Xmas Cup placegetters should fight it out. Weight advantage and improved fitness should see Stoway turn the tables on Reclaim. Navy Blue will appreciate step up in distance, very smart win 3 starts back over this journey. Trinity Song for 4th.

I think this is a very difficult race to sort out.

Firstly there is a lot of speed with 11.Institution (who probably leads and returns to his best distance range), 3. Fiery Venture, 4. Stoway, 5. Vareza, 13. Carngo and 10. Art Official all likely to push forward. Secondly, there are several different formlines to sort out: those that finished behind Reclaim two weeks ago (listed race); those that finished behind Ike's Dream in a high rating Villiers last week (group 2, Randwick track record); those that finished behind Vareza last week (open handicap); the others, some of whom are pushing on from the Brisbane summer carnival.

Then there are the unknowns. 8. Northern Beau from New Zealand. He ran 2nd over 2400m in listed company last start. I discount him, because his best form is on wet tracks and because the class of the race looks beyond him. 17. Run Rita Run has won 3 from 3 up to 1,600m in a 4yo and up 0MW race. He is by Runyon who was a class middle distance performer in Melbourne even when getting on in years. It is possible that the sharp distance rise will suit, but the class jump of around 6 lengths will more than likely sort him out.

Clearly horses like 9.Navy Blue, 6.Padfoot Charlie and 15.Trinity Song will be suited if, as I suspect, the tempo is hectic.

3. Fiery Venture is interesting - he held on well for sixth in the Villiers only 3.5 lengths away after being up on the speed. Jim Cassidy, who has ridden the gelding for 3 of his wins, takes the ride tomorrow replacing J Ford. Only 4 starts ago Fiery Venture won a group 3 race over 2000m by 3 lengths.

I won't be betting on this race but, for what it's worth, I rate them as follows:

1. Reclaim $5.0
3. Fiery Venture $5.7
5. Vareza $6.0
13. Carngo $8.5

I would also give winning chances to 4. Stoway, 6. Padfoot Charlie, 9.Navy Blue and 11. Institution.

Nice summary Filante!!!

I definitely agree with you RE pace of the race and think the backmarkers will possibly fight it out. A lot of value to be had in this race i suspect.

(15) Trinity Song
(6) Padfoot Charlie
(3) Fiery Venture
(1) Reclaim.

Cheers.

__________________
Good luck and good punting.

And remember a profit a day keeps the Girlfriend/Wife away.

Track good, scratched 17 - Run Rita Run & 18 - Emgee Rex

Current fixed odds (after scratchings):

No. Selection Win Place
105 Fiery Venture $5.50 $2.10
112 Reclaim $6.00 $2.25
108 Navy Blue $7.50 $2.50
114 Stoway $9.00 $3.00
119 Vereza $9.00 $3.00
111 Padfoot Charlie $11.00 $3.50
101 Carngo $15.00 $4.50
109 New York Style $15.00 $4.50
106 Institution $17.00 $5.00
102 Caught Courting $21.00 $6.00
107 Make Me a Miracle $26.00 $7.25
116 This Manshood $26.00 $7.25
118 Trinity Song $26.00 $7.25
110 Northern Beau $34.00 $9.25
100 Art Official $51.00 $13.50
104 Famous Dane $51.00 $13.50

Fiery Venture
Stoway
Trinity Song
New York Style

Closing fixed odds market:

No. Selection Win Place
003 Fiery Venture $5.50 $2.10
001 Reclaim $6.50 $2.35
004 Stoway $9.00 $3.00
005 Vereza $9.00 $3.00
009 Navy Blue $9.00 $3.00
006 Padfoot Charlie $11.00 $3.50
013 Carngo $15.00 $4.50
007 New York Style $17.00 $5.00
011 Institution $17.00 $5.00
014 Caught Courting $21.00 $6.00
002 This Manshood $26.00 $7.25
012 Make Me a Miracle $26.00 $7.25
015 Trinity Song $26.00 $7.25
008 Northern Beau $34.00 $9.25
010 Art Official $51.00 $13.50
016 Famous Dane $51.00 $13.50
017 Run Rita Run 1em Scratched Scratched
018 Emgee Rex 2em Scratched Scratched

Final market movement:

No. Selection Previous Final
003 Fiery Venture $7.00 $5.50
001 Reclaim $5.00 $6.50
004 Stoway $9.00 $9.00
005 Vereza $11.00 $9.00
009 Navy Blue $6.50 $9.00
006 Padfoot Charlie $11.00 $11.00
013 Carngo $13.00 $15.00
007 New York Style $15.00 $17.00
011 Institution $17.00 $17.00
014 Caught Courting $21.00 $21.00
002 This Manshood $26.00 $26.00
012 Make Me a Miracle $26.00 $26.00
015 Trinity Song $21.00 $26.00
008 Northern Beau $26.00 $34.00
010 Art Official $34.00 $51.00
016 Famous Dane $34.00 $51.00
017 Run Rita Run 1em $51.00 Scratched
018 Emgee Rex 2em $101.00 Scratched

This Manshood / Art Official EW

06 SAN MIGUEL SUMMER
3YO+ CUP
2400 Metres
4:20pm
1ST LEG DAILY DOUBLE
2ND LEG QUADRELLA

WIN/PLACE
2 16.70 5.10
5.............3.00
7.............7.20
QUINELLA 86.20
EXACTA 164.40
TRIFECTA 3567.30
FIRST4 104442.80
(2-5-7-14)
-JACKPOT 33232.15
SPECIAL DIV 15.80

( 2) THIS MANSHOOD
( 5) VEREZA
( 7) NEW YORK STYLE

SCR - 17,18
QUADRELLA SUB - 3

__________________
Ta me go maith