Just as a general question and not having a dig at anyone. If you are doing ratings with any degree of certainty can anyone explain a system that would not have either Fastnet Rock in the Oakleigh Plate or Winning Belle in the Canterbury Cup at least in their top 2.


I realise so very well that racing is a game of opposing opinions but to me these two "neddies" I would have thought would be right at the top of anybody's ratings, no matter what method you use.

Of course I could be setting myself up for a big slice of humble pie but I just don't understand it.

Good Punting

CAULFIELD
1 FASTNET ROCK (74.0) $3.40
2 TAIKUN (73.0) $4.30
3 LILANDO (71.5) $6.00
7 FOREPLAY (68.5) $12.20
6 STRIKELINE (68.0) $14.30
----------------------------
8 ALIZES (67.0) $19.00

CANTERBURY
3 WINNING BELLE (68.0) $2.00
5 MAHTOUM (61.5) $9.50
6 MOORING'S MELODY (60.5) $12.50
14 LUTALO (59.5) $16.70
12 SERPENTINE (58.0) $25.00
----------------------------
4 SATURDAY FEVER (58.0) $25.00

Duritz...
Your a funny man...I think ADRIAAANN is the only word one has deciphered in the whole of the rocky balboa script...The rest is just a blubbering of words overlapping each other..
For me to win as Ivan Drago said .." I MUST BREAK YOU"....haha

Top Rank..
My explanation for what its worth. You will notice i dont have fastnet rock at all in the top five. For me i found this ratings challenge more of an oppurtunity to experiment a different method, as i dont really use a weight rating method to make my betting selections. so i thought i would try and use the wizard to see how they fair. Just like every other rating methods, i believe they will throw up a discrepency now and then.
But i agree that fastnet rock will most likely start favourite..

An attempt to explain from a small time novice player.

Hi Top Rank,

I didn't have them in my top two for one reason only....

There are obvious chances which every man and his dog (or cat) will tip, then there's the overlooked horses capable of winning.

Alizes won first up last time carrying 58kg by 4 lengths.
Taikun by 1.3 lengths carrying 56.5

They'd both have to have a serious chance in this.

__________________
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Caulfield Race 6
2. Taikun
3. Lilando
1. Fastnet Rock
4. Don't Tell Tom
8. Alizes
6. Strikeline (Res.)

Canterbury Race 7
3. Winning Belle
2. Don Raphael
6. Mooring's Melody
5. Mahtoum
14. Lutalo
4. Saturday Fever (Res.)

Thanks,
QFB

Whoops! Make that Feb 26, not Jan!

I feel better now.

Cheers,
QFB

Thanks for the reply Chrome.

Are you saying that you are tipping with the hope that you get a winner that the rest of the crowd will not get. You are not actually saying that The Rock or The Belle are not excellent chances with you.

I just thought we were tipping with what we really think about the race.

Good Punting

MR6
1 11x1-Fastnet Rock (6) 2.50
7 1321-Foreplay (5) 6.20
3 14x5-Lilando (8) 6.80
4 111x-Don't Tell Tom (1) 9.30
2 140x-Taikun (9) 10.70

SR7
3 Winning Belle 2.50
5 Mahtoum 5.00
8 Grandly 6.80
14 Lutalo 10.70
6 Mooring's Melody 12.50
7 Leg Irons (reserve)

Gday All

Sportz. I will be workin so I have thrown an xtra in In Syd... just mark em in order

Race 6 3:30 PM Oakleigh Plate. Handicap
Group 1 Apprentices Cannot Claim.
1 Fastnet Rock $3.91
7 Foreplay $5.21
3 Lilando $6.98
6 Strikeline $9.31
9 Danbird $12.22


Race 7 10:00 PM De Bortoli - Canterbury Cup. Handicap
Group 3 Apprentices Cannot Claim.
3 Winning Belle $3.63
14 Lutalo $6.48
12 Serpentine $11.34
7 Leg Irons $11.34
4 Saturday Fever $15.13
1 Another Warrior $15.13

__________________
Good luck and good punting

xptdriver@hotmail.com

They are excellent chances, and this is a ratings comp, not a tipping comp. I realise.

Just to demonstrate, here are the ratings I have.

12 Serpentine 58
9 Red Hot Pepper 56
8 Grandly 56
5 Mahtoum 55
14 Lutalo 54
3 Winning Belle 54
6 Mooring's Melody 53

AND

8 Alizes 64
2 Taikun 58
4 Don't Tell Tom 56
1 Fastnet Rock 55
3 Lilando 55
6 Strikeline 54
7 Foreplay 53

I'm not doing that well, so I've experimented with a different method

Best of luck today.

__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 420,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 30/06/2025
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg