Possibly many have glazed over this rather important principle.

The more trials (bets) you have the more likely you will actually have the REAL performance point of your given method. Knowing what your real performance point is will enable you to trust your system/method to perform to that long term mark while riding out the deviation from such performance point.

The results of a system with a specific performance, as they appear one after the other is random, that is, the procession of results cannot be predicted. All that can be predicted is the over all performance (given you have a large enough sample to predict it accurately and don't change the method of application).

The volatility of individual (smaller group) of results is then the issue that most punters grapple with. To give example, long term our IR strike rate is 26.8% for the top pick based on 50,000+ races published and double that for our internal records, so something that I would consider to be a solid sample size. Yet, this strike rate has fluctuated on daily bases from 7% to 55%. On monthly bases this has recorded fluctuations from 24.5% to 29.7%. On Quarterly basis the fluctuation is less and yearly is less again.

Emotionally most people can handle the day when the strike rate reaches 55%, no problems there but as soon as we get a day like 7% the questions come out, whats wrong, whats broken, you shouldn't be having those horses on top, and those other horses should be ... and on it goes. To be honest, I am the first one to wonder! Yet, NOTHING is broken, what is happening is a random deviation which can and do last for days until a correction occurs.

I and those with understanding and confidence let these days/results wash over and move on, those that don't understand immediately start adjusting their methods, and moving their longterm performance point without even knowing what it is. Eventually this leads them to questioning every selection that looses and ends up in them giving up and moving on. Sadly, it is quite possible that many had the punting grail they still search for in their hands already and they threw it away.

I know the risks associated with my betting methods in terms of run of outs, bank draw-down both average and longest and volatility/performance in groups of bets samples because Axis has a module that performs these calculations and I wouldn't be without it; it has saved me thousands.

__________________
Michal - Ratings2Win Pty Ltd
R2W Axis - Axis is Australia's leading horse racing software and database;
with sophisticated form analysis tools and accurate horse performance ratings for TAB meetings.
http://www.ratings2win.com.au/

Nicely put Michal. Like you say, it's having a long term outlook with an iron clad confidence and discipline to match.

Brilliant post Michal. Illuminating stuff on a Monday morning.

My thoughts are that if we can manage to separate the following tasks and execute them like a 'professional', we will be able to better manage and exploit the concepts of probability and randomness, with respect to this 'game'.

1. research / gathering evidence - like a scientist
2. selection amongst different options - like a business manager
3. execution of the strategy - like a machine

Given that most of us are not resourced up to manage all three simultaneously and/or at a consistently high standard, outsourcing some (all?) may be the answer. We are lucky enough today to witness the kind of technologies and relatively low price points that make this achievable.

If this is the case, perhaps all we would then need is some direction and clarity from time to time to keep the plates spinning in the right direction, the bank increasing etc. Better still, make the impact of 1 - 3 real-time, and put it in the palm of our hand to oversee. You may just have a 'game changer'.

A blue ocean of opportunity?


Cheers LG

__________________
The trick isn't finding profitable angles, it's finding ones you will bet through the ups and downs - UB

A nice set of Racing Maxims there LG.

The true professionals do just that, I should note that to be a professional you just have to behave like one, you don't have to look forward to being one when your bank grows. Do small things in a great way; that way you'll mange to do great things in a great way without any problems.

__________________
Michal - Ratings2Win Pty Ltd
R2W Axis - Axis is Australia's leading horse racing software and database;
with sophisticated form analysis tools and accurate horse performance ratings for TAB meetings.
http://www.ratings2win.com.au/

I probably misunderstand this but are you saying that unless one has 50,000 trials then no bet should be made.

My problem with that is that I,d be dead of old age before any bet could ever be made.

Cheers.

Hi Darky,

No, that is not what I was saying. My example of our top IR rating was to illustrate that having such a large sample, it is much easier accept the bad days as nothing other then deviation which is what they are.

Providing that a method is based on sound principal the sample can be far less; however more is always better. It all depends on the person as to what it takes to convince him/her that their method is solid long term; and in reality that is the only person that needs convincing; yourself

__________________
Michal - Ratings2Win Pty Ltd
R2W Axis - Axis is Australia's leading horse racing software and database;
with sophisticated form analysis tools and accurate horse performance ratings for TAB meetings.
http://www.ratings2win.com.au/

Thanks Michal.

By the way - quite a nice price on Godfrey today.

Thanks

Aside from the tip, Godfrey was Top rated on R2W: Speed Rating, Consensus rating, PkD rating, RV rating and an Indicator with our IR rating having it 2nd pick. A lot of opinions pointing to same one horse are hard to ignore.

__________________
Michal - Ratings2Win Pty Ltd
R2W Axis - Axis is Australia's leading horse racing software and database;
with sophisticated form analysis tools and accurate horse performance ratings for TAB meetings.
http://www.ratings2win.com.au/

Just reading the above statement, if you think about how ppl generally calculate their avg. payoff. Maybe that part of their wagering equation is flawed from the get go.

From the 'evidence' of the ratio of successful and unsucessful punters one could say that sadly most punters wagering is flawed in some way or another.

The more I learn about this game the more Im convinced that in the scheme of importance a successful system is a distant second important factor. The mental frame is first and of foremost importance. Everyone can loose with a flawed system, most punters however can't even win with a profitable one.

Firstly most punters don't have a profitable method in the first place as most are working of poorly researched and tested evidence.
Secondly even if the evidence was there they wouldn't believe it anyway and expect that it will fail at some stage. It must, can't possibly continue.
Thirdly most punters expectation is centered around unrealistic forecasts fostered by most of the industry and well meaning colleagues that don't disclose the full picture and generally only talk about the good times.

When the Third doesn't happen, (in good time), the Second point comes up and it is concluded that the First has happened and its time to move on. The interesting part of the exercise is that most will then employ the exact same methods to obtain the next best thing and expect different results.

What most punters don't realise is that their frame of mind is one of the most important of tools they have; if they subconsciously approach their betting with the disbelief of winning, how on earth would their conscious mind prove its brother wrong. Self sabotage is abundant as a result. Ever did something while punting that you knew you shouldn't (in the light of clear thinking) but you did it anyway? Chased losses? Ignored bets? Listened to others? So on and so on. As a result each time this is done your internal conflict is resolved on the side of your underlying belief and you are proven correct. Told you so ..... Finally the more they change and search the more out of control the above. The dizzy heights of success can be followed by depths of despair all in just a few days; until there is a point when they give up and take a break, most return with a clear mind later to begin the slide downwards again when their expectations are not meet. The interesting part of the exercise is that most will then employ the exact same methods to obtain the next best thing and expect different results.

Punters have to get their mind into a correct frame, the only way I know how to is to prove beyond reasonable doubt that their method works (on paper) and in real life without pressure of actually punting, and then approach their punt in a consistent manner regardless of short term results. That takes resolve that most don't have! That coupled with a realistic expectation and understanding and good approach to wagering will give you what you need. Sadly our success has nothing to do with the amount of work you put in if your tools or frame of mind are flawed.

There is a lot more to this then I can write here, but I hope that I have conveyed enough. It certainly is something that we try to assist our clients with.

__________________
Michal - Ratings2Win Pty Ltd
R2W Axis - Axis is Australia's leading horse racing software and database;
with sophisticated form analysis tools and accurate horse performance ratings for TAB meetings.
http://www.ratings2win.com.au/