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Old 28th May 2018, 10:21 PM
The Ocho The Ocho is offline
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Default Laying - Level Stake or Liability?

I'm trying out a laying system with the horses being in the lower priced end of the spectrum (say under $10) and are often the favourites.

I'm trying to see the difference between laying level stakes or laying to liability but I am not sure how I can get a fair comparison.

At the moment my testing is to lay for $1 level stakes meaning that when my lay bet wins (horse loses) I win say $0.95 (5% tax taken out) but I lose $1.50 for a $2.50 horse or $5 for a $6 horse if my lay bet loses.

However if laying to liability what would the liability amount be to get a fair comparison (leaving aside the $30 minimum liability for now) with just laying level stakes for $1?

For the above example if I lay to say $6 liability it will cost me $6 for every losing bet but I would win $4 for the $2.50 horse or $1.20 for the $6 horse.
I would also win $12 if a $1.50 horse loses.

I hope that makes sense.
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Old 28th May 2018, 11:21 PM
Shaun Shaun is offline
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Apart from running both laying strategies over the same set up results i am not sure, i have always preferred to lay to a payout figure specially with the lower end of the market.
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Old 29th May 2018, 11:42 AM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Level stakes when laying is actually by using a liability.

When you do your first method $1 on a $2.50 and lost $1.50 that is actually not level stakes as your loss varies. Its not level.

In my opinion I have seen people fool themselves with the variability in the returns. They think they are going well but when you convert it back to the liability method they are actually losing. Long term I have seen those people fail.

IMHO use the liability method only as you are keeping your losses the same and your profit variable (which is the same as backing with a set amount).
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Old 29th May 2018, 01:36 PM
Mark Mark is offline
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Keep records of how both go, and then you'll have to decide if you want to go with the higher cash return or the higher POT %.
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Old 29th May 2018, 04:29 PM
The Ocho The Ocho is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by UselessBettor
Level stakes when laying is actually by using a liability.

When you do your first method $1 on a $2.50 and lost $1.50 that is actually not level stakes as your loss varies. Its not level.

In my opinion I have seen people fool themselves with the variability in the returns. They think they are going well but when you convert it back to the liability method they are actually losing. Long term I have seen those people fail.

IMHO use the liability method only as you are keeping your losses the same and your profit variable (which is the same as backing with a set amount).

Thanks to everyone for your replies.

UB, I see what you mean with the two methods - maybe I have them around the wrong way. Knowing your losses are the same each time makes more sense than losing 50c one minute but $10 the next.

I suppose what I am asking is how can you compare the two methods to see which one is going better than the other? Is it a matter of averaging out the odds for the losing and/or winning bets?
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Old 30th May 2018, 07:42 AM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Ocho
I suppose what I am asking is how can you compare the two methods to see which one is going better than the other? Is it a matter of averaging out the odds for the losing and/or winning bets?


As Mark said its either Profit on turnover or just plain $'s made for comparison.
I was add drawdown to that analysis.

If you went the liability method and lost 4 times you would lose 4 units. If you lose 4 horses at $5, $10 ,$4 and $6 then you have lost 25 units using the other staking.
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