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  #1  
Old 18th July 2018, 01:04 AM
walkermac walkermac is online now
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Default Melbourne Cup 2018



2018 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP
(158th of Series)
3200 Metres
TUESDAY 6 NOVEMBER 2018
At FLEMINGTON RACECOURSE, MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA


Prizes - (an increase of $1,050,000 on last year)
First - $4,000,000 and trophies valued at $200,000, $20,000, $15,000, $7,500 & $7,500 to owner, rider, trainer, strapper and breeder respectively
Second - $1,000,000
Third - $500,000
Fourth - $300,000
Fifth - $200,000
Sixth - $150,000
Seventh - $150,000
Eighth - $150,000
Ninth - $150,000
Tenth - $150,000
Eleventh - $150,000
Twelfth - $150,000

For horses earning prizemoney for being placed 1st – 10th inclusive, respective prizemonies payable shall be distributed as follows:
Owner - 85%; Trainer - 10%; Rider - 5%


Entries
Entries close at 12 NOON on THURSDAY 30 AUGUST 2018. Fee - $1800.
(Late Entries: Any horse not previously entered may be nominated before 12 NOON on THURSDAY 6 SEPTEMBER 2018. Fee - $5,500.)


Handicaps
Handicaps will be declared not later than TUESDAY 11 SEPTEMBER 2018.

Benchmark Weights:
3YO C&G 50.0kg; 3YO Filly 48.5kg
4YO E&G 58.0kg; 4YO Mare 56.5kg
5YO+ E&G 59.5kg 5YO+ Mare 58.0kg

Minimum Handicap Weight:
3YO 49.0kg
4YO&Up 50.0kg.

There is no maximum weight for this race. Minimum top weight of 58kg at the time of weights being released. There is no minimum top weight after acceptances.

No allowances for apprentices.


Weight Penalties
The Handicapper can determine that, after declaration of weights, a subsequent winner of an internationally recognised Listed, Group or Graded flat race may carry additional weight. (It's only applicable for handicapped races >= 1600m, or non-handicaps >= 2300m).


Declarations of Acceptance
First Declaration: TUESDAY 9 OCTOBER (Fee: $3,000)
Second Declaration: MONDAY 29 OCTOBER (Fee: $5,000)
Final Declaration: SATURDAY 3 NOVEMBER (Fee: $49,500)
Any horse for which a declaration is not received is removed from the race.


Rider Notification
By 7.00 PM, SATURDAY 3 NOVEMBER


Ballot Exemptions
- 2018 VRC Bart Cummings
- 2018 VRC Hotham Handicap
- 2018 MVRC Cox Plate
- 2018 MRC Caulfield Cup


Qualifying Performances

A) since 1 February 2017 inclusive, won or was placed 2nd or 3rd in an internationally recognised Group or Graded flat race run over 2300 metres or further;
OR won or was placed 2nd or 3rd in the Queensland Derby (2017 - Ruthven, Rockstar Rebel, Ana Royale; 2018 - Dark Dream, Heavenly Thought, Mahamedeis),
Queensland Oaks (2017 - Egg Tart, Pygmy, Oklahoma Girl; 2018 - Youngstar, Another Dollar, Sheezdashing)
or Brisbane Cup (2017 - Chocante, Single Gaze, Pemberley; 2018 - Sedanzer, Anton En Avant, Kiwia) OR

B) since 1 February 2017 inclusive, was placed 4th or 5th in an internationally recognised Group 1 or Grade 1 flat race run over 2300 metres or further in which horses older than 3 years old could run, OR

C) since 1 February 2017 inclusive, won an internationally recognised Listed flat race run over 2300 metres or further, OR

D) since 1 February 2017 inclusive, won or was placed 2nd or 3rd in the York Ebor (UK; 2017 - Nakeeta, Flymetothestars, Natural Scenery; 2018 - 25th August) or Champions & Chater Cup (HK; 2017 - Werther, Blazing Speed, Eagle Way; 2018 - Pakistan Star, Exultant, Gold Mount), OR

E) since 1 February 2017 inclusive, won the Northumberland Plate (UK; 2017 - Higher Power; 2018 - Withhold), Cesarewitch (UK; 2017 - Withhold; 2018 - October 13th), or Queen Mother Memorial Cup (HK; 2017 - Eagle Way; 2018 - Exultant), OR

F) was placed 6th, 7th or 8th in the 2018 MRC Caulfield Cup (20th October), OR

G) was placed 2nd or 3rd in the 2018 MVRC Cox Plate (27th October), OR

H) won the 2018 VRC Seppelt Turnbull Stakes (6th October), OR

I) won or was placed 2nd or 3rd in the 2016 Emirates Melbourne Cup (Almandan, Heartbreak City, Hartnell), OR

J) won the 2016 Caulfield Cup (Jameka)


Ballot order will be - asides from those runners who are exempt - in descending weight figure. Those of equal weight will be ordered by aggregate prizemoney received in the Qualifying Races since 1 February 2016 inclusive.


Progressive order of entry lists will be available on a regular basis from Friday 21 September 2018.


Flemington Facts
Course Proper (fully grassed - anti-clockwise, fully re-constructed in 2007)
Circumference 2312 Metres
Length of Straight 450 Metres
Width of Straight 30 Metres
Run To First Turn (Cup) 888 Metres
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  #2  
Old 18th July 2018, 01:10 AM
walkermac walkermac is online now
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This thread's a little bit early but there's news coming out, so may as well have a place to keep it all.

The international invasion on the 2018 Spring Racing Carnival has begun early, with confirmation that high-class Japanese horses Chestnut Coat and Sole Impact have both been entered for the $5 million Stella Artois Caulfield Cup (2400m) and the $7.3 million Lexus Melbourne Cup (3200m).
..
Multiple Group 1 winner Yuichi Fukunaga has been earmarked for the Melbourne Cup ride on Sole Impact, whilst Chestnut Coat’s connections have identified experienced jockey Yuga Kawada, who came to Australia in 2006 to help prepare Melbourne Cup runner-up Pop Rock, as the man to guide their galloper to glory in both Cups.
(https://rv.racing.com/news/2018-07-...-melbourne-cups)


Chestnut Coat is currently the $17 favourite with Centrebet in All-In betting. No price on Sole Impact.

Last edited by walkermac : 18th July 2018 at 01:14 AM.
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  #3  
Old 19th July 2018, 11:40 AM
walkermac walkermac is online now
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Reposting the Melbourne Cup "system" derived last year:

Less than 8 years old
Weight < 57kg (unless Makybe Diva)
Not a mare (unless Makybe Diva)
<= $21 starting price
< $16 in last start
Weighted lower than in preceding race
Field size in last race >= 10
Previously won a black type race
Finished within 7 lengths in last race
No more than 5 career victories
Within first 9 runners at the turn in last race

Prep race in Australia
2000m - 9000m of leadup racing


These were historical winner statistics quoted throughout the 2017 thread. Post-race I went back to look at which proposed statistics Rekindling had satisfied: shown in green above. He was also the only horse to satisfy all of the green categories:



Per above, the "Within 7L in last start" wasn't useful at all last year. Within 3 lengths would have done better. 9 of the top 10 were within that range, with Wicklow Brave in 10th being the one to miss out. Only 5 of the bottom 10 satisfied the condition.

The other item unearthed - and separated here due to it not being obtainable from freely available information - was having a Conduit Mare-derived Stamina figure of 17. 9 of the past 10 winners have now had this figure, whereas less than a quarter of starters had. There were 3 runners in the 2017 field who did: Rekindling, Almandin and Wicklow Brave.

Neither of the Japanese runners announced recently have won a black type race, being 0/3 and 0/13 respectively. That could change in the meantime, of course.
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  #4  
Old 19th July 2018, 08:02 PM
The Ocho The Ocho is offline
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Thumbs up

Thanks walkermac
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  #5  
Old 21st July 2018, 10:07 PM
Chrome Prince Chrome Prince is offline
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Very interesting thread, thanks Walkermac.
Now I know why they pay up the final acceptance price and also fly out, it's worth it up to 12th place. They have a 50% chance of taking home their fees or better.

Still think that 5% to the jockey is a bit dismal, I know if my jockey won the race, I'd be quite prepared to sling him 10%.

Remember "they need miles in their legs"
RIP Bart.
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  #6  
Old 22nd July 2018, 10:41 AM
walkermac walkermac is online now
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chrome Prince
Very interesting thread, thanks Walkermac.
Now I know why they pay up the final acceptance price and also fly out, it's worth it up to 12th place. They have a 50% chance of taking home their fees or better.

There's been a little increase this year on last:

First - $4,000,000 +$400,000
Second - $1,000,000 +$100,000
Third - $500,000 +$50,000
Fourth - $300,000 +$50,000
Fifth - $200,000 +$25,000
Sixth - $150,000 +$25,000
Seventh - $150,000 +$25,000
Eighth - $150,000 +$25,000
Ninth - $150,000 +$25,000
Tenth - $150,000 +$25,000
Eleventh - $150,000 +$150,000
Twelfth - $150,000 +$150,000

Per this 2014 article, it costs around $150,000 to run a European horse in the Melbourne Cup: https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2...e-melbourne-cup. That's probably where the increase and extension in the lower places is derived from. Given the make-up of the fields nowadays though, plenty of the foreign stables will still end up out of pocket and only six more square. And that's not counting any prizemoney they would have otherwise picked up were they to race in their home territory instead.

It gives me a bit more understanding regarding why some of these international topweights don't come. Last year, Order Of St George (which I still thought had a very friendly handicap of 58kg) decided to stay in Europe. He came 4th in the Qatar Prix De L'Arc De Triomphe ($285,500) and then won the Qipco British Champions Long Distance Cup ($430,000ish). He only beats that financial return if he finishes top 2 in the Melbourne Cup - and only Makybe Diva and Vinnie Roe have managed that with such a high weight since 2000.

Of course it's not just about the money...
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  #7  
Old 22nd July 2018, 10:59 PM
Chrome Prince Chrome Prince is offline
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Not that many Internationals have won the race (including foreign favourites, but excluding New Zealanders), and I think it's because the foreign jockeys, Frankie Dettori included, just don't get the pace of the Cup, yes, one still goes at the clock tower, but the early and mid pace is a beast if it's not raining.
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  #8  
Old 22nd July 2018, 11:40 PM
partypooper partypooper is offline
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[Still think that 5% to the jockey is a bit dismal, I know if my jockey won the race, I'd be quite prepared to sling him 10%.]

The Jocks would be taking home a heap more than anyone else that's for sure,

but at the same time you may be right in terms of "insurance"
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  #9  
Old 10th August 2018, 11:33 PM
walkermac walkermac is online now
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Last year's winning jockey, Corey Brown, has been booked to ride Magic Circle ($21) in the Melbourne Cup. (Ruled out by the "system").

His 2017 mount, Rekindling, looks like he won't make the race. Per owner Lloyd Williams, both Rekindling and Sir Johannes Vermeer have had setbacks and and may only make it to Australia towards the tail end of the carnival. It's still at $21 and in the third line of betting in Sportsbet's All-In Market, so either they're not taking Williams at his word or they're hoping to catch uninformed money. Johannes Vermeer is at $31.

Almandin, at 9 years old, is the next shortest Williams runner at $34.

There's a few other imports of his around that could be in with a shot but are yet to even earn a price:

Sir Edwin Landseer - looks to have snuck into the field for Saturday's VRC Member Darren Allsop Handicap over 2000m. I don't find him very appealing as yet. Only the 1 win in a 2yo Maiden over 1450m. Will want to show something in Australia.

Exemplar - was set to race in Saturdays VRC Members Handicap over 1700m but is now scratched. Underwent a 'tie forward procedure' on arrival in Australia. Finished 12L behind Rekindling in a Group 2 last May. His 2yo season looks pretty good though and his last race was for 2nd place in a 2400m Group 3. Looks the best of the bunch.

Belgravia - was going to be in the same race as above but has also been scratched. Also got beaten by Rekindling by a huge amount (21L).

Crocodile Rock ($81) and Kiliminjaro ($101) are also racing in the VRC Member Maureen O’Connell Handicap over 2500m this Saturday.
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  #10  
Old 11th August 2018, 05:15 PM
walkermac walkermac is online now
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Quote:
Originally Posted by walkermac
Sir Edwin Landseer - looks to have snuck into the field for Saturday's VRC Member Darren Allsop Handicap over 2000m. I don't find him very appealing as yet. Only the 1 win in a 2yo Maiden over 1450m. Will want to show something in Australia.

Crocodile Rock ($81) and Kiliminjaro ($101) are also racing in the VRC Member Maureen O’Connell Handicap over 2500m this Saturday.
All the Williams horses went hard early. None of them did very well.

Jaameh looked pretty decent. The target is the Bart Cummings, the winner there receiving a ballot exemption from the Melbourne Cup. Would be quite a long preparation in that case though, unless there's a freshen up in between.
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