Last lot of selections for the time being. Hope you haven't lost too much

I'll do the normal results summary tomorrow, and early next week I'll crunch some numbers to see who really won - the Pixie or the Donkey.

Date-Time Course - Name
20070330-0030 Ascot - Openditch
20070330-0055 Lingfield - Lucayos
20070330-0130 Lingfield - Sgt Schultz

__________________
Pixie

"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash

Nice!......again.

Thanks Merri. It looks better than it is though. More on this to come.

__________________
Pixie

"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash

Finished the trial on a winning note

I think we actually did pretty well considering that the Daily Donkey have posted a +10,000 result for March. Only the fifth time ever.

I'm in the process of creating a couple of spreadsheets that throw a very different perspective of the results below. Stay tuned, you may get a shock

Date-Time Course - Name
20070330-0030 Ascot - Openditch ... LOST +1.00
20070330-0055 Lingfield - Lucayos ... LOST +1.00
20070330-0130 Lingfield - Sgt Schultz ... LOST +1.00

===
RESULTS: March 6th - March 30th*

Pixie:
===
Number of Selections: 136
Successful Selections: 117
Strike Rate: 86.02%
Profit: +36.22 units
Commission @ 5%: -5.85 units
Net Profit: +30.37 units
Net POT: 22.33%

Daily Donkey:**
===
Number of Selections: 766
Successful Selections: 587
Strike Rate: 76.63%
Profit: +81.21 units
Commission @ 5%: -29.35 units
Net Profit: +51.86 units
Net POT: 6.77%

* Excludes Saturday 24th March

**Upon checking my recorded results with those recorded by the Daily Donkey, I found that I was giving them a bit more credit than they were giving themselves. I'd made a couple of small errors in my calculations (I'll blame staying up so late), so these are the corrected figures.

__________________
Pixie

"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash

Well done AP.

Here's a quick and dirty lay system that works on Aussie racing.

Metro races only
Unitab rating less than 75
Lay up to double the prepost price only.

There's been three winners in three months for a profit of around 100+ units

__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 409,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 31/10/2024
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg

Nice one. I'll check it out.

Here's a back system you could have a look at. Instead of laying the Daily Donkey selections, back them. When you adjust for obtainable SP you'll be on a small but steady winner.

__________________
Pixie

"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash

C.P.,

Am I reading your post correctly? Had a quick look at yesterday's five metro tracks. There were no horses that qualified (75 or less)! There were two at 76, one at 77.

At that rate there are not going to be too many lays!

Angry, gotta admit I've never tried things this way round, though I have on several occasions found myself being able to cover a field @95% or there abouts using fixed odds, the feelings great, sheet it's like buying money, now i know why all those bookies have that sick smile on their face. Just to be able to laugh when the fav is left in the stalls then the 2nd fav is boxed in, then the 3rd fav gets gallopped on etc etc dosen't matter, at least 5% for sweet F/A makes you wonder how come it's legal??

n'way, 6% or so still seems pretty slim with an element of risk???? NO RISK yes ok, but 6% with a risk???? r u happy with that??

There's a first time for everything.


You mean the Daily Donkey's 6.77% POT. I'd have to agree with you. These figures are SP too. You can't lay all the Daily Donkey selections and make money.

The 22.33% we managed (at SP also) is another matter. You'd probably manage a 6-10% POT at Betfair prices if you got your timing right, or if you were aggressive with your pricing and were prepared to leave a few that were too long.

Is 6% too slim? After expenses and at Betfair prices no I don't think so. My main business is laying Oz races where after expenses I'm doing around 7.1% at level stakes, with a 93.2% SR and and a 0.48% chance of success due to luck. I'll place about 10 lays on a race day and turn over my whole bank a little over once in doing so. There are good days and bad naturally, but these are very robust figures so I just churn away and marvel at the wonders of compound interest

__________________
Pixie

"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash

Well, good on ya, I just can't get my head around the figures involved, some blockage or just dumb?? when we're away my wife has to drive as I just can't "get" driving on the right, she manages no problem.
Anyway, keep it up!