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  #41  
Old 1st May 2018, 08:17 AM
demodocus demodocus is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by UselessBettor
Oh no. It happens. As we know all horses have a chance and sometimes those long shots do get up. Still makes you annoyed though as now your next 34 bets are just recovery bets and no new profit


As Con The Fruiterer used to say ...... "Coupla Daze"
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  #42  
Old 2nd May 2018, 10:07 AM
demodocus demodocus is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by UselessBettor
Still makes you annoyed though as now your next 34 bets are just recovery bets and no new profit


Oh UB. Jack and I are now back to break even .... where I was b4 the previous disaster ..... this morning (much to Mr Jack's delight). Square with where I was b4 the 'catastrophe' ............... and it doesn't really matter.

I have NO investment.

This is ALL fun money ..... OPM .... and still 300% up (on original bank).

Soon I'll be in a position to buy a decent mattress so I don't spend my nights making money.

:-)
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  #43  
Old 2nd May 2018, 10:47 AM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by demodocus
Oh UB. Jack and I are now back to break even .... where I was b4 the previous disaster ..... this morning (much to Mr Jack's delight). Square with where I was b4 the 'catastrophe' ............... and it doesn't really matter.

I have NO investment.

This is ALL fun money ..... OPM .... and still 300% up (on original bank).

Soon I'll be in a position to buy a decent mattress so I don't spend my nights making money.

:-)


Nice work. I guess you had at lest 34 bets last night That is a good effort without an automated system.
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  #44  
Old 4th May 2018, 09:39 AM
demodocus demodocus is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by UselessBettor
Nice work. I guess you had at lest 34 bets last night That is a good effort without an automated system.


Here is tonight :-

2320 LING
2340 MUSS
0000 CHEP
0010 MUSS
0040 MUSS
0050 LING
0110 MUSS
0120 LING
0140 MUSS
0150 LING
0215 MUSS

then turn off the light.

There are 3 later NEWC races but they depend on whether or not Mr Jack (my 16 yo friend) gets me up to take him for a walk.

There are some VERY serious risks in my approach. Yesterday I was tempted to LAY a $21 horse at WoopWoop after a 187 day spell but was distracted by something at the off and the ************ thing WON.

Perhaps the approach is to keep taking "dividends" rather than increasing bet size.
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  #45  
Old 4th May 2018, 04:56 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by demodocus
There are some VERY serious risks in my approach. Yesterday I was tempted to LAY a $21 horse at WoopWoop after a 187 day spell but was distracted by something at the off and the ************ thing WON.

Perhaps the approach is to keep taking "dividends" rather than increasing bet size.


Lucky miss on that one.

Increasing bet size only works when you are building a bank and increasing the stake based on your maximum risk as a percentage.

Im assuming a $187 x $21 stake losing (4K loss) would hit your bank hard ? I would expect you have built your bank over the last 3 months in anticipation of one of them eventually winning.

One of my rules is to be very wary of horse resuming as you never know how much they have improved unless you have some barrier runs to check.

If you do end up increasing your bet size, then wait until you take a $10K loss in one day and see how that feels? The first time it happened to me I was not a happy person to be around.

The best advice I can give is treat your bank as 1000 units and look at any losses as a percentage of those 1000 units then it tends to not hurt so much. When I do it that way I never get below 920 units (8% draw down) and I am rarely less then 970 units (3% draw down). But I am very low risk compared to most people.
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  #46  
Old 4th May 2018, 05:40 PM
Chrome Prince Chrome Prince is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by demodocus
As Con The Fruiterer used to say ...... "Coupla Daze"

I met Mark Mitchell at a restaurant in Brighton, very serious man, he did say that he got sick of people asking him to do the routine. This was about five years ago.
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http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
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  #47  
Old 4th May 2018, 05:42 PM
Chrome Prince Chrome Prince is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by UselessBettor
One of my rules is to be very wary of horse resuming as you never know how much they have improved unless you have some barrier runs to check.


Very astute UB, there are a lot of resuming horses with bad past form that get up and win, especially after being gelded, but not restricted to that.
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RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 301,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 31/07/2018
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg
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  #48  
Old 4th May 2018, 09:37 PM
The Ocho The Ocho is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chrome Prince
I met Mark Mitchell at a restaurant in Brighton, very serious man, he did say that he got sick of people asking him to do the routine. This was about five years ago.

Bewdiful
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  #49  
Old 5th May 2018, 08:59 AM
demodocus demodocus is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by UselessBettor
Increasing bet size only works when you are building a bank and increasing the stake based on your maximum risk as a percentage.


Thanks for the advice ... much appreciated.

What I've done to date is withdraw my original bank when I'd doubled it so I'm not tempted to "double-up" (been there, done that, ugly). So far I've withdrawn 2 additional "original banks" and am now plodding along quietly with my $21 method in the UK and $11 in Oz.

Tonight is Goodwood, Wetherby, and Newmarket for 8 races going to the land of nod early at 0040 :-)

Last edited by demodocus : 5th May 2018 at 09:02 AM. Reason: Insert additional information.
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  #50  
Old 5th May 2018, 10:45 AM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by demodocus
Thanks for the advice ... much appreciated.

What I've done to date is withdraw my original bank when I'd doubled it so I'm not tempted to "double-up" (been there, done that, ugly). So far I've withdrawn 2 additional "original banks" and am now plodding along quietly with my $21 method in the UK and $11 in Oz.

Tonight is Goodwood, Wetherby, and Newmarket for 8 races going to the land of nod early at 0040 :-)


Whatever works for you I say go with it. Its all about finding methods/systems that are winning and we are comfortable with.

Last night (from about 9pm till 2am) was a bit of a shocker for my systems. I hit a clump of losses and dropped a few thousand in the space of 4 hours. It was due though as I had been having a really good week up till that point hitting new bank highs almost every day.
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