hawthorn . 660. none none none

It seems the Final 8 pretty much picks itself although the actual order needs to be determined.
Perhaps Sportznut,you could sell your Carlton ticket to the highest bidder.
Reply With Quote
  #58  
Old 31st March 2005, 11:46 AM
Sportz Sportz is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 12,005
Default

I only had $10 on them Mo. I got a bit carried away during the Wizard Cup GF. Carlton was winning and because it wasn't a premiership game, the final 8 premiership betting was still left open. I thought they would probably shorten dramatically in the betting if they won the game, so I decided to just have a small bet on the 'overs'. My bigger bets for the 8 were on West Coast, Geelong and Sydney and they've all started with wins so not too bad there.

Last edited by Sportz : 31st March 2005 at 12:13 PM.
Reply With Quote
  #59  
Old 1st April 2005, 08:28 PM
Sportz Sportz is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 12,005
Thumbs down

Yeah Mo. I think I can forget about that $10 bet. Looks like they're probably going to lose to Essendon. At the moment they're behind by 28 points despite having 2 more scoring shots!!! Seriously, teams just don't kick 15 goals 3 behinds like the Bombers have tonight.

Last edited by Sportz : 1st April 2005 at 08:38 PM.
Reply With Quote
  #60  
Old 1st April 2005, 09:21 PM
Sportz Sportz is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 12,005
Default

.....then again.

Never in doubt.
Reply With Quote
Reply


Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

vB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is On
Forum Jump



All times are GMT +10. The time now is 12:51 AM.


Powered by: vBulletin Version 3.0.3
Copyright ©2000 - 2025, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
©2008 OZmium Pty. Ltd. All rights reserved . ACN 091184655