Setting up this thread for all my selections and results. Feel free to lavish praise on me when I go well but go easy on me when I stuff up

Thursday Selections

Werribee

Selections

Race 2
7 TEPPISTA
6 SO VAGUELY
4 MR FRENCHMAN
Race 3
4 IN NEED I AM
5 FAMILY JEWELS
3 WHITEHAVEN GIRL
Race 6
4 LUMINARY
5 AUSSIE HUMOR
3 GALVANIC
Race 7
5 SPECTRA BAY
4 VEREKER STREET
1 CASA DELL ORO
Race 8
5 REDHILL
2 STAR OF KENTUCKY
3 TAYOSHI

Wyong

Selections

Race 3
2 ENTER THE DRAGON
3 LORD VERDI
1 MIDNIGHT MARMALADE
Race 5
1 TOLIVA
2 MELODYSSEY
4 CANADIAN TWILIGHT
Race 6
3 CLANG FASHION
4 CARDGAMES
2 IMTOPS
Race 9
9 KATIE KERFUFFLE
6 ONSCHULDIG
10 LADY OF HONOURS

__________________
Regards,
The Guru

I'll be keeping a running tally of my selections. These are the results for the last two days (tips were in the "tips for scone" and "Wednesday Selections" threads).

ALL SELECTIONS
Selections 66
Winners 18
All selections strike rate 27.27%
Average Price $5.23
Gross return 94.2
All selections POT 42.73%

TOP SELECTIONS
Selections 26
Winners 11
Top Selections Strike rate 42.31%
Average Price $3.35
Gross return 36.8
Top Selections POT 41.54%

Note: The top selections are the selections that come first out of the three selections per race. They are the highest raters. If they are scratched then the next selection becomes the Top Selection and so on.

__________________
Regards,
The Guru

GURU,

I don't know if you are arriving at your figures of over 40% POT on both your selection methods from a highly creative accounting method or you have a very generious bookie [?]

When I saw your 40% plus POT result figures I was blown away!

Below is a copy and paste of your "tips for Scone" and "Wednesday selections".
The results below are uni tab prices as you didn't say which results you were using [?]. Please let me know because if your figures are correct, I want to use your bookmaker too! :-)

Scone Tues. 14/11

Selections
Race 1
1 15 MIDAS STAR
2 9 IMAGE DANCER
3 5 LOCHIE'S GOLD
Race 2
1 1 BLACK REIGN
2 9 AFRICAN MIST
3 10 DUCHESS ZAFONIC 5.30w
Race 3
1 8 WAY PAST MIDNIGHT
2 5 COERCIVE ACT
3 1 CRITICISM
Race 4
1 1 BRYNNER
2 7 MEDIA PLANET
3 10 NOZZEDD
Race 5
1 2 DRAVID
2 6 GION GEISHA
3 11 SHOWER UPON
Race 6
1 7 CASTLING
2 9 CUXIANN 11.20w
3 3 DULCINA
Race 7
1 2 SUSSMAN
2 6 DORER
3 10 JUNGLE ECHO
Race 8
1 13 SIR COVET 6.10w
2 5 SUBREILLY
3 14 TENDER KISSES
Race 9
1 8 LADY ENZED 5.70w
2 1 CHYNA SUCCESS
3 2 DROMOS

Results for either betting method;
On top: Outlay 9 units / return 11.80 /profit 2.80
All selections: Outlay 27 units / return 28.30 /profit 1.30
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Canterbury Wed. 15/11

Selections
Race 1
1 DEARNESS 1.50w
3 CALALUNA
2 HERBATOME
Race 2
2 ST ALESSIO
1 CASA DEL ROYALE
3 VANIDOSA 23.50w
Race 3
2 REDNRICH
3 SAACHI
6 WISHYOUWEREMINE
Race 4
6 SPINNER'S MAGIC 1.40w
7 CLANG FASHION
11 CARRY THE KING
Race 5
3 CUTTING IN
9 WHAT A KASE
1 EMPEROR FU SAN 3.40w
Race 7
1 RADETZKY MARCH
5 CENTRE FIRE
4 ANABATIK

Results for either betting method:
On top: Outlay 6 units / Return 2.90 / Loss 3.10
All selections: Outlay 18 units / Return 29.80 / profit 11.80
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Bendigo 15/11

Selections
Race 1
2 ROAD TO DUNDEE
1 SIPOWICZ 2.30w
4 STONEAGE ROMEO
Race 2
4 BONNELLE
5 SHEEZA BONZA
1 BRIEF ALLIANCE
Race 3
6 ALLENBY'S MATE
1 LONGSTREET 5.70
2 WELL RESEARCHED
Race 6
9 TREMEZZO
5 THE BREAKER
3 CAVAGGIO
Race 7
2 GALLIC 2.60w
1 DELVECCHIO
6 JUKEBOX JOHNNY
Race 8
3 STICKPIN 1.60w
4 TWISTED TIMES
9 UNCLE WILLY
Race 9
5 WALNUT CREEK
9 WHITE GOLD
2 LAUGHING POINT
Race 10
8 MONESTE
5 WINNERSAREGRINNERS 4.90w
1 STAR OF KENTUCKY

Results for either betting method
On top: Outlay 8 units / Return 4.20 / Loss 3.80
All selections: Outlay 24 units / Return / 17.10 / Loss 6.90
---------------------------------------------------------------
Overall results for either betting method:
On top: Outlay 23 units /Return 18.90/ Loss 4.10

All Selections: Outlay 69 units /Return 75.20 / Profit 6.20
[without the 23.50w longshot, there would have been a loss of 17.30].
-----------------------------------------------------------

G'day Crash,

That's fair enough to be skeptical mate.

I should explain that because I base my selections on my ratings I don't bet on races where there are first starters. I did post selections for those races in the "tips for scone" thread but they don't go into my records and hence were not counted as part of my balance sheet. I did mention this in my blog site.

I also don't bet every day but for the sake of testing my ratings and selection method I will post selections (and results) for every day and see how they hold up.

When I do bet I NEVER bet on the TAB. With all due respect betting on the TAB (whether it be NSW TAB, unitab or supertab) is a mugs game. You are, more often than not, taking the worst price possible.

I have several betting accounts. If I'm at home then I mainly use Betfair (can't beat betting to a tick over 100% market). If I have to go out for the day then I use best fluctuation with Centrebet or Sportingbet (on the days they offer bf).

I have decided to use the same source for my results for consistency sake. I use the results from Racing and Sports. This is the link to the bendigo results.... racingandsports.com.au/racing/raceresultsonly.asp?storydate=15/11/2006&meetings=bdgo I'm fairly certain (correct me if I'm wrong) that the prices from these results are the final bookie prices.

Some of those winners paid better on the other tabs than uni tab e.g. duchess zafonic ($6 nsw tab, $7 supertab), cuxiann ($12.30 nsw tab, $14.30 supertab), sir covet ($6.8 nsw tab, $7.30 supertab), lady enzed ($6.30 nswtab, $6.40 supertab). That's tips from scone, haven't checked the others.

I should also add that their were scratchings so those bets in the ALL SELECTIONS results do not count to the outlay for obvious reasons. The scratchings also at times changed the TOP SELECTION to the second rated horse after the top rated horse was scratched. Sheeza Bonza and Winneraregrinners were second rated selections but they became TOP SELECTIONS when the top rated selections were scratched.

I've posted the individual results from my blog site below. As you can see Lady Enzed actually pays worse with the final bookie dividend than any tab price. I'm sure the best fluc or betfair would have matched the tabs price at worst.

No creative accounting going on here crash. I should have explained myself before posting selections and results. Hope this clears things up.

It should be noted that these are results for two days and 40% POT is achieveable if you have a hot run. I'm sure that their will be an overcorrection in days to come and the POT will come down but as long as I stay in profit I'm happy.

Which betting agencies do you bet with?
Tuesday results


Scone

Results Race 5
1 2 DRAVID 3rd
2 6 GION GEISHA 7th
3 11 SHOWER UPON 8th
Race 6
1 7 CASTLING 9th
2 9 CUXIANN WON $13
3 3 DULCINA 11th
Race 7
1 2 SUSSMAN Scr
2 6 DORER 4th
3 10 JUNGLE ECHO Scr
Race 8
1 13 SIR COVET WON $6.50
2 5 SUBREILLY 9th
3 14 TENDER KISSES Scr
Race 9
1 8 LADY ENZED WON $4.80
2 1 CHYNA SUCCESS 3rd
3 2 DROMOS 5th


Hamilton

Results
Race 1
1 #1 BEYOND PARADISE WON $2.50
2 #2 SUNGARRIN TANGO Scr
3 #3 ZETLAND 3rd
Race 2
1 #2 PHANTOM FLIGHT 2nd
2 #1 FURIOUS DEE WON $4.60
3 #4 NOTHIN' BUT A STAR 4th
Race 3
1 #1 BONNEY POINT WON $2.80
2 #6 GAY MILL 2nd
3 #4 SETEMUP 4th Race 5
1 #9 KIRI AT THE PALACE WON $2.50
2 #1 CLASSY DREW 3rd
3 #14 ROK MELODY 7th
Race 6
1 #5 XSPARKX 6th
2 #7 TWENTY TO LIFE 4th
3 #3 IRKUTSK 2nd
Race 7
1 #4 SNOWTORQUE Scr
2 #1 BOMBAY FLYER 6th
3 #2 DON HERNANDO 3rd
Race 8
1 #3 GIVITWOMEY 3rd
2 #7 FEEL THE STING 2nd
3 #5 GARDEN CLOSE 5th


Wednesday Results


CANTERBURY RESULTS

Race 1
1 DEARNESS WON $1.80
3 CALALUNA 2ND
2 HERBATOME 4TH
Race 2
2 ST ALESSIO 3RD
1 CASA DEL ROYALE 2ND
3 VANIDOSA WON $21.00
Race 3
2 REDNRICH 3RD
3 SAACHI 11TH
6 WISHYOUWEREMINE WON $7.00
Race 4
6 SPINNER'S MAGIC WON $1.50
7 CLANG FASHION SCR
11 CARRY THE KING 7TH
Race 5
3 CUTTING IN 10TH
9 WHAT A KASE 13TH
1 EMPEROR FU SAN WON $3.50
Race 7
1 RADETZKY MARCH 2ND
5 CENTRE FIRE 6TH
4 ANABATIK 8TH

BENDIGO RESULTS

Race 1
2 ROAD TO DUNDEE 2ND
1 SIPOWICZ WON $2.30
4 STONEAGE ROMEO SCR
Race 2
4 BONNELLE SCR
5 SHEEZA BONZA WON $5.00
1 BRIEF ALLIANCE 2ND
Race 3
6 ALLENBY'S MATE 3RD
1 LONGSTREET WON $6.00
2 WELL RESEARCHED 4TH
Race 6
9 TREMEZZO 2ND
5 THE BREAKER 4TH
3 CAVAGGIO 7TH
Race 7
2 GALLIC WON $2.80
1 DELVECCHIO 6TH
6 JUKEBOX JOHNNY SCR
Race 8
3 STICKPIN (NZ) WON $1.70
4 TWISTED TIMES 4TH
9 UNCLE WILLY 5TH
Race 9
5 WALNUT CREEK 4TH
9 WHITE GOLD 3RD
2 LAUGHING POINT SCR
Race 10
8 MONESTE SCR
5 WINNERSAREGRINNERS WON $4.90
1 STAR OF KENTUCKY SCR

Hi,

I just pointed out the [seeming] inconsistency because if your posting profit POTs etc., it's standard practice here to display any special conditions [not bet if...] and where your betting regarding your selections when posted and also showing results when claiming profits.
Hindsight can be a wonderful thing for belated and obscure [not in your posts here] special condt. and pricing claims after the event.

One thing about tipping on this site and that's as sure as the sun will go down, someone here will check your results !

Anyhow, good luck with it. I'm not sure that betting 3 horses per race though is such a good idea overall. 2 of your races you had winners in only had 4 runners in each race and the winners were odds-on.

How about joining the 'sudden death' comp. ?

cheers.

Crash,

I really don't have anything to gain from inflating my results. I'm not that vain The selections and results are more of a way to gauge my ratings method. I'm just airing my dirty laundry (clean at the moment ) for the public to see rather than do it privately. It keeps me in check and provides accountability as well as offering the chance to get feedback.

Thanks for the well wishes and I'm sure you (and other posters) will keep me in check if I do a mistake here and there. That's exactly what I'm after...a public aduit system

I totally agree with you re not backing all three selections. I bet only the top selection and always "on the nose". I have considered the idea of backing more than one horse in a race on a consistent basis and the ALL SELECTION results is way for me to gauge the strength of my ratings and see whether it is worthwhile to bet on more than one horse.

So in summing up;

*my selections are based on my ratings and are in order with the highest rater on top.
*I only bet on the Top Selection and will provide results for the Top Selections but will also gauge ALL Selection results.
*Results are from the Racing and Sports website.
*I will not replace scratchings with other selections (too much work for me) so if all three are scratched then it becomes a no bet race. If the Top rater is scratched then the next rated horse becomes the Top Selection.
*I will only provide selections on races where every runner has had at least one race start.

I think that's about it.

Gee, the pressure is on to perform today

__________________
Regards,
The Guru

I sincerely hope you do well in your punting mate.

Thanks Crash.

Today's results...

Werribee

Results

Race 2
7 TEPPISTA WON $5.50
6 SO VAGUELY 4TH
4 MR FRENCHMAN 6TH
Race 3
4 IN NEED I AM SCR
5 FAMILY JEWELS 5TH
3 WHITEHAVEN GIRL WON $3.30
Race 6
4 LUMINARY SCR
5 AUSSIE HUMOR WON $4.40
3 GALVANIC 4TH
Race 7
5 SPECTRA BAY 4TH
4 VEREKER STREET 3RD
1 CASA DELL ORO WON $3.50
Race 8
5 REDHILL 7TH
2 STAR OF KENTUCKY 6TH
3 TAYOSHI 8TH

Wyong

Results

Race 3
2 ENTER THE DRAGON 3RD
3 LORD VERDI 2ND
1 MIDNIGHT MARMALADE 7TH
Race 5
1 TOLIVA WON $1.40
2 MELODYSSEY 4TH
4 CANADIAN TWILIGHT 5TH
Race 6
3 CLANG FASHION 4TH
4 CARDGAMES WON $10.00
2 IMTOPS 7TH
Race 9
9 KATIE KERFUFFLE 4TH
6 ONSCHULDIG 6TH
10 LADY OF HONOURS 9TH


Balance sheet

ALL SELECTIONS
Selections 91
Winners 24
All selections strike rate 26.37%
Average Price $5.10
Gross return 122.3
All selections POT 34.40%

TOP SELECTIONS
Selections 35
Winners 14
Top Selections Strike rate 40.00%
Average Price $3.44
Gross return 48.1
Top Selections POT 37.43%

__________________
Regards,
The Guru

Friday Selections....

Moonee Valley


Race 3
9 ZANZIDIYM
6 SESARO ROAD
5 ANOTHERCAT
Race 4
8 PUNCHELOT
2 SCENIC SILVER
7 ELYRAQ
Race 5
3 FOUR POSTER
4 IL FAVORITO
7 GENERAL MACKJOSH
Race 6
1 BENKO
7 HANDSOME IS
8 LADY LYN
Race 7
5 WARSHAWSKY
9 EMILYDELAGO
1 TRIFOLD

Port Macquarie

Race 2
8 FIERY COMMAND
5 HELLO SUGAR
12 PARTY KEEPER
Race 3
8 CANNY INSPIRE
4 GOLDIE'S PROSPECT
2 ADMIRAL HALSEY
Race 4
3 ARCHGATE
7 ANGULAR
2 BE BRIEF
Race 5
5 LUMIERE D'ETOILE
2 SO THE CAT SAID
6 TONDANO
Race 6
1 IMPALA BULLET
3 FINE CHEVAL
5 MISTER LANE
Race 7
1 FUJI STAR
3 JUNGLE ECHO
5 NATAL LAD
Race 8
5 LADD
6 LIKE CHOCOLATE
8 ROSE GENERAL

__________________
Regards,
The Guru

Here are the results so far.....Moonee Valley racing tonight.....all results and balance sheet will be posted later tonight.....(a few good quinellas there )

Port Macquarie

Results

Race 2
8 FIERY COMMAND WON $5.00
5 HELLO SUGAR 11TH
12 PARTY KEEPER 10TH
Race 3
8 CANNY INSPIRE 10TH
4 GOLDIE'S PROSPECT 13TH
2 ADMIRAL HALSEY 9TH
Race 4
3 ARCHGATE WON $8.50 (3,7 quinella paid $110 on nswtab)
7 ANGULAR 2ND
2 BE BRIEF 7TH
Race 5
5 LUMIERE D'ETOILE 2ND
2 SO THE CAT SAID WON $3.20 (5,2 quinella paid $12.50 on nswtab)
6 TONDANO 7TH
Race 6
1 IMPALA BULLET 7TH
3 FINE CHEVAL WON $4.40 (3,5 quin paid $56.50)
5 MISTER LANE 2ND
Race 7
1 FUJI STAR 6TH
3 JUNGLE ECHO 2ND (3,5 quin paid $40.70)
5 NATAL LAD WON $10
Race 8
5 LADD 7th
6 LIKE CHOCOLATE 2ND
8 ROSE GENERAL 8th