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  #41  
Old 30th May 2018, 04:20 PM
partypooper partypooper is offline
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On the right "track" with Mornington (no "pun" intended) but the Princess kissed a frog!
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  #42  
Old 1st June 2018, 05:18 PM
Shaun Shaun is offline
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Thought i would choose 2 races for tomorrow

Rosehill Race 8
Moonee Valley Race 7

Both were chosen for the larger field size.
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  #43  
Old 1st June 2018, 06:34 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Shaun
Thought i would choose 2 races for tomorrow

Rosehill Race 8
Moonee Valley Race 7

Both were chosen for the larger field size.


Sounds good. Thanks for selecting them. I'll take a look tonight.
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  #44  
Old 1st June 2018, 08:00 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Well expecting SOFT tracks so doing my form based on that.

Mooney Valley:
Lay MIDAS MAN if he ends up racing. Price to lay is anywhere up to $100. Its unlikely to win.

Risky play is to lay GREY LION under $12. I price it closer to $20 but I want some buffer in there in case I am wrong as the market thinks it should be around $10-$15.

Rosehill: Finding it hard to find a profitable angle so should stay out of this one. I won't put real money on it but I would be looking to lay a couple of horses depending on price.

Lay MIGHTY LUCKY under $100.
Lay SIR BACCHUS under $30
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  #45  
Old 2nd June 2018, 12:51 AM
partypooper partypooper is offline
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Couple of hard races there, but my initial thoughts are MR 7-10, danger 12, and SR8-12 , saver J McDonald (again)
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  #46  
Old 2nd June 2018, 07:46 AM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by UselessBettor
Well expecting SOFT tracks so doing my form based on that.

Mooney Valley:
Lay MIDAS MAN if he ends up racing. Price to lay is anywhere up to $100. Its unlikely to win.

Risky play is to lay GREY LION under $12. I price it closer to $20 but I want some buffer in there in case I am wrong as the market thinks it should be around $10-$15.

Rosehill: Finding it hard to find a profitable angle so should stay out of this one. I won't put real money on it but I would be looking to lay a couple of horses depending on price.

Lay MIGHTY LUCKY under $100.
Lay SIR BACCHUS under $30


Just updating as MIDAS MAN is not racingL

Well expecting SOFT tracks so doing my form based on that.

Mooney Valley:
Risky play is to lay GREY LION under $12. I price it closer to $20 but I want some buffer in there in case I am wrong as the market thinks it should be around $10-$15.

Rosehill: Finding it hard to find a profitable angle so should stay out of this one. I won't put real money on it but I would be looking to lay a couple of horses depending on price.

Lay MIGHTY LUCKY under $100.
Lay SIR BACCHUS under $30
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  #47  
Old 2nd June 2018, 08:08 AM
The Ocho The Ocho is offline
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Rosehill Race 8 - Lay No 7 Special Missile
Moonee Valley Race 7 - 1 Lite'n In My Veins

Both only if under $10
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  #48  
Old 2nd June 2018, 09:33 AM
Shaun Shaun is offline
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I will try to explain a little about my ratings as this is a thread for learning.
My ratings are simply a numerical value placed against a form element, it is based around a ratings system i found in a magazine about 1995

Essentially they took 10,000 races and researched each form element to come up with an average, for example horses that have won over today's distance are 10% more likely to win, horses that have not won are 20% more likely to lose, so there is a 30% edge with winners over losers.

There are a few different factors and they even broke down some factors like winning percentages.

Once i have my rating for the race i then apply pricing, this is where it becomes interesting because i don't just divide the rating in to the total to get a percentage and price, each runner is compared to the other runners in the race to determine how strong they are, in simple ratings if you had 2 horses in different races that scored the same points they would get the same price, with my pricing model i could have a runner that actually scored higher but have a much bigger price.

The main weakness with this whole system is i could have some wild prices compared to the market, some good, some bad.

Enough of how i do things.

Rosehill Race 8 OCTAGONAL HANDICAP
No Runner R/Price
7 SPECIAL MISSILE 2.00
13 PASSAGE OF TIME 4.81

Moonee Valley Race 7 HANDICAP
No Runner R/Price
2 PILOTE D'ESSAI 2.21
11 MY NORDIC HERO 5.89

Quote:
Originally Posted by The Ocho
Rosehill Race 8 - Lay No 7 Special Missile

Game On

Quote:
Originally Posted by UselessBettor
Risky play is to lay GREY LION under $12. I price it closer to $20

I have it priced at 120/1 lets hope it runs as bad as that for you.
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  #49  
Old 2nd June 2018, 10:33 AM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Shaun
I have it priced at 120/1 lets hope it runs as bad as that for you.


I had it rated as the worst horse in the race then saw the odds and had to readjust it. I always readjust back to the market price as I trust they know something I don't.

When I rate something very different to the market I am more inclined to think I got it very wrong.
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  #50  
Old 2nd June 2018, 11:19 AM
evajb001 evajb001 is offline
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MV7
My ratings like 1,2,3 and 5. Out of these i'd say 2 and 3 have the best chance as the other two have wide barriers and will likely have to either come from the back or sit wide the trip, both of which is very unfavorable at the valley. I'm guessing grey lion is supported by the market a bit because its likely to settle in a forward position which is typically helpful at the valley. Its rated about $12 by my ratings.

ROSE8
Passage of Time ticks a lot of boxes for me as well shaun and is actually my top rater at $3. I'd also include 7,2 and 12 in my chances in that order. It looks like all of those should settle pretty handy with my only concern being for crafty cop that it might have to work hard from out wide to go forward.
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