Couldn't help myself:

Who has the lucky number 17?

Repeat thread readers (firstly: apologies for how lame it's been this year) would know about the number 17 factor. About one quarter of Cup runners share this feature BUT 10 of the last 12 winners had it. (Last year's didn't; the 2 races where it failed over that period were also the 2 slowest - no coincidence). I am, of course, talking about each runner's Conduit Mare Stamina figure. Way too complicated to go into just what that is here; if you're interested seek the "Is Dosage bunkum?" thread.

The lucky number 17 runners after third acceptances are:
AVILIUS⁷
SURPRISE BABY¹⁶
MIAMI BOUND²⁰
STEEL PRINCE²²
ASHRUN²⁹
SCHABAU⁴⁰

So it looks like four will make the final field, unless there are any scratchings or Hotham winners among them. Surprise Baby and Schabau are the only ones who are also on the top two rungs of 'the system' ladder currently. Can we call Surprise Baby the winner yet?

I was going to ask about the dosage when the final field was declared. Thanks for providing it earlier. Based on those with it:

AVILIUS - Not enough of the other factors to be considered a contender.
SURPRISE BABY - This stat brings this horse back into my list of contenders.
MIAMI BOUND - A total of 7 might have this one just edge in my selections given the dosage.
STEEL PRINCE - same as Miami bound. It may or may not get into my selection list after only scoring 7 in the total column.
ASHRUN- If it makes the 24 its in my list of contenders.
SCHABAU-If it makes the 24 its in my list of contenders.

Really looking forward to the final 24 and seeing the table of points.

I think the winning horse will have a score of 8 or higher. But I am willing to stretch it down to 7 if there are compelling reasons. Half the field currently has at least a score of 7 or higher if I counted right.

Cup nominees racing today:

Bendigo - Race 7 - 4:00PM Apiam Bendigo Cup (2400 METRES)

ZEBROWSKI (NZ)	25	$5.50
HAKY (IRE)	37	$26
PONDUS (GB)	39	$5
SARACEN KNIGHT (IRE)	43=	$6.50

If Zebrowski wins, the prizemoney should get him into 23rd in the Order of Entry. The rest will need to get at least a 1.5kg penalty to get into the field. They're all nominated for the Hotham and I had anticipated them going there instead (like Lord Belvedere and Azuro have). Scratchings closed a couple of hours ago, so it looks like they may have given up on the Melbourne Cup. I guess it only cost them $3k for their third declaration...

Results from today. Looks like Zebrowski will now need a couple to drop out to get a start. The remainder look like they've done their dash.


2400m Good4 BDGO CUP Group 3 $400,000

Horse	Order	Place	Price
PONDUS (GB)	39	2nd of 15	$3.8
HAKY (IRE)	37	3rd of 15	$12
SARACEN KNIGHT (IRE)	43=	4th of 15	$5.5
ZEBROWSKI (NZ)	25	5th of 15	$6

Results from the Hotham Stakes today. The winner is into the Melbourne Cup on Tuesday.


2500m Good4 HOTHAM HCP Group 3 $201,300

Horse	Order	Place	Price
ASHRUN (FR)	28	1st of 10	$5.5
SOUND (GER)	32	2nd of 10	$7.5
FUTURE SCORE (IRE)	42=	3rd of 10	$12
CARIF	35	5th of 10	$10
SCHABAU (GER)	39	6th of 10	$4.8
ADMIRE ROBSON (JPN)	42=	7th of 10	$5
AZURO (FR)	33	8th of 10	$81
PLATINUM INVADOR (NZ)	27	9th of 10	$51
HUSH WRITER (JPN)	29	10th of 10	$21

I've mentioned this Cup System over the last few years and it picked last year's winner. It's "Aspro's Melbourne Cup System", presumably soon to be posted by Racing & Sports:

Rule 1 - List any Cup acceptor placed in either the Caulfield Cup and Mackinnon Stakes (now irrelevant moved to finals day)
Verry Elleegant, Anthony Van Dyck, The Chosen One

Rule 2 - List any Cup acceptor placed 2nd, 3rd or 4th in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup
Miami Bound, Oceanex

Rule 3 - List any acceptor who was placed 1-2-3 in the Melbourne Cup at their last cup run
Vow And Declare, Prince Of Arran

Rule 4 - List the Lexus Stakes winner
Ashrun

Rule 5 - Delete any horse whose last run in the Melbourne Cup was an unplaced run.
Goodbye: The Chosen One

Rule 6 - Delete any horse who is aged 3yo or 7yo or older.
Goodbye: Prince Of Arran


So per this system, the winner comes from: Verry Elleegant, Anthony Van Dyck, Miamia Bound, Oceanex, Vow And Declare, and Ashrun.

There must be some doubt regarding Vow And Declare there, back-to-back winners are kinda rare...

Note also that it doesn't account for debuting foreign runners, which was considered a bit of a negative thing for a while, but is well and truly not as great an issue now. The only eligible debuting international this year though is Tiger Moth. Stratum Albium is out due to Rule 6. Both Master Of Reality - arguably, I guess - and Twilight Payment are omitted due to Rule 5.

Here is the average extra distance each barrier runs (based on the last 3 years since information has been publicly available):






I posted the below in the 2018 thread regarding barriers and it seemed to work out somewhat last year as well:

Since 2000:

First
<=B15: 83.33%
>B15: 16.67%

Top 2
<=B15: 83.33%
>B15: 16.67%

Top 3
<=B15: 81.48%
>B15: 18.52%

Top 4
<=B15: 81.94%
>B15: 18.06%

Were it random chance, going by the average field size over the past 18 editions (excluding those who didn't complete the race), it should be:
<=B15: 66.17%
>B15: 33.83%

5th position is where the outer barrier's results start to catch up to expectation. For those finishing exactly 5th, it's 50-50 whether they were drawn outside barrier 15 these past 18 years.

5th-7th: those in outside barriers are over-represented
<=B15: 55.46%
>B15: 44.44%

8th-14th: it seems to swing back
<=B15: 72.22%
>B15: 27.88%

remainder: and back again
<=B15: 56.41%
>B15: 43.52%

Does it go in the placings: good inside horses over-represented, then good outside horses over-represented, then dodgy inside horses over-represented, then dodgy outside horses over-represented?


What kind of outside-drawn horses overcome their misfortune and finish top-4? The 3 winners within the sample were <= 52kg. 11 of the 13 top-4 finishers were also <= $21 despite their draw.

Of the 140 finishers drawn outside barrier 15, the <= $21 rule eliminates 99 candidates and misses 1 second and 1 third (Jakkalberry and Red Cadeaux). Weight <= 54kg elimates a further 12 for no further top-4 misses.

The above might help with some borderline First-4 selections after the barrier draw...

Barrier draw:

Horse	Barrier	Weight
PRINCE OF ARRAN (GB)	1	54.5kg
MUSTAJEER (GB)	2	55kg
ANTHONY VAN DYCK (IRE)	3	58.5kg
VOW AND DECLARE	4	57kg
THE CHOSEN ONE (NZ)	5	53.5kg
FINCHE (GB)	6	54.5kg
SURPRISE BABY (NZ)	7	54.5kg
WARNING	8	53kg
STRATUM ALBION (GB)	9	55kg
AVILIUS (GB)	10	57kg
MASTER OF REALITY (IRE)	11	56kg
TWILIGHT PAYMENT (IRE)	12	55.5kg
MIAMI BOUND (NZ)	13	51kg
SIR DRAGONET (IRE)	14	55.5kg
VERRY ELLEEGANT (NZ)	15	55.5kg
RUSSIAN CAMELOT (IRE)	16	53.5kg
OCEANEX (NZ)	17	51.5kg
KING OF LEOGRANCE (FR)	18	53.5kg
DASHING WILLOUGHBY (GB)	19	54.5kg
PERSAN	20	51kg
STEEL PRINCE (IRE)	21	53.5kg
ETAH JAMES (NZ)	22	52.5kg
TIGER MOTH (IRE)	23	52.5kg
ASHRUN (FR)	24	53kg

Here are the results of "the system". NB - price movements will have to be monitored up until racetime to be fully accurate. Top two runs seem to do pretty well. Those with a 17 Stamina figure are also noted.

Horse	Total	Less than 8yo	Wgt < 57kg	Not a mare	<= $21 SP	< $16 in last	Wgtd < than in last	FS in last >= 10	Won Black Type	<=3L in last	<6 victories
SIR DRAGONET (IRE)	10	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
SURPRISE BABY (NZ) 17	10	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
RUSSIAN CAMELOT (IRE)	10	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
ASHRUN (FR) 17	10	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
TIGER MOTH (IRE)	10	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
FINCHE (GB)	9	1	1	1	1	1	0	1	1	1	1
MASTER OF REALITY (IRE)	8	1	1	1	0	1	1	0	1	1	1
KING OF LEOGRANCE (FR)	8	1	1	1	0	1	1	0	1	1	1
PERSAN	8	1	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	0
ANTHONY VAN DYCK (IRE)	7	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	1	1	0
VERRY ELLEEGANT (NZ)	7	1	1	0	1	1	0	1	1	1	0
STEEL PRINCE (IRE) 17	7	1	1	1	0	1	1	0	1	1	0
OCEANEX (NZ)	7	1	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	0
MIAMI BOUND (NZ) 17	7	1	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1
TWILIGHT PAYMENT (IRE)	6	0	1	1	0	1	1	0	1	1	0
DASHING WILLOUGHBY (GB)	6	1	1	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	1
PRINCE OF ARRAN (GB)	6	0	1	1	1	0	0	1	1	1	0
THE CHOSEN ONE (NZ)	6	1	1	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	0
WARNING	6	1	1	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	1
AVILIUS (GB) 17	5	1	0	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	0
VOW AND DECLARE	5	1	0	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	1
MUSTAJEER (GB)	5	0	1	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	1
STRATUM ALBION (GB)	5	0	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	1	0
ETAH JAMES (NZ)	4	0	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0

I beleive this year it will be won by one of the horses with 8 or higher. That leaves us with 9 selections.

SIR DRAGONET (IRE)
SURPRISE BABY (NZ)
RUSSIAN CAMELOT (IRE)
ASHRUN (FR)
TIGER MOTH (IRE)
FINCHE (GB)
MASTER OF REALITY (IRE)
KING OF LEOGRANCE (FR)
PERSAN

Based on these I would eliminate the following usiong the barrier:

ASHRUN
RUSSIAN CAMELOT
TIGER MOTH
KING OF LEOGRANCE
PERSAN

I would eliminate the following due to odds :

KING OF LEOGRANCE
PERSAN

I would remove the following from failing in previous Melb Cup attempts:

MASTER OF REALITY (Came 4th last year)
SURPRISE BABY (Came 5th last year)
FINCHE (Came 7th last year, 4th the year before)

I could almost be forgivable of the above rule this year due to COVID.

So what do we have left:

SIR DRAGONET (IRE)

If we include those who ran previously in a melbourne cup unplaced we are down to 4 horses:


SIR DRAGONET (IRE)
SURPRISE BABY
MASTER OF REALITY
FINCHE

My order of preference is :

Sire Dragonet
Suprise baby
Master of Reality

I'll risk Finche not be included after 2 failures already in the cup.

I am looking forward to seeing what others think.