for gods sake the bloke takes a few knocks and never comes back. he posted things that many of us thought were not within the realms of possibility, we said so and so he left. his next chapter was on psychology? well geez i don't think we'll learn much there if the bloke leaves for good just because he copped a bit of criticism

It is almost criminal how a couple of days planned rest can quickly turn into the two busiest days of the month.


Selection and Staking.

Selection

Horse Racing is a sport of flesh and blood, it is not a numbers game and should not be played as such. Most that get involved in punting have a distinct respect for horse racing and horses right from the start. The training of them, the placing of horses into races, sorting out of Class, getting a grip on what is involved in obtaining odds and the amount to be bet.
It is the Basic Level at which we all started.

Following on comes much higher levels of enlightened Staking Methods, Ratings that we think we must addhere to, Systems to be nutted out and played, Sectional Times, Weight Differentals, it goes on and on until years later we are really no more wiser than when we started at that Basic Level.
And that is the level that has to be returned to.

Judgement

Class in a horse is only held in it's Fitness, and by the way that fitness is trained on or trained out. The Class differences of a horse when matched with the Class of others in it's race, in relation to where each runners Class lies on that day, in that race, and with the improvement expected in fitness on some runners mixed in with the expected decline of fitness of others, is the only Class that has to be studied.
The only way to get a true opinion of a horses Class and Fitness level is that the horse must have been Sighted and Studied in a previous race, to gauge it's Fitness and Class. You must have have a good understanding of at least one runner in a race, that you judge as being at a fitness good enough to hold his class, in the race that is being studied so you can gauge how to run off the other horses against it.
And that 'before seen' horse must be one of the runners that with expected fitness, match both the Class of the Race, and the Class of Horse that you determine one needs to be to take part at the finish of the race in direct relation to Distance.

It is from this analysis that selections are made.

One or two horses should walk out of the that Field Listing, with a couple dawdling behind them. They move to right, leaving the rest of the field behind them.
If the horse that brought you into this race is one of the first two that walked, then all well and good, but if it did not then it might come to your attention in a later race, so watch that horse with eyes not money.
If none walked out of the Field Listing, or if they came out in a bunch, then it is not a race to be punted. The one or two that did walk out are the punted horses.
Never overstudy to find bets.

The sighting of horses racing and the matching of that to Form, is the only way that true opinion can be used to make a living on punting.

Weight, Barrier Draw, Jockey or Trainer, Sectional Times, Barrier Trials, Gear, Steward Reports, Ratings, Systems, Track Conditions, ctdw and all their variations.
None of these should have a bearing on the Selection Proccess.

Has Tavette at Sandown on thursday, after an easy run followed by a lung strengthening front running run, got enough class held in her fitness, to match it with the back to back winner or the sleeping topweight.
Does she require much more time and Distance? Does any horse walk out of the Field Listing?
I do not know because I have not studied the race yet. But when I do I will deal with it swiftly and concisly. It will take five to ten minutes to accept or reject her and any other horse that does not walk out for me. If none walk or they come in a bunch the race is dismissed.

If one or two are punted, there will be a further four or five minutes of accesing the odds within twenty minuts of racetime, on how to secure return of over $7 to the dollar in Win, Parlay or Exotics. The Exotics where your strengths are greatest. In bets that it can be done, split a Bank Unit.

Over $7

That is the price you much achieve to make a living, using the soundess of Selection Methods.
What was the average price of winners last Saturday?........six point something? What will they be for wednesday thursday and next saturday?.....six point something?

It rises and falls from week to month to year but always swings back to an even keel. It does in each racing climate. The only way it changes is when drastic changes happen to the climate of racing, and that takes decades.
The game itself is throwing up a figure to attack.
I do not base the odds on this. I based them on years of recording my activities and the findings flash them up. They just coincide with what has been glaringly obvious to everyone on the punt.

Records

Everyone knows how important they are to keep. I have not kept betting records since April 2001. The only recordings I make are on horses.


Staking and Betting Bank

The talk of huge Betting Banks and the need for high turnover with slim Profit on Turnover are the cruelest words ever laid before a punter. They are junk food.
Sound Selection, sound Opinion and sound Staking are the correct food for punters. Loosing runs remain small, with the odd rare bad stretch that never extends to a point of near collapse.
A $2,000 bank of $100 units, $4,000 bank of $200. Plenty for a Starting Bank.
A Starting Bank is there to build quickly, to build into a Betting Bank. Then the Units are upped to a stage of what most refer to as each punters comfort zone.
A Bank is not meant to be built to a stage of unuseabuility. The profit must taken and the Bank stripped back down to where a comfort level rests.

Why is it that some punters think low and slow? Why? A long slow painful progression is not how you build a Bank, and low Odds are not to be accepted.

Progressive Staking

No Good. None of them. They will ruin. The only Progression that must take place is a rise of the Level Stake unit in a Betting Bank. The rise is at discrection, but only after a Bank has grown to keep in line with a warranted rise.

Each Way
No.

Place
Only in a parlay bet.

Disipline

Dogs, Trots, Poker, Casino's, Pokies, Two Up. All gambling has to stop. The only exceptions are small Tattslotto tickets and Bingo. While I dont play Tatts, I think it is just cruel to take it away from those that do. And some Bingo Halls are just the best way to wind down once in a blue moon. Laughing along with some old dears, it's a crack up.



Cutting down on needless things in punting is important to keep yourself fresh. Other hobbys and sports take a lot of compulsion away too. There are more than enough puntable races in a month that you do not have to chase anything.

Yep - No surprises there!

Crash, it's ironic that you criticise me for criticising TheEasyRun, yet you yourself are the first to stick the boot into anything that doesn't fit YOUR method of handicapping and punting.

A little even balance might go a long way.

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I'm listening INTENTLY?????

Your not having a mid-life crisis are you chrome :-)) ?

Righto EasyRun, now we get the gist except for your psychology [you either have it for this game or you haven't]. I can see where your coming from except for 2 areas. You seem to understand that winning at this game is to a large degree understanding horses themselves. If you do you would also know horses are pretty one dimensional as far as race running goes. I find it a bit strange that you leave out 'pace' as being an important consideration [?].

The other point is:
Quote:"Weight, Barrier Draw, Jockey or Trainer, Sectional Times, Barrier Trials, Gear, Steward Reports, Ratings, Systems, Track Conditions, ctdw and all their variations'. End quote.
None of these should have a bearing on the Selection Process.End quote.

I agree wuth you about ratings and systems only so far they are not on any handicapping or serious money making radar of my own.

So if a horse presents for you well [having satisfied your criteria], none of the above mean anything? A 4kg. claiming apprentice [or even a 3kg.] on a mid-pacer in barrier 3 in a field of 14 runners on a small track would be a good bet would it, as long as the horse 'walks for you"?

A runner with glue-on shoes or bar plates [not that you would know as you never check] wouldn't bother you or your well protected betting roll?

I'd be interested to hear your explanation about those couple [examples] of points, because race pace, a horse's natural running style and has it got a barrier and jockey to suit [?] are all very important to this punter anyway. I certainly take notice of the trainer, track condt. to suit the runner [and the type of track: small/large] to name a few interests. Weight and time aren't out of the ballpark of my attention either.

Still, there is more than one way to skin a cat and a sharp knife would be my first choice. I'm interested to hear a further explanation of yours. Thanks for the interesting posts so far.

We are about to hear something that we havn't read a hundred times ????

Well at least he got to his point. I don't know about all this 'walking' though.

If a horse don't go for a decent canter to get the air out of it's spleen and ready it's lungs for the race before heading for the starting gates, it's their for the scenery in my opinion.

A good trainer feeds his horses well and his runners will usually be race fit, so the trainer has to be important as small trainers scrimp on feed quality, vets, etc. etc. It's no surprise their horses mostly lose.

Negative gear [gear changes] has to be important. If I see front leg wraps first time or front leg wraps again [tendon problems] the runner won't see a cent of my money. Same applies to lugging bits, cross-over nose bands, tail chains or bar plates. In fact just about any gear changes [except for trainers who always use front wraps to keep other trainers guessing], keeps my money away.

At last some sanity to this whole thing.

Agreed syllabus!

__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 403,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 30/06/2024
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg

Would you mind explaining this a bit...I am not sure if you mean to "walk" and "list" in a literal sense or if this is a figure of speech?

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