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  #91  
Old 14th January 2018, 07:03 PM
woof43 woof43 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by UselessBettor
I am looking for a good spread in the odds and the ratings which allow the real chances to be identified. For form I am looking for races where there are horses in form (wins/placings/beaten lengths close) so that I know the chances will perform to expectations.

Anyway if you are having a punt today good luck with it.


Of interest Skill vs Luck "A spread in the performance envelopes of runners and between runners"

To gain a better understanding of Skill Vs Luck, do a search for Michael Mauboussin who is maybe the pre-eminent authority on this subject
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  #92  
Old 14th January 2018, 11:02 PM
Snert Snert is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by woof43
Of interest Skill vs Luck "A spread in the performance envelopes of runners and between runners"

To gain a better understanding of Skill Vs Luck, do a search for Michael Mauboussin who is maybe the pre-eminent authority on this subject


that was worth a listen, thanks woof43
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  #93  
Old 15th January 2018, 01:36 PM
Mark Mark is offline
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An hour well spent and ties in nicely with a book I'm currently reading called "Quiet", which is about the success of introverts versus extroverts.
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  #94  
Old 15th January 2018, 05:43 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by woof43
Of interest Skill vs Luck "A spread in the performance envelopes of runners and between runners"

To gain a better understanding of Skill Vs Luck, do a search for Michael Mauboussin who is maybe the pre-eminent authority on this subject


Thanks. Looks like I got something to watch tonight.
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  #95  
Old 15th January 2018, 05:51 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Week 1: $1770 Profit
Week 2: $8280 Profit
Week 3: $2100 Profit

Day 22: $1130 Profit
Day 23: $4430 Loss

Total Profit : $8,850 Profit

Took a hit today. I put it down to over confidence and I need to pull my head in. Also distracted watching cricket rather then focusing on what I should be focused on. Missed on a lot more races then normal and should have gone wider in quite a few races. Its s nice reality check that losing days can and do happen.
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  #96  
Old 15th January 2018, 08:43 PM
The Ocho The Ocho is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by UselessBettor
Week 1: $1770 Profit
Week 2: $8280 Profit
Week 3: $2100 Profit

Day 22: $1130 Profit
Day 23: $4430 Loss

Total Profit : $8,850 Profit

Took a hit today. I put it down to over confidence and I need to pull my head in. Also distracted watching cricket rather then focusing on what I should be focused on. Missed on a lot more races then normal and should have gone wider in quite a few races. Its s nice reality check that losing days can and do happen.

Sorry to hear that UB. You've been going great though and I suppose you were due for a slight correction.

Thanks for keeping us all informed of your progress.
__________________
Never give up on a dream just because of the time it will take to accomplish it. The time will pass anyway.

― Earl Nightingale
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  #97  
Old 16th January 2018, 10:15 AM
Snert Snert is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Ocho
Sorry to hear that UB. You've been going great though and I suppose you were due for a slight correction.

Thanks for keeping us all informed of your progress.


Hi The Ocho, UselessBettor's two losses have nothing to do with a correction being due.

UselessBettor's two losing days were a result of 1) being tired and didn't pay attention and 2) overconfident, distracted and lack of focus. These are UselessBettor's words.
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  #98  
Old 16th January 2018, 07:15 PM
Mark Mark is offline
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UB, did you work Gunnedah R8 today?, and if so how did it treat you?
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  #99  
Old 16th January 2018, 08:52 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mark
UB, did you work Gunnedah R8 today?, and if so how did it treat you?


I wasn't betting today as I was travelling to the big city . I just double checked and a few of my systems layed it turning the race into a loss. Nothing too significant though.

I also checked if I would have been betting in that race and I would have seriously thought about excluding it from the winners. But after the loss the other day I would probably have gone wider and included it because of this statistic:

Course : 50% strike rate.
Distance : 18% strike rate.

But realistically its really hard to check after a race as its easy to see things which you may have missed before the race. Hindsight bias. But then I see it had 0 wins from 40 runs on Good ground so I probably would have excluded it and lost on that race as that would have been something that pushed me to exlude it from the selections.

So yeah that race would have been a loss. 1 or 2 losing races a day is ok as you recover that with the wins. But its a problem when I lose 5+ races like the other day.
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  #100  
Old 16th January 2018, 08:54 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Ocho
Sorry to hear that UB. You've been going great though and I suppose you were due for a slight correction.

Thanks for keeping us all informed of your progress.


Yeah losing sucks. I never said making a profit was easy (was feeling that way for a while though). I'll hopefully bounce back this weekend with some better results.
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