It seems to me that there is great merit in Testarossa's Place System.
http://www.propun.com.au/forums/vie...ic=1201&forum=7

Have you, Testarossa, or anyone else tried it with the greyhounds? It is not all that difficult to pick a place; and I think that the average div. would be at least $1.30. I know that the divs. fluctuate wildly (on the Tote); but they do fluctuate in your favour often too.

Thoughts?

In the thread you are refering to the Stats. made it look great. However, remember it was based on a 80% strike rate.

The strike rate that the system was based on was forgotten as the thread progressed into the maths and method.
The question remains, was it true? Seems a bit fanciful to expect regular 80% selection success, even though it was only for the place.
Anyone who can select 8 out of 10 doesn't need such a fanciful method to place bets surely?
Why not back each selection e/w as approx. 1/3rd of them should win and that is a great strike rate of winners as cream on the top?

[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2003-08-21 07:52 ]

[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2003-08-21 07:56 ]

Anyone who can't get 8 out of 10 placings better start contemplating whether they are serious about winning!!! remember the average div was $1.30 meaning the majority were favourites if not second favourites.

Considering favourites place around 60% - 70% of the time its not to difficult to have a 80%SR considering you can choose the races to play the favourites in.



Once again considering that the selections are favourites or close to the divs would range anywhere from around $1.50 - $3.00 for the win. Taking $3.00 as the winner for every race and a strike rate of 33% you would get $99 back from $100.

Strike rates mean nothing compared to POT.

Sorry old Boy,

I was just expressing my ignorance of betting for the place!
Is the system [parley approach] still working?

Cheers.

Jesus thats the first time anyone's called me old boy before considering i'm 23. I thought i was old...., it's a bit scary really.

Yeah i wasn't keen about place betting for a while either it didn't seem very exciting, but if it makes money..........

It still going well thanks Crash, been a bit slow at the moment though, but still well ahead.

[ This Message was edited by: testarossa on 2003-08-22 14:34 ]

A mere pup Testa !!


:grin:

Thanks for the responses. Glad to hear that you are still making a bob or two from the system Testarossa (actually it dawns on me now that the thread should have been on the 'systems' area --- oh, well, I guess we all read all the three forum areas).

However no one has answered the 'dogs' part of the post. With only eight starters it seems to me that you are already ahead! My experiments in this area have been encouraging anyway. Anyone else tried them for the place?

Another question --- does anyone know the favourites place strike rate for the dogs? About 61% is usually quoted for the horses. What is it for the greyhounds?

I would be interested in contributors opinions as to the merits of using a 'loss chasing type' staking plan when operating a selection system with a such a high SR (80%).

Strike rate for favorites in Horse Racing is about 33%.

As a great Dogs fan [once apon a time ago], I think they are a largely overlooked area of profit potential. Although without the glamour and high profile of the Horses, for
fast and furious action, nothing beats them [definately a young mans game].

I still have the odd night on them at the pub and find a 1x4 e/w on the second favorite keeps me out of trouble and often is quite rewarding. Some research in place betting for profit on the dogs, might yeild somthing very worthwhile bet on Divi+ or Sportsbet [not TAB], if you can take the pace!

I generally avoid the dogs as I haven't spent a lot of time studying them - one big issue is that the TAB pools are ususally quite small which really limits how much you can bet. I did collect some price stats for a while and it is not unusual to see the price on one runner change from say $4.00 just before jump to only pay $2.00 after the race - probably the result of someone putting $500 on their dog when the pool is only a few thousand dollars. Makes finding value kind of tricky when some idiot does that.

Crash - I think IAS only offers Bettadiv on dogs (ie. NSW pricing) which means you are still exposed to this type of issue. Don't know what the bookie markets are like on the dogs?

DKEL - Using a loss chasing staking plan on $1.30 runners can send you broke real fast (as can any loss-chasing plan). You basically have to incresase your bet fourfold after each loss. So if first bet is $50 your progression is $50, $200, $800, $3200, $12800! Even with an 80% strike rate a run of 4 or 5 losses is quite possible.

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