That would be sound thinking if they were robots and ran according to an input pad where you typed in todays run hash 123, but unfortunately it is a race between animals.

Sportz,
I am expecting Perfectly Ready to go well in the Guineas. Average barrier, good and regular jockey. Any comment. Like his last race when lost to Gonski as he was blocked for a run at 200m and zoom up once clear.

Tenacious - yep that's exactly right, they are flesh and blood. That's why we have odds. However those animals have ability, and some have none at all (I own one like that), and that ability can be quantified.

Cant agree with much of what has been said on this thread.Cant agree that the diva is a certainty either,as time eternal has proven over and over there are no certainties in racing.Freedman has said all along that he has set her specifically for the Cox and does NOT want to run her in the Cup.As a 7yo mare IMO she would be hard pressed to win it anyway.Going up 1200mtrs in such a short space of time would also be against her,especially if she has to do it tough in the Cox,and dont forget she has got 58kgs.IMO she will not run,at least if the owner does listen to the trainer!!Dont know what path Mike Moroney is going to take with Xcellent,but if it runs in the Cox it will go very close,it has an enormous turn of foot,which only top notch horses have.I know it failed it its only run in Aus,but the track conditions did not suit.Anyone who has seen its 2 wins since resuming would have be blind not to give it a top chance.IMO it is the only possible danger to the Diva,and IMO it will beat her.Foo is past it now,Lad of wont blow wind up their butts when the chips are down,and as for all the ranting and raving about the HK imports,can you name me one from there that has cut the mustard in AUS???

As for the Caulfield Cup,It is a great race for 4yo horses,so I am looking at Dizelle,Hollow Bullet,Xcellent,Stella Grande.

Melbourne Cup is a good race for 4,5 and 6yo.

Cant narrow them right down until final fields and lots of form study of course,but have got some fairly huge doubles going already from a while ago.Hopefully some will make it to the field,let alone win!!!

Hey hows it going guys, im new to this thread

Duritz i was wonderin what rating does Eye Popper have at the moment, i see he ran a good 4th when the diva ran in 7th, somewhere in hong kong i think it was

thanks

I exhausted my opinion on this thread but this is about the last thing I will say

Cox Plate: Lad of the Manor (we will see on the day who is blowing wind up whose ass won't we), Greys Inn & Mummify I amnot saying that Makybe Diva can't win nor do I say that Xcellent won't win either but they have one hell of a job ahead of them.

Caulfield Cup: This is a race that if you run it 10 times you might end up with 10 different winners the runners look so closely bunched it is hard to seperate them. I like Vouvray, Sir Dex, Portland Singa & maybe Railings although I do feel that Railings is a better shot in the Melbourne Cup.

Melbourne Cup: Who knows right now Makybe Diva if she goes here is an obvious chance but will be doing it without my money this year 58kgs and the step up in distance have to put some doubt there. Railings is the one for me he has stayer written all over him by Zabeel out of a Palace Music mare I can see no reason why he can't run the 2 miles but he does also seem to have a bit of a turn of foot. I have not picked anything else really as I don't feel I have seen any good 2 milers outside of the 2 I mentioned Vouvray, Sir Dex and Portland Singa maybe chances but I wouldn't be taking anything short about them running 2 miles. Plastered has to be a big hope but if I was on here to tip the favs to everyone then it would become awful boring so I just try and make a case why something that is value has a chance or can win I will let you work the rest out.

The Caufield cup is looking like this to me:

My current trifecta is(in order): Mr Celebrity, El Segundo and Sir Dex

Mr Celebrity: Very talented horse winning the george Main & fav 4 the epsom. He is only going to get better over more ground which is scary as he is one of the top milers going round

El Segundo: great form around Makybe Diva then won easily beating a good field, form has since been proven with show barry winning well in the cran cup.

Sir Dex: Underated horse which keeps running great races, due for a win soon and i think the cup is it

Mr C is huge value now at $26. Anyone know if he is being targetted at the caufield cup?????
I would like to know if he is going to start or not b4 i jump at him.

Everything I have heard recently basically said that El Segundo will not be racing in the Caulfield Cup not sure whether that had to do with order of entry or whether they just didn't want to take him to that race this year. If he goes to the Cup then he is a chance ofcourse. Mr. Celebrity is supposed to be being aimed at the Cox Plate so I would seriously doubt if that is the case it will be running in the Caulfield Cup and besides Waterhouse doesn't exactly have a stellar record in melbourne who knows though could be about to change I for one certainly would never wish any luck on the woman the best thing about Melbourne Racing is that she sucks there when she is there, Not to mention her horses are usually drastically overrated and blow the prices of everything else out.


Just to set the record straight Absolute Truth I amt bagging your selections I can't be bothered doing that anymore however I am just saying what I have heard and if true those 2 horses would be less than 50% chances of even being in the race. As far as the Waterhouse thing goes sorry if your a fan I cannot stand her have not and will not back anything she ever trains probably the reason I don't bet to much in sydney I guess.

I should add that Sir Dex will definitely be in the Caulfield Cup atleast if your looking at fixed odds and give him a chance you won't be throwing your money away on something that will not even be there on the day.

Re the question about HK horse's cutting the mustard - in the last 5 years virtually none have come across. One that does spring to mind though is Cape of Good Hope...... goes OK, beat a little horse called Spark of Life (dual Manikato winner) amongst others.

In the Caulfield Cup, if Caulfield track is dry and Confectioner gets a run and a reasonable barrier draw (very important) he is a certainty. Forget the rest, he just wins. Don't waste your dough on others. If you don't believe me, go back and watch the replay of his run behind the Diva the other day. Watch it again. Also, know that in that race he rated 120. Last year, winning the Caul Cup, Elvis rated 119. Year before, Mummify, 118. Confectioner has 52 or so in the Caulfield. Just put your maximum bet on if he's in and the track is dry etc and thank me later.

Wanger97 re Eye Popper, that race was in Japan unfortunately, Expert form don't have ratings on the land of the rising sun.

Get on pLastered almost a good thing for the CC. Saver on sir dex.