This weekend has finally cemented something for me. Makybe is a defier. She will defy logic. You can try and quantify the situation and state cases as to why she won;t win but when it comes to the crunch she always seems to defy logic and win anyway.

It is not a 2 horse race. Horses don;t go round in a cox plate to make up numbers - they are all there to win. Heres the scenario. Fully wound up at there utmost peak fitness, makybe is a superior animal to lad of the manor. Full stop. Therefore, going on a nose loss to lad when they wern;t peaking then makybe beats him at their peaks. If anything beats her it is one of the internationals. I don't think you can discount mummify, if you go along the pace bias theme.

Yep, I'll be the first to admit Hotel Grand was the surprise for me at the weekend. Not sure if he'll handle the next step to the Cox plate yet Duritz. Some really stiff opposition there, wouldn't rate him a chance at all in that. The Guineas is his best bet and judging by Bookmakers fixed odds markets (if that's any guide) he'll run at Caulfield next weekend. He's a chance in that.

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i agree with duritz that the small field will mean diva wont have to come 10 wide round the turn and she wont be 20lengths off them.

i would like to know why you feel super kid and greys inn r better than lad n fields?

The knockout horse, if he starts, is confectioner.
i thought his run was enormous to come flying home with the diva when he got smashed at the top of the straight.

i dont know, absolute. i have never ever thought confectioner was a horse that could win a race like the cox plate. i think the horse is too soft and even though i agree with u that its run on the weekend was good i dont think it can win a cox plate. also if it is to win they will have to position the horse a lot better than on the weekend. there is no way it can come from behind makybe to win.....no horse in the race will.

yeah i know.

i was just really impressed by confectioners run, i still reken the diva will win but if something goes wrong confectioner could run a good race.

makybe diva will win by a long neck just beating lad of the manor. lad will be 2 in front at the turn and the diva will pick him up just in time.

Hi absolute, re Super kid and Greys Inn, here's their profiles:

Super Kid:

20-4-4-0

Most recent three wins have been:

18-01-2004 Group 1 1600m at Shatin carrying 57.3 kgs, beating Hidden Dragon and Bowman's crossing. Hidden Dragon is a Group 3 winner and is group 2 and 1 placed, Hidden Dragon placed in Group 1's multiple times.

30-05-2004 Group 1 2400m at Shatin carrying 57.3 again, beating River Dancer and Elegant Fashion. (the aussie). Both of those horses are group 1 winners in their own right, and both multiple group 2 winners.

11-02-05 Premier (top Group 1 events in HK) winner in HK beating the Duke and Magnifier, both either Group 1-2 winners or placegetters in their own right.


Greys Inn has only had one HK run, running 2nd to Vengeance of Rain beaten 0.5 lengths. He is a multiple group 1 winner in SAf. Thatday he ran 2nd in HK, Super Kid ran 4th.

Super Kid's run at Caulfield was enormous. 1400m is too short for him, 1600m++ is where he warms up yet first run in Australia he charges home, strongest on line to fail by less than a length behind Barely A Moment, who previous start had run Makybe Diva to a head giving her about 3 kgs weight.

Lad of the Manor has not won a Group 1. He has won three Group 2's but he is arguably at the top of his game right now. Doubt there's any more improvement in him, whereas Super Kid does have improvement, and as I said, Super Kid has won 3 Group 1s.

That's why they're better horses.

Duritz to be perfectly honest with you I am more worried about Greys Inn and Super Kid than I am about anyone else that could be in the race. The race in HK when Greys Inn ran Vengance of Rain to a half length did he come from off the speed or was he sitting right there on the pace I honestly cannot remember and for some reason I thought he flashed home.

We'll hold you to that.

Made ground, Raw. Came from 9th early, 8th turn. Very strong and was picking the winner up well on the line. They both went very well, were both strong on the line and both pulling away. Would love to see the sectionals, would think greys inn's finals would be very impressive.

That impressed me as a very, very high strength race. The way they went, both of them bolting strongly on the line I thought my God they're going well. Two very good horses.

I personally think Greys is a better horse than Super Kid, but Super Kid's run at the 1400m 1st up was enormous for a miler. For me that proves the quality.

The expert form ratings have them really strong too. Both of them rate better than all the Aussie chances, except for the Diva of course, but I seriously doubt her 126 rating can be reproduced at 2040m. I suspect she is an absolute max of about 122-3 that trip. Best she's ever done career so far that trip is 121 winning the Australia Cup. That may actually be her 2000m max. If it is, she's very vulnerable to the HK raiders. However here 121 will beat Fields and Lad if she repeats it, Fields best rating is 121 winning his Cox plate, Lad rated about 120 or so in the Feehan. They give her weight, of course, which would be the difference.

Super Kid has a 125 in HK and regular 121's. Greys Inn rated 123 behind Vengeance that day. If he goes 123 in Cox, it's over.

For your interest - Might and Power rated 127 in the Caul Cup. He's the best they've rated. Initially they thought Super Impose rated 128 but it was only about 124 when he won his Epsom.

Every year I've picked the best looking import and it's done the best out of them. It certainly doesn't work with Australian horses, but with the imports, they seem to race as good as they look. To test this theory I will let you know once I've seen them who my pick is. I would really upset a year or 2 ago they had this gorgeous chestnut over here i THOUGHT for the melbourne cup. He raced in a couple of group 1's and never really made any impression, but I would really have liked to have seen him in the big one.

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