Well there you go

Arctic Park wrecked the fun but the win of Jewel Point made up for it. I must start backing those long shots

That's it for the time being. There's something else in the workshop but it's a little way away.

Prices from the B.A.T. Gold Play was a scratching.


====================
Lay 11.00 or less
----------
BLMT02-05 Hide The Loot 3.45 ... WON -2.45
BLMT05-06 Old Guru 9.80 ... LOST +1.00
BLMT07-01 Arctic Park 10.00 ... WON -9.00
BLMT07-08 River Mist 9.40 ... LOST +1.00
CHEL03-07 Tic Toc Tac 9.20 ... LOST +1.00
GCST06-04 Authoress 8.20 ... LOST +1.00
GCST06-08 Wheel The Lead 11.00 ... LOST +1.00
MORN06-08 Juivanka 9.00 ... LOST +1.00
MORN07-06 Chu Chu Mama 4.60 ... LOST +1.00
RAND03-07 Grizz 9.20 ... LOST +1.00
SANH06-02 Chiack 8.20 ... LOST +1.00
SANH08-12 Corporal Nediym* 8.00 ... LOST +1.00

Results April 21st - June 30th
----------
Number of Selections: 157.00
Observed Successes: 139.00
Observed Strike Rate: 88.54%
Expected Successes: 127.01
Expected Strike Rate: 80.90%
Advantage: 9.44%
Success due to luck: 0.27%
Profit: +27.15 units
Commission @ 5%: -6.95 units
Net Profit: +20.20 units
Net ROI: +12.86%
====================

====================
Back 11.50 or greater
----------
BLMT02-03 Mythalo 14.00 ... LOST -1.00
BLMT06-06 Metal Power 25.00 ... LOST -1.00
BLMT06-07 Reactive Thunder 12.00 ... LOST -1.00
CHEL05-01 El Seigneur 13.50 ... LOST -1.00
CHEL05-07 Miss Presley 22.00 ... LOST -1.00
CHEL07-10 Silent Action 12.00 ... LOST -1.00
GCST09-09 Crackaway 15.00 ... LOST -1.00
HAWK09-12 Jewel Point 32.00 ... WON +31.00
MORN06-06 Robbery Under Arms 12.50 ... LOST -1.00
MORN08-05 Senor De Lago 21.00 ... LOST -1.00
MORN09-07 Madison Trail 18.50 ... LOST -1.00
RAND02-02 Avoid Heathrow 27.00 ... LOST -1.00
RAND05-07 Rose Of Ghataas 20.00 ... LOST -1.00
SANH08-04 Snappy Tom 15.00 ... LOST -1.00
SCST02-06 Court Adjourned 16.50 ... LOST -1.00

Results April 21st - June 30th
----------
Number of Selections: 188.00
Observed Successes: 15.00
Observed Strike Rate: 7.98%
Expected Successes: 9.60
Expected Strike Rate: 5.11%
Advantage: 56.26%
Success due to luck: 14.61%
Profit: +113.00 units
Commission @ 5%: -15.05 units
Net Profit: +97.95 units
Net ROI: +52.10%
====================


* I gave Corporal Nediym a promotion when I posted the selections.

__________________
Pixie

"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash

Well done Angry Pixie, it's all good hey

Interesting to note the profit and POT is better by backing the longer horses than laying the shorter ones.

Combine them both and you have a pretty good consistent return.

__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
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Thanks Chrome. It's done pretty well for such a simple system. The profit and advantage figures are merging together a bit but I'll be happy if I can keep the lay side around the 10% mark. There'll be better prices now it's not public.

Saturday was one of the best day's on the lay this year. Finished 30.9 units up

__________________
Pixie

"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash

Let's blow the cobwebs off and see if this still works. Lay if $11 or less at the jump, otherwise back them. Other venues to follow.

E_FM02-13 Beartracker
E_FM03-03 Rhymenoreason
E_FM04-04 Reincarnation
FLEM06-02 Magnus
FLEM09-06 Orange County
FLEM09-09 Count To Zero
NCLE01-04 Lady's Counsel
NCLE07-03 Alotta Lute
NCLE08-02 Carnegie Prince
NCLE09-04 Centover
NCLE09-10 Oriental Belle
RHIL09-05 Spy Zam

__________________
Pixie

"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash

BR_H03-04 Delta Devil
BR_H04-06 Dandy Jester
EHPE06-06 Ivortov
EHPE08-04 Kanejake
GCST05-03 Gypsy Mist
GCST05-05 Tread Lightly
GCST06-06 Legally Hot
GCST06-08 Kalinga Ivor
MORP08-07 Catwalk Minnie
TWBA03-05 Aussie Sunset
TWBA05-11 Laertes
TWBA07-09 But Say

__________________
Pixie

"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash

Doing well so far, Pixie (touch wood).

Well that still works I guess. The "Lay 11.00 or less" group could have been better but only finished -2.55* units down. The "Back 11.50 or greater" group did well and ended +$19.97* units up. Overall a +17.42* unit profit for the day. Not too bad for an old system. I'll have another go some other day.

Prices from B.A.T.

====================
Lay 11.00 or less
----------
E_FM02-13 Beartracker 7.40 ... LOST +0.95
E_FM03-03 Rhymenoreason 5.50 ... LOST +0.95
E_FM04-04 Reincarnation 8.00 ... LOST +0.95
EHPE06-06 Ivortov 8.80 ... LOST +0.95
EHPE08-04 Kanejake 8.00 ... LOST +0.95
FLEM09-06 Orange County 9.20 ... WON -8.20
GCST05-05 Tread Lightly 10.50 ... LOST +0.95
GCST06-06 Legally Hot 11.00 ... LOST +0.95
NCLE01-04 Lady's Counsel 5.00 ... LOST +0.95
NCLE07-03 Alotta Lute 6.20 ... LOST +0.95
NCLE08-02 Carnegie Prince 5.80 ... WON -4.80
NCLE09-04 Centover 9.20 ... LOST +0.95
NCLE09-10 Oriental Belle 9.00 ... LOST +0.95
====================
====================
Back 11.50 or greater
----------
BR_H03-04 Delta Devil 15.00 ... WON +13.3
BR_H04-06 Dandy Jester 23.00 ... LOST -1.00
FLEM06-02 Magnus 16.00 ... LOST -1.00
FLEM09-09 Count To Zero 13.00 ... LOST -1.00
GCST05-03 Gypsy Mist 11.50 ... LOST -1.00
GCST06-08 Kalinga Ivor 42.00 ... LOST -1.00
MORP08-07 Catwalk Minnie 75.00 ... LOST -1.00
RHIL09-05 Spy Zam 21.00 ... LOST -1.00
TWBA03-05 Aussie Sunset 28.00 ... LOST -1.00
TWBA05-11 Laertes 34.00 ... LOST -1.00
TWBA07-09 But Say 17.50 ... WON +15.67
====================


* 5% Betfair commission has been deducted from all wins

__________________
Pixie

"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash

Let's push out luck a little more. Other venues to follow.

FLEM02-01 Merlot Now
FLEM02-07 Lancettier
FLEM07-06 Cargo Cult
GEEL01-02 Distraction
GEEL08-06 Green Gem
K_GR05-05 Catchadane
K_GR10-07 I r i s h Myth
RHIL01-07 Lancaster Park
RHIL04-05 Exinite
RHIL05-03 Canary Islands
TAR_03-02 Sequenjar

__________________
Pixie

"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash

CHEL03-05 Gold Lens
CHEL03-09 Shanetty
CHEL04-04 Le Niska
DOOM01-07 I'm A Leader
DOOM01-08 Monashee Knight
DOOM02-07 Oh Ruby
DOOM03-04 Digging Deep
DOOM04-04 Sir Coup
DOOM05-05 Fine Cheval
DOOM08-11 Spirito Volante
GCST05-08 Jakelli
GCST06-06 Scent Of Gold
GCST07-03 Patties Mate
GCST08-01 Teletrader
GCST09-04 Norse Code

__________________
Pixie

"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash

TWBA01-09 Mother Craft
TWBA03-03 Backinaflash
TWBA04-03 Casaco

That's it for today!

__________________
Pixie

"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash