Update

Bets 58; Won 45; Lost 13
At Flat Stakes: Bet 58; Won 13.89; ROI 23.9%

Good start to the week with both selections winning.

I don't think there's much value this evening in what I consider a harder group of games. I'll wait for the late prices to see if anything 'appears' and will post in the late afternoon (if there's any bets).

Amelia Island - Outright

Serena Williams to win: $3.00 @ Centrebet

Serena's likely matches in her half of the draw - barring any upsets - are Randriantefy, Pierce, Schnyder and Molik. There are of course a few variations in terms of her opposition - for example - Zvonereva may beat Molik or Farina Elia may beat Schydner. However these changes don't really impact upon the odds. Serena has solid records against all these players who, for the main part, are better suited to hardcourts.

The main reason for this selection is the imbalance in the two halves of the draw. Serena's lower half is far easier than the top half- an anomaly that can be blamed on the WTA's inefficient seeding methodology.

The real interest will come in the final. Barring upsets she will play Venus or Davenport (or possibly Myskina or Petrova who have great clay skills). Should there be an upset in the top half of the draw then Serena's price looks even better. In the top half of the draw, I rate Venus as favourite. Her record on clay last year was better than her record on hard. However she has a probable QFinal against Davenport and a SFinal against Myskina and her odds reflect this.

I think it's fair to say that Serena isn't playing her best tennis at the moment but I don't think she'll be really challenged until these last few games. If she does make the final, there will be an opportunity to 'arbitrage' the bet for a profit on either player. I'm sure she's still smarting from her loss last week so perhaps a bit of revenge is on the cards.

Trying to be objective - Serena isn't defending many points here so there's not a lot at stake in terms of her quest for No. 1. However I'm sure she's not here for fun and it's very unusual to see both Williams' in the same tournament outside of slams (and the Nasdaq - the unofficial 5th slam).

A few outsiders in the mix tonight but all have very good chances of winning. I'm surprised at some of the prices on offer but this is often the case as the tour moves from hard to clay.

These are all early lines but I'm not sure whether the markets will go up or down given some of the unusual prices.


Pierce v Daniilidou
Amelia Island - Round 2

Following on from my first round pick on Pierce who is the better clay court player who, as expected, crushed Bedanova during the first round. With a far superior clay court record and a past winner of this tournament, Pierce should also dispose of Daniilidou who is a mere 23/23 on clay. Daniilidou is also recuperating from a recent thumb injury and while it's not particularly serious in terms of fitness, it kept her out of the game for several weeks.

Pierce $1.42 @ 5Dimes.


Martinez V Jankovic
Amelia Island - Round 2

Absolutely stunned at these prices. I make Martinez a clear favourite. Before I extol her virtues, my only minor concern is her withdrawal from Nasdaq last week with a left heel injury. However, she won her first round match in steady if unspectacular fashion and should be better for the run. Nothing has appeared in the media, post-match interveiws or on her website mentioning any problem with her fitness. Ok - Martinez: 13th appearance at tournament and didn't lose before QF's in first 8 appearances. Has won tournament, has 2 runner-ups and made the third round in her two most recent appearances. Rates Amelia Island as one of her favourite events. She also has a 125/52 career record on clay and has been in sensational form this season. Her opponent Jankovic is a young up-and-comer with a 32/23 clay record. However most of her success has come on hardcourts. She made headlines recently by making the finals in Dubai but perhaps people are forgetting that was a hardcourt game - not clay - and that she only made the final through Williams retiring in the semi. Jankovic did have a good win over Douchevina in the first round, but Douchevina is well known for her inconsistent performances so I'm not reading too much into it. If Martinez's injury is still troubling her then perhaps Jankovic should be favourite but, as mentioned, there's nothing in post-match interviews, news stories etc that suggests this is the case.


Martinez $2.22 5Dimes
(you can get closer to 2.45 on Betfair)


Peschke v Frazier.
Amelia Island - Round 2

Just as surprised by these prices. Peschke rates clay as her favourite surface and has a 48/30 career record on the surface. She also had a straight set first round win over clay-court specialist Castano who's been in good form lately. Moreover she breezed through her 2 qualification games in straight sets. Frazier on the other hand, has a 23/25 clay record and is far more at home on hardcourt. Neither player is in their prime - Frazier's 32, Pescke 29 - but the latter certainly has the game to win. I rate Peschke a 60.3% chance and will gladly take the value.

Frazier can obviously win but the short odds are, in my opinion, plain crazy. This is the same player who was beaten in straight sets by Kutuzova (ranked 271) in Indian Wells a few short weeks ago . . . and hardcourts are Frazier's speciality!

Peschke $2.85 @ 5Dimes



Dulko v Likhovtseva
Amelia Island - Round 2

A relatively even match up - both players are competent on clay though I give the edge to Dulko. I think the odds probably reflect Likhovtseva's slightly better start to the hardcourt season but as I've said before, I'm not sure this form transfers to clay as readily as some think. At 29 years old, Likhovtseva hasn't played that may games on clay and her record of 63/52 hardly outshines 20-year-old Dulko's record of 35/21. Likhovtseva did manage to get past clay court specialist Pistolesi in the first round though the Israeli is on the comeback trail after injury/illness. Similarly, Dulko beat another competent clay courter in Srebrotnik in straight sets. I rate her a 55.2% chance of winning.

Dulko $2.00 @ 5Dimes



Garrigues v Farina Elia
Amelia Island - Round 2

Another match I think will be close and while I give Farina Elia a very slight edge, Garrigues represents the value. Garrigues great win over Linetskya in the first round underlines her solid clay court abilities. Her career record stands at 76/43 and some her best results have come on the surface. Farina Elia comes into the clay swing in relatively good form and generally does well at this time of year. Her career record stands at 112/62 and although she has been troubled by a recurring right shoulder injury over the past few months, I'm not sure if this plays into the odds (though her last tournament was Dubai). This match should be close and Garrigues is more than capable of winning. She's the bookies outsider but there's no way she should be this price so early in the clay season.


Garrigues $2.57 @ 5Dimes
(might better prices later?)

Thanks Marco

I am very impressed by the research you put in and the time you take to keep us, the novice WTA punters informed.

Your record speaks for itself.

My punting account has benifted and I am sure I speak on behalf of others.

Good luck tonite

Karla

UpdateBets 63; Won 47; Lost 16
At Flat Stakes: Bet 63; Won 13.16; ROI 20.8%


A rather ordinary night going 2-3. I most definitely got Martinez wrong - though she made no excuses about injuries in her interviews. Apparently she just played poorly.Dulko had a break in the third but went on to lose. To be fair, Likhovtseva deserved her win. Garrigues just didn't fire up and failed to convert enough of her many breakpoint opportunities. No excuses from me - it was just "one of those days".

A loss for the evening but no real damage done.

Our outright selection - Serena Williams - cruised passed Randriantefy and now comes up against Pierce who's playing solid tennis at the moment. Should be an interesting match and closer than the very short odds suggest. Razzano did us a big favour beating Molik as she was in Serena's half of the draw.

Back tonight.

PS: Thank you for the kind words Karla.

Some great figures there Marco, i although haven't been on your tips am also impressed by the form study and commitment you have to womens Tennis. I think it's fantastic to specialise in one sport and many people don't realise this and bet on many different sports, which doesn't allow them the time and study they need to make good steady profits such as yourself, well done. Just curious on how many betting agencies you go through to get the best price?

Petrova v Jankovic
Amelia Island - Round 3

Despite disposing of Martinez, I still feel Jankovic is over-rated at the moment. She'll find the going harder today against Petrova, the wily Russian who prefers hardcourts but is more than competent on clay. Petrova crushed specialist clay-courter Maleeva in the first round and has some decent results at this tournament, including a straight sets win over a fully-fit Serena Williams last year. She's also had a good start to the season and should be full of confidence. Both players have similar records on the surface though Petrova has generally beat a better class of player (ie higher rated). Should be close and Jankovic is definitely an improver but I rate Petrova a 58.2% chance of winning.

Petrova $1.87 @ 5Dimes


Sugiyama v Razzano
Amelia Island - Round 3

Sugiyama finally seems to be finding some form after an ordinary start to the season. She's had a couple of good wins over clay-court specialists Strycova and Sanchez-Lorenzo and although appearing to still lack a little confidence, her game is definitely on the up. It must be said that clay isn't her best surface though she's more than capable of holding her own and had a good clay swing last year.What I do like about Sugiyama is her Lleyton-Hewitt-like quality where she always gives 100% until the last point. Her opponent Razzano impressed us all by breezing passed Molik without any major problems though I feel this was a 'one off' performance. Molik's unforced error count certainly helped. Razzano's competent on clay but her record is rather mixed with quite a few of her wins coming on the Challenger circuit. Like Sugiyama, she had a terrible start to the season and will be out to build on the momentum from her Molik win.

Sugiyama $1.57 @ 5Dimes


Zvonereva v Likhovtseva
Amelia Island - Round 3

Likhovtseva did just enough to get passed Dulko yesterday but this will be alot harder. Zvonereva is having a great year and boasts a 58/17 clay record with quite a few of her wins coming over top rated players. She had a hard fought win over the tenacious Peng but I'll put the score down to a bit of rustiness first up on clay. Likhovtseva is another player I think is over-rated. Her clay record stands at 64/52 and her results suggest she prefers it a bit faster than the conditions on offer at Amelia Island. She'll also have a lot more problems with Zvonereva's serve compared to the weak efforts Dulko was dishing up yesterday.

Zvonereva $1.56 @ Pinnacle


NB: I'm rather keen on Farina Elia @ $2.50 versus Patty Schnyder but am a bit shy posting outsiders after yesterday. Schydner's a bit of a head case at times and you never know which 'personality' is going to turn up. I have them rated 52-48 to Schydner so, in my opinion, there's value on Farina Elia but I'll be a tad cautious this early in the clay swing.


PS: Mr Ed, thanks for the kind words - always nice after an ordinary day at the office. I have accounts at 16 bookies but 95% of my bets are placed at Betfair, 5Dimes and Pinnacle (in that order). Most online bookies are a joke when it comes to tennis - both ATP and WTA - but you can do good business with these 3 alone. The key is being in the market when they post their
opening lines. They generally do so at the same time each day - relative to the tournament timezone - so it's a fairly easy process.

Even though Betfair prices are generally superior, I don't post them because the amount available for betting is often insubstantial and can change quickly.

Update

UpdateBets 64; Won 48; Lost 16
At Flat Stakes: Bet 64; Won 13.73; ROI 21.4%

The bad news is rain played havoc with the tournament today - most of our games will be played tonight. The good news is my first selection to play, Zvonereva, won in straight sets. She was also available up to $1.67 prior to the start (though my 1.57 has been recorded). The 'mixed' news is Sugiyama is a set down but leading the second set tiebreak 3-0. Though not particularly important, Sugiyama has a 60/50 career tiebreak record while Razzano has a 32/22 record. Here's hoping.

Update

Bets 66; Won 49; Lost 17
At Flat Stakes: Bet 66; Won 13.60; ROI 20.6%

Petrova won last night but Sugiyama let us down. A disappointing loss as she lead 5-2 in the third set and held match point before losing 7-5. However Razzano - who deserves credit for beating Sugiyama - did us a favour by beating Zvonareva.

No value in the semi's tonight so I'll wait to see how the final shapes up. I'm guessing Davenport v Williams but that's not exactly rocket science.

Serena Williams just retired after losing second set so our outright bet loses.

Update

Bets 67; Won 49; Lost 18
At Flat Stakes: Bet 67; Won 12.60; ROI 18.8%

May post a pick on Razzano / Elia tonight.

Family Circle Cup - Charlston
Green Clay

Rather weak field at Charlston this week. Quite a few upsets against the seeds in qualification so expect some variable results again. The clay swing will start to settle down soon as more games are played and current form becomes more evident.

Not much time today so abbreviated write-ups.

Randriantefy v Jidkova
Charlston - Round 1

Randriantefy is a better all-round player and superior on clay. Nice warm up games last week whereas Jidkova was easily beaten by hardcourter Frazier. Randriantefy solid season thus far while Jidkova's been very ordinary

Randriantefy $1.50 @ 5Dimes


Peer v Vaidisova
Charlston - Round 1

While Peer is largely unproven on clay, she does have a 20/7 career record although many of those wins were on the Challenger circuit. Her opponent has only played 6 games on clay at any level and is first-up this season on the surface. Peer has the advantage of 'warming up' on both qualies this week (2 wins) and at Amelia Island where she put in a credible performance (1 win, 1 loss).

Peer $2.30 @ 5Dimes


Likhovtseva v Koukalova
Charlston - Round 1

Likhovtseva had solid performance on green clay last week while Koukalova is first-up. Koukalova'scompetent on the dirt and this could be a close match but Likhovtseva is the better player who has the benefit of 3 good 'warm-up' matches at Amelia Island.

Likhovtseva $1.33 @ 5Dimes

NB: Dementieva is one of the favourites for this tournament but she withdrew form Amelia Island last week with a knee injury so might be best to watch a few games first. Zuluaga also withdrew from Amelia Island with an 'illness' so not best preparation for such short odds. Shaughnessy hurt her back at Amelia Island.