On 2003-12-29 07:35, becareful wrote:
I was wondering about that too Chris but couldn't be bothered asking! 100/1 definitely has higher risk that even money (it's that old longshot bias thingy again!)

Cripes Becareful...

please don't start that one again... :roll:

:smile:

gawd, talk about tangents!!!!

how do you factor in the randwick track.

neck ticklers for tomorrow.

PR1-1 Twice
PR2-8 Nemchinova
PR4-1 Lakeside Rhythm
PR5-2 Tribal Secret
PR8-12 Ginger Gem

Running Total b4 these 15 bets -7 wins, POT 35%

Thought this thread had died but I see that still heaps of hits so will post the results.
Not a fantastic day, the 2yo lost all chance at the start. But still 2 winners $3.50 and $3.10 from 5 bets so wish I could do that permanently eh? anyway tally so far after 5 weeks:
20 bets
9 winners (45%)
Returns = 26.5 units (ave. $2.94, top fluc.)
= POT of 34.25%

This is slightly down on my previous 6 months performace, but better than my OVERALL results, but I'm happy. as usual any comments welcome

Good onya partypooper :smile:

Just a couple of constructive comments, which may help:

1) 2YO and unraced a real 'no-no' bet race as far as I'm concerned

2) Amazed to see you include Twice in your selections, if the filter was any different for that selection over others, suggest you review - I had her rated equal third, well behind my top rated So Long Syd.

Good luck partypooper, looks like you're getting there.



_________________
All the best from the West

Sandgroper :smile:

[ This Message was edited by: Sandgroper on 2004-01-04 09:56 ]

Sandgroper, thanks for the feed back. Yes I was expecting the flak about the unraced TYO, what can I say.... much of my selection method is gut feeling, taking many other things as well of course including breeding, though I am far from an expert in any. But the outcome is that I can make a profit OVERALL, (although I was wrong in this instance) if I try to intoduce mechanical filters perse' I seem to miss a few losers but miss some good winners as well, I guess the bottom line is I still haven't quite perfected the art yet.
Re: Twice, yes it and So long Syd very close but taking the line through Head West had Twice on top, but of course extra 200m + 3rd run back from a spell,......... why didn't I see it? easy in retrospect isn't it? Well I'll keep trying!!

Hi partypooper, re Twice - think you may have fallen into a trap I experienced some years back - "mid-week" form on a "Saturday".

If you look closely at Twice's runs, you will see that most of her runs have been "mid-week".

Generally speaking, I have found that "mid-week" form equates to around at least 1 length below similar form on "Saturdays".

You really need to critically review form, of horses performing well "mid-week" that are now racing on a "Saturday". Of course there are exceptions, but generally speaking, "mid-week" form does not hold up as well, on a "Saturday".

_________________
All the best from the West

Sandgroper :smile:

[ This Message was edited by: Sandgroper on 2004-01-04 20:32 ]

Hi partypooper. If you are serious about punting and truly base your selections on "gut feeling", give it away mate and put your money to better use, otherwise in the long run you will be just another stat.

__________________
Out in front - you make your own luck!

Speaking of comparing midweeks to sat. When i did form when working for rails bookies in syd with T.Page and B.Mchugh wed form you deducted 3 kgs from what they carried compared to sat.

Same as going from some 3 kg apprentice to L.Dittman, bit of a difference.