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  #61  
Old 26th October 2020, 10:52 PM
walkermac walkermac is offline
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Couldn't help myself:


Who has the lucky number 17?




Repeat thread readers (firstly: apologies for how lame it's been this year) would know about the number 17 factor. About one quarter of Cup runners share this feature BUT 10 of the last 12 winners had it. (Last year's didn't; the 2 races where it failed over that period were also the 2 slowest - no coincidence). I am, of course, talking about each runner's Conduit Mare Stamina figure. Way too complicated to go into just what that is here; if you're interested seek the "Is Dosage bunkum?" thread.

The lucky number 17 runners after third acceptances are:
AVILIUS7
SURPRISE BABY16
MIAMI BOUND20
STEEL PRINCE22
ASHRUN29
SCHABAU40

So it looks like four will make the final field, unless there are any scratchings or Hotham winners among them. Surprise Baby and Schabau are the only ones who are also on the top two rungs of 'the system' ladder currently. Can we call Surprise Baby the winner yet?
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  #62  
Old Yesterday, 08:30 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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I was going to ask about the dosage when the final field was declared. Thanks for providing it earlier. Based on those with it:

AVILIUS - Not enough of the other factors to be considered a contender.
SURPRISE BABY - This stat brings this horse back into my list of contenders.
MIAMI BOUND - A total of 7 might have this one just edge in my selections given the dosage.
STEEL PRINCE - same as Miami bound. It may or may not get into my selection list after only scoring 7 in the total column.
ASHRUN- If it makes the 24 its in my list of contenders.
SCHABAU-If it makes the 24 its in my list of contenders.

Really looking forward to the final 24 and seeing the table of points.

I think the winning horse will have a score of 8 or higher. But I am willing to stretch it down to 7 if there are compelling reasons. Half the field currently has at least a score of 7 or higher if I counted right.
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  #63  
Old Today, 08:59 AM
walkermac walkermac is offline
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Cup nominees racing today:

Bendigo - Race 7 - 4:00PM Apiam Bendigo Cup (2400 METRES)

ZEBROWSKI (NZ) 25$5.50
HAKY (IRE) 37$26
PONDUS (GB) 39$5
SARACEN KNIGHT (IRE) 43=$6.50

If Zebrowski wins, the prizemoney should get him into 23rd in the Order of Entry. The rest will need to get at least a 1.5kg penalty to get into the field. They're all nominated for the Hotham and I had anticipated them going there instead (like Lord Belvedere and Azuro have). Scratchings closed a couple of hours ago, so it looks like they may have given up on the Melbourne Cup. I guess it only cost them $3k for their third declaration...
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