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#61
26th October 2006, 07:08 PM
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Current Market
EL SEGUNDO 3.50 1.55 RACING TO WIN 3.50 1.55 GREY SWALLOW 9.00 2.77 MISS FINLAND 10.00 3.00 LAD OF THE MANOR 13.00 3.66 POMPEII RULER 15.00 4.11 RED DAZZLER 18.00 4.77 FIELDS OF OMAGH 21.00 5.44 OUR SMOKING JOE 21.00 5.44 AQUA DAMORE 26.00 6.55 CASUAL PASS 26.00 6.55 APACHE CAT 31.00 7.66 HONOR IN WAR 35.00 8.55 
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#62
26th October 2006, 07:17 PM
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As the market suggest EL Segundo the one to beat.
Racing To Win won't be suited MV but has improved so much this campaign that he should be a big danger. Miss Finland with her featherweight must rate a mention. Outside these 3 the rest of the field look pretty even. Lad Of The Manor luvs the valley & should give a great sight e/w.
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#63
27th October 2006, 04:22 AM
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I wouldn't be wiping Lad Of The Manor out of this. Only beaten once from 6 starts at the Valley [by Makybe Deva last year] and last start was tightened for room and checked in the running.
4 starts in now [needs that for a 7yr. old], so will be at peek fitness tomorrow as will Casual Pass with 5 runs in from a spell, likes the track and with 4 wins from 6 over this distance, can't be ignored. From b11 Casual Pass should head across and join the other 2 leaders in this, Apache Cat and Our Smoking Joe. Grey Swallow recently changed hands for $6m and has won 5 from 5 first up around this distance [and more], so a bit hard to handicap here for MV . Had a couple of unsuitable runs because the horse likes the pace on [races on the pace] according to the trainer and will have that here for sure. From b1 can settle just off the 3 leaders and then should make it's usual drawing away run that might be just too hard to catch. Adjusted times makes Honor in War [USA] a VERY quick horse over this distance and the O'Brien/Arnold combo is something to be wary of. So a big question mark over the Yankee as with Miss Finland and RTW who have never raced beyond 1600m. Apache Cat tried it last start [beyond 1600m] and did no good. El Segundo will come from behind, has the runs on the board for the track and distance and I'm ignoring his last run. My main pick here, but there are unknown values in this race [except the poor odds that will be on offer for El Segundo] that can't be really be handicapped. I'll be betting on the 2 value OS horses to win and having a couple of exotics. Good luck to all on Sat. Last edited by crash : 27th October 2006 at 04:51 AM.
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#64
27th October 2006, 07:33 AM
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Quote:
Add Grey Swallow. Looking at his O/S form have to have a saver.
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#65
27th October 2006, 09:20 AM
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Winning the tough [2 big up-hills in it] ********** Derby certainly puts Grey Swallow in this as the Cox is a [truly run] tough WFA race for tough horses [only], with MV having it's own up-hill to the finish. If the same horse comes out tomorrow that came out for the Derby, it'll will win by lengths [paraphrasing Lee Freedman's comments about the horse].
Miss Finland as a 3yr old is trying to do something only done once before 30yrs. ago. Carrying 46k [with a half-starved kiwi lass on board] won't make the horse go any faster than carrying 50 -55kg. Linda Cropp is a great NZ jockey but she is in unfamiliar territory here riding against Australia's best jockeys on their home turf on a quirky track. She also has had to lose 3kg for this. The way I see it, It'll all be in the running and who gets the right breaks at the right time from about 5 serious contenders: Casual Pass, Grey Swallow, El Segundo, Lad of the Manor or Pompeii Ruler. Last edited by crash : 27th October 2006 at 09:37 AM.
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#67
27th October 2006, 12:24 PM
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Nobody tipping Aqua D'amore nor Fields Of Omagh?
Here's what I sent to a mate earlier.... I'm looking at Fields Of Omagh as an eachway bet for the Cox Plate myself, as although he is old, he is sound, and the only horse in the race that's proven at the Valley in the Class. His last run was just behind them, so I think he's fit enough. Miss Finland will probably try tear away tactics again to try and win, but I think she'll be swamped. Racing To Win and El Segundo should be making their runs around the same time as Fields Of Omagh, I think they might find the turn at the Valley hard. I do not think Grey Swallow can win first up in this class at a track he's never raced on. It takes a very classy but fit horse to win a Cox Plate. I also think El Segundo poor value at the odds quoted. In summary for the Cox Plate, I think the value lies here: Racing To Win Fields Of Omagh Aqua D'Amore Glen Boss is the master at Group 1 level and he has a very good horse under him. Craig Williams is riding Fields of Omagh for the Hayes camp and they've opted to put Lisa Cropp on Miss Finland because of weight. Although Craig Williams botches a few rides, he will be desperate to win this. Kieren Fallon, the champion English jockey is on Aqua D'Amore, this horse keeps on surprising at good odds, and also keeps on improving. For what it's worth  P.S. At this point I'd be prepared to stick my neck out and say both Miss Finland and El Segundo won't run a place.
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RaceCensus - powerful system testing software. Now with over 430,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races! http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html *RaceCensus now updated to 31/01/2026 Video overview of RaceCensus here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg Last edited by Chrome Prince : 27th October 2006 at 12:26 PM.
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#68
27th October 2006, 02:32 PM
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I'd agree Chrome about Miss Finland not placing. A gut buster last start and the one before when she bolted and certainly has gone past her peak this prep. And your right too about Aqua D' amore [I should have made that 6 serious contenders in my post above].
The Turnbull was a good run and has a 2 1/2kg advantage in this. RTW won't find this a sit and sprint and is a big question mark at the distance in this tough affair and deserves far better odds. I wouldn't worry about Grey Swallow being first up though. Delta Blues [Jap. trainer] carrying top weight didn't do a bad job 'first up' last week and almost stole the Caulfield Cup ! As for 'class', Demott Weld described Grey Swallow as one of the best horses he has ever trained and Lee Freedman rates the horse as in the worlds top 5 [Melb. Age today] and the horse to beat that handles any condt. or tracks. Field of Omagh though has the same problem as Miss Finland ...History. One horse being too young and the other too old. FOO is now 9yrs. old and trying to win the Cox Plate. Sure he has a chance and is a tough horse, but I don't think he is over the odds the bookies have on him around 15/1. Miracles do happen though and either horse might win [or anything else in the race too] ! Last edited by crash : 27th October 2006 at 02:48 PM.
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#69
27th October 2006, 03:23 PM
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Quote:
Amended selections Grey Swallow Racing to Win Our Smoking Joe Pompeii Ruler Boxed Tri for $.5
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#70
27th October 2006, 03:43 PM
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Genius or Madness......
Personally.... I'm leaning towards the later.... 
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