Good move Jaffa, I like the simplicity. I use previous prize money raced for as a guide, but like the weight idea.

Hard to comment on your selections Partypooper as The West to me is ... the Wild West. Not for the faint hearted !!

Cheers.

Sandgroper, thanks again for your very constructive comments, and yes I the point perfectly about midweek form. I will now look at that very closely, thanks again.

El Gordo. I obviously used the word "gut" very loosly, what I meant was that, AFTER I have rated a selection on top using all of the known criteria, and IF I believe that some value (V the chance that I give it) will be available it becomes an investment only after it has passed the final hurdle, that is if I really believe it CAN win, so really I am saying MY JUDGEMENT rather than gut.
Also I AM making a profit over an extended period, and have posted my selections here IN ADVANCE for the last 5 weeks. I appreciate your feedback though and if there is any snippet that you are prepared to post that may help it would be greatly appreciated.

CRASH, I happen to know that you could teach me a hell of a lot about the game. I concentrated on WA racing because I believe that it shows consistency, (don't want to get in an argument about that though) also I pick up snippets here and there I know several strappers, and leased a couple of paddocks to a trainer. As you can see by the last 5 weeks results I can turn a profit, although I would be the first to say that one "Swallow" does not make a "Spring", but I've steadily improved over the last 12 months especially. Your comments about the sprints are well founded and I'm looking into that closely, though a quick scan showed that POT would not have been improved over the last 12 months, but that could easily be co-incidence.

Keep it coming guys, I'm learning all the time. PP

Partypooper,

Thanks for the compliment, but my advice anywhere on this forum is only tried and true passed on secondhand wisdom from punting Sages and keep in mind that racing to me has never been more than a serious hobby.

Might start having a look at Perth racing for interest and see how I go. I am sure there are only two tracks there so that has to be a handicapping advantage and I have also heard that one of them [ can't remember which one ] is probably the least biased track in Australia. Is that true ?

Cheers.


[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2004-01-07 06:09 ]

Partypooper, you weren't far off with your rating of Twice. The problem for her was holding a career Peak out of the start before.
For those who factor time into their equations, the race before (won by Head West)
went over a second faster than the standard for that class, thereby pushing the ratings higher. If a horse can hold when it reaches it's peak, it means that horse has a base from which to kick to the next level, usually in it's next preperation.
If however you believe that the horse is doubtful to progress much beyond that class then the only place for her rating to go is down. This often happens at the next start and in fact also happened to Head West who couldn't hold his career peak finishing 8th in a class6 on new years day. Twice was definately a good risk, up in weight, distance and off a career peak, while the other main chance So Long Syd was on the rise. Also I doubt that the slow pace of the race helped Twice much. She preferrs a solid tempo.
The west IS a good place to concentrate your efforts on though. The tracks generally have less bias than the eastern states.
Cheers
Hope this helps

Just a useful note.

Generally speaking, when it comes to 'improvement' in a 'good' average horse over it's career, 5 lengths is about tops while 7 lengths [1 sec.] would be considered extraordinary.

Distance 1200m on a good track.

cheers.

Crash, yes only Ascot (main City track) and Belmont but 2 very different tracks. There is heaps of Country tracks of course.

I think the consistency here is partly due to the lack of bias as you say, but I fear that could start a big argument.

PICKLE, thanks for that, and yes thats probably one of my weak points time in general, and also determining when an animal has peaked and when it's had enough, i.e. I usually know the answer through my pocket.

I think both perth tracks favour frontrunners particularly ascot. But as stats suggest that is where most of the winners come from anyway.

cheers
umrum

only one investment this week.
PR6-3 Kame's Hope

all constructive comments welcome

I'll be backing

Main Stage
Moon Talk and
Tribula if they represent any value.
I feel Moon Talk will open to short. All up place may be the go.

Also National Silk is a good each way bet at $17 or similar

[ This Message was edited by: umrum on 2004-01-09 15:28 ]

WoW Umrum glad I twigged that one , cancell my previous post,..... my one and only investment will be PR5-2 Kame's Hope to beat Main Stage, otherwise if it is scratched then NO BET AT ALL FOR THE DAY!

Just goes to show the difference of opinion eh? well, let em run???

NB. Tribula was only a moscito's appendix away from being an investment, but there you go!! hee hee!