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Old 16th June 2022, 01:25 PM
evajb001 evajb001 is offline
Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 463

partypooper, on the example you provided im just trying to get my head around taking that approach.

So say game 1 is AFL game with $1.38 fav.

Game 2 is where you've got the $1.12 fav and $6.50 dog.

You've multi'd the $1.38 and $1.12 options for a $1.55 return using $100. And then you hedge out on the opponent to lock in a return of $30 roughly regardless.

But if you just placed the original $100 on the $1.38 team only, you've got a return of $38. Understandably you could lose your $100 but this would happen anyway if they lose under the other scenario.

Just checking if i've missed something here or my thinking is correct. Essentially using the multi approach you're allowing the bookie to pocket the juice thats already in the odds again instead of it being in your pocket.

EDIT: I understand that $8 gap doesn't sound like much but do it enough times and it adds up
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Old 17th June 2022, 12:21 PM
partypooper partypooper is offline
Join Date: Nov 1999
Location: Western Australia
Posts: 2,387

evajb100, yes you've got it right. I put this forward to get some brain matter
ticking over. Hopefully some ideas to prune it. As far as the prices are concerned yes it is 100% numbers game you have to pick out where it works, and how low a take out you're prepared to accept. What I meant was EVEN @1.12,s lose regardless whether it's in the first game or the 2nd.

I like the basic idea, I've had some success but concede, it could be beginners luck, if you can see any way to improve any part of it please feel free!
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Old 19th June 2022, 12:05 PM
Mark Mark is offline
Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: Qld
Posts: 1,404
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Originally Posted by Mark
I don't lay one out, I try to lay the whole field.
I have a price limit of 80 the win and 18 the place.
The liability never gets out of hand if you know what you're doing.
Here's a tip......never ever chase.

Some nice results yesterday.
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Old 31st July 2022, 09:28 AM
Shaun Shaun is offline
Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: Western Australia
Posts: 3,456

Originally Posted by Chrome Prince
Okay, firstly top three faves:
1st 32.71%
2nd 19.57%
3rd 13.75%

1st Fave:
$1-$1.50 65.68%
$1-$2 51.87%
$2-$2.50 39.02%
$2.50-$3 32.27%
$3-$3.5 27.08%
$3.50-$4 23.17%
$4-$4.50 20.21%
$4.50-$5 17.83%
$5 up 15.75%

*Based on nearly 24 years of data.

Any chance i could get this for the 2nd fav also?

What would be the place percentage for the 1st and 2nd fav, don't need a price breakdown just the average place percentage.
One Drive

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Old 1st August 2022, 03:50 PM
beton beton is offline
Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 589

Pushing the envelope I know but why stop at the second? Can we have the first 5? or at least the 3rd as well.
Good to see someone here.
"God made man in his image". He then went to great lengths to ensure that each and every person was unique. God then pondered and said "I will call these human, as very few will rise from the herd to be called individual"
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Old 7th August 2022, 02:10 PM
Mark Mark is offline
Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: Qld
Posts: 1,404

You could probably have an educated guess at the rest. Counts for nothing if you can't apply the information correctly.
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