Makes sense to me Paddy, but bit soon to call it a 1 horse race.

Anything can happen. A few injuries, suspensions, another team getting up momentum.

Being a lions fan I hope you Paddy are right
Leigh matthews is a sly dog.He might have just said ,go get the four points and dont get injuries or strained hammies and quads from kicking too many goals.Most of the team are uninjured,so thats good.Would you take -53.5 this week after last week,I wouldnt
Cheers

Do you think he might also have so "Go and play like ********"?
I don't think so.
They had a bad day.It happens.Lost control of themselves.
Bookies aren't giving away 53 points to Bulldogs fans because they are feel sorry for them.
It's because that is what the margin will be at the end.

No no no Mo.

That's what they THINK the margin will be.

Well they've got most of my money this season.
And many a time Mr J,you have corrected me if I think the margin will be somewhat different than what the bookies are offering,then I must have made a mistake somewhere in my analysis.
Mr J.
53 is about right.
If bookies were punters they would be sitting here with us.They are very astute business men.
I have changed my betting procedures to allow for intangible things.

The Vibe.
Gut feeling.
G/M's summary.
And other things I haven't decided on yet.Maybe the ins-and-outs,weather,sackings,retirements,momentous occasions.
Typically stuff the bookies did not factor in,and never will.

I'm just saying that's the bookies predication. It's just the best estimate they can come up with.

"They are very astute business men."

Yeh and I'm from mars...:smile:

"Typically stuff the bookies did not factor in,and never will."

That is not the only way to beat the bookies, and is actually more difficult. In more inefficient markets such as AFL or NRL, it's simply easier to utilize exisiting information better than the bookies do.

Yep, I did end up having a small wager on Hawthorn with 7.5 start and I'd pretty much given up on them halfway through the last quarter, but thanks to a few late goals, they ended up going down by just 4. :smile:

Yeh good result, would've been better if they'd lost by 7 or 8 so my middle hit.

Would've been 3u profit instead of 1u, but I'll take it.