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  #1  
Old 10th July 2005, 06:47 PM
BJ BJ is offline
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Question Who believes you can win on negative expection games?

Just curious as to peoples opinions on staking systems.

So much talk of using staking systems, but at the same time negative comments about winning on such games as roulette.

What is the purpose of a staking system?
I believe that it is to increase profits. eg instead of returning 102% with a straight bet, using a staking system to increase the return to say, 110%.
If this is possible, why not changing a 97.3% return on roulette to over 100% return?

Just looking for peoples opinions...
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  #2  
Old 10th July 2005, 07:30 PM
rabbitz rabbitz is offline
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I have had a sport odds(now centrebet) account for 3 years and every time i'd put money in it i would go for the big multi and end up losing most of it.Last week i picked up a multi when st kilda kicked a goal after the siren.i then thought right lets change the strategy so I decided to use 5% of the bank for bets and not take anything more than a double.So this week past i increased the bank 50%,which is a great result.Obviously as the bank goes up and down so does the amount wagered
cheers
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  #3  
Old 10th July 2005, 09:46 PM
Mr J Mr J is offline
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Default heh

The only way you can turn a -EV game into a +EV one is to gain an advantage. This advantage either increases the frequency of the payout or the size of the payout while the other stays the same or increases.

Eg coinflipping, and paying even money. In order to gain an advantage, you need to do one of these or both:
1) Find a method to flip better than 50% longerm
2) Get better than even money

Show me how a staking system could beat this example (and remember this is a breakeven scenario, not a -EV scenario which would be even harder).

A staking system is not an advantage in itself.
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  #4  
Old 10th July 2005, 10:27 PM
Floydyboy Floydyboy is offline
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Ive got one of those as well RABZ ....No more roll your owns now.... bummer
A coupla weeks ago I had a bit of a revalation myself I think I posted it somewhere ......Anyway it goes like this
Be Selective ,bet on favs ,I have a bottom limit 1.29 and 1.30 at betfair where I have to pay commission (which leaves me at 1.285bla bla bla ) hence the 1.29anywhere else .
Now heres the catch I keep reinvesting my winnings until Ive reached odds of 3.00 or better .
Its the same as having a multi at 3.00<
Then I revert back to 10% of my bank for my next series of bets ....Ive been experimenting a bit and in hindsight there were bets there that I shouldnt have had (winners and losers) I won 109 last month and Im 1 bet away from breaking square again thismonth after a swag of losers a coupla days ago (see tennis thread ) but I believe the key is be patient and selective and wait for the right 1.30-1.60 chance to come along they are just figures but last month my average div was 1.45......Soccers a no no as much as I enjoy betting on soccer I dont like it for this type of betting ....I am taking this seriously ...when I back something I expect it to win ...In other words Im not backing things that I think might have a chance ...Im backing things that I expect to win
Tennis is the main type of bet Im having although last weekend I backed ROOSTERS ,GEELONG,and TIGER in a 2ball in the last round of the golf .

Last edited by Floydyboy : 10th July 2005 at 10:32 PM.
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  #5  
Old 10th July 2005, 11:11 PM
mecurial mecurial is offline
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Floydy,

Why do you say that football betting is a no-no? I think that consistently you can get prices around the $1.30 - $1.50 mark which are quite good. These are usually found in the leagues other than EPL.

And be very careful about 2/3 ball in the golf! Although maybe you are more knowledgeable on the game, but I have had a few bets in recent weeks on the "name" sort of players e.g. Singh, Els, Garcia,Toms etc, when they have been up against guys I had never heard of before - And while the price is more than appetising, I have been burnt several times on this form of betting!
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  #6  
Old 11th July 2005, 07:08 AM
Floydyboy Floydyboy is offline
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How are ya Mecurial
Are you talking about lower leagues or other countries ......BURNT .......Italian Spanish Leagues are a joke for betting (as far as Im concerned )I find that the Bundesliga is consistent (or at least I seem to be able to pick winners there) ......But theres just too many draws in the soccer for my liking....Ill still be betting on the football but not in the same fashion as I mentioned above.
As far as the golf Goes ...yep I know a bit about golf .....I have played off single figures (just.....and it was probably ten years ago ) I just hack around now off 14 and enjoy it more ....sorry back to the betting .....I backed Tiger in the last round of the US open He was making a charge and I didnt the 18 stone fella he was playing Tim Herron would go toe to toe with him ...the final margin was 7 strokes or there abouts Since the beginning of last month Ive had 2 golf bets ... both on tiger in 2 balls and both won

Last edited by Floydyboy : 11th July 2005 at 07:17 AM.
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  #7  
Old 11th July 2005, 12:58 PM
BJ BJ is offline
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Question

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr J
The only way you can turn a -EV game into a +EV one is to gain an advantage. This advantage either increases the frequency of the payout or the size of the payout while the other stays the same or increases.

Eg coinflipping, and paying even money. In order to gain an advantage, you need to do one of these or both:
1) Find a method to flip better than 50% longerm
2) Get better than even money

Show me how a staking system could beat this example (and remember this is a breakeven scenario, not a -EV scenario which would be even harder).

A staking system is not an advantage in itself.


Do you use a staking system of any description?
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  #8  
Old 11th July 2005, 09:32 PM
Mr J Mr J is offline
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On a % of my bets yeh. Pretty simple really, bet more the larger your advantage, bet less when your advantage is small
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  #9  
Old 12th July 2005, 05:26 PM
BJ BJ is offline
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Wink

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr J
On a % of my bets yeh. Pretty simple really, bet more the larger your advantage, bet less when your advantage is small


But basically you don't have an advantage so you don't bet?
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  #10  
Old 27th July 2005, 10:23 PM
thefan thefan is offline
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Im making a sure bet that every gambler out there has thought of a stacking system. It works but eventually it will crumble on you.But then again its probally better than gambling with no game plan. Only time will tell.If not greed or not following your system will get the better of you. To be successful you first need discipline and a reality check.
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