With the barrier draw now completed and current betting markets initialized it is time to look for value for the true "class" horse(s) in this field.
After my initial appraisal of runners giving consideration to their barrier draws, I believe there are now only 4 or 5 true "class" horses running which have a realistic chance.
In the next few days I will be eliminating some runners to eventually arrive at what I think are the true winning chances, however, I will include some others in the hope of getting the first four.
Anyone have their own thoughts?
Looking forward to your opinions.
Remember!....this is the iconic "class" race of the year....pretenders usually do not win!

Cheers.

Class horses in the Cox Plate are:
Makybe Diva....champion mare
Lad Of the Manor....impeccable record at the Valley
Xcellent...potential superstar...BUT...as I continue my form analysis, I am having misgivings about his ability to handle the MV circuit, particularly from his barrier. His wins in NZ appeared to be on wider tracks, not particularly similar to M Valley or Randwick and Flemington but I am just taking a cautious look at his prospects on this "specialists" track.
I will be immersed in more form study in an effort to work through these puzzles before I make my final judgments.
In the end "class" will differentiate the true chances from the pretenders.
Cheers.

Xanadu,

Note Xcellent's last two wins were at Hastings which is a tight track of only 1700m. Certainly not Flemington or Randwick:

Hastings Racecourse

Located in Hastings. Runners drawn wide at 800m, 1000m and 1600m are disadvantaged unless they are particularly good starters. Other starting points suit most runners in all conditions.

timothy- good point but are you seriously trying to tell me that the two tracks have any other similiarities other than what you highlighted?
Moonee Valley with it's special surface and camber does not suit all horses.
I'm sorry mate but to compare the two is like comparing cheese to chalk.
Hey, I like Xcellent, I believe he may be the next champion in waiting, ready to assume the crown but I have reservations regarding his first run at this track under the immense pressure which this race generates.

Cheers.

Easy on Xanadu, I did not at all say it was like MV. My point was that it is not a "big, wide track similar to Flemington or Randwick" which is what you said.

The circumference is almost indentical to the Valley and it won each race in large fields coming from a long way back but that is all. We all know the Valley is unique with its shape, surface etc.

Again mate, you make a good point and it will only be determined on Saturday when the "class" horses "strut" their stuff.
Whatever I back, I'll certainly "save" on Xcellent as I have backed him in all of his recents starts so he is a favourite of mine.
What about you mate, do you think that he can measure up at his first attempt on this "specialists" circuit?

Cheers.

OK Xanadu, as you asked IMO the horses that can win:

Makybe Diva
Lad of the Manor
Super Kid
Greys Inn
Xcellent
God's Own (still deciding)

Yeah, God's Own certainly won in incredible style but can he step up in the pressure cooker atmosphere of the Cox Plate.....there is nowhere to hide for those runners which are a bit immature or just feeling the pinch with the incredible sectionals required to even stay in touch with these classy runners.
It is a true test of will and constitution and many will fall by the wayside...that is why I believe that Fields Of Omagh may handle the pressure as he has "done it all before." Definitely put him in your exotics.

Cheers.

Agree with that and is why I have a big ? beside God's Own.

My placegetter possibilities are a lot wider and 3yo's can run into third with their light weights e.g. Viscount in the mix with the prize fighters of Sunline and Northerly a few years ago. Suspect winning is a different story.
Fields could do it but taking the risk - he is 8 now ad although lightly raced and going very well I'm risking him.
To me Super Kid is at very good odds - his runs here have been very good. Gee the Valley atmosphere won't worry him - Honkers prepares you for that. Same with Greys Inn just to a slightly lesser extent on all above fronts.

Yeah, good points, although in my case I have a perceived bias against the international "raiders" because usually they cannot handle the "hit and run" preparation when incredible pressure is applied in the big races by our local "champs."
The Godolphins packed up and left this week because the demands were just too much so the "raiders" have to overcome this barrier(N.B. not unlike our well performed runners in honkers and Singapore in recent years), I suppose that if they are good enough they can overcome anything put in front of them.
However, when in doubt, stick with ...."CLASS"....and that definitely means Makybe Diva and some other locals.

Cheers.