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  #1  
Old 16th March 2018, 05:17 PM
partypooper partypooper is offline
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Default Question for the data base guys

Just re-looking at an old system that once gave me a couple of monster wins,

basically were looking at any horse that wins 2 races in a row, we back em 1 unit on each of it's next 3 races, plus we have a 1 unit all up i.e. if it wins it's 3rd race; all of the returns are placed on its next race etc etc. (that's a seperate bet to the 3 individual bets)

Just wondering if anyone can help out with the historical data? I suppose what we need is how did all horses with form 11??? and how many hit the 5 timer.

What is strange about this one is some of the prices are surprising.
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  #2  
Old 18th March 2018, 12:32 AM
partypooper partypooper is offline
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Well! its fair enough if no one wants to share the data that "they" have paid for ......but it makes it interesting that they don't (if you see what I mean?)
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  #3  
Old 18th March 2018, 12:52 AM
Chrome Prince Chrome Prince is offline
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Hey Party,
What you're asking for is really something that needs more fine tuning than just two or three wins in a row, that's probably why people haven't responded.
A horse could have won three in a row at Healesville and then be running at Flemington. Class would have to be factored into the equation. It could even be that a horse won a maiden, class 1 and class 2 and is now running in a Group One. If you filter out the duds, you might be onto something.
Of course you'll get the occasional huge dividend winner, but go broke waiting for the next one.
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  #4  
Old 18th March 2018, 12:57 AM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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partypooper,

I must have missed this post. I can test it later. Bit late right now to write it up and test.

Won't take too long. If I don't respond in the next day just remind me to do it.
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  #5  
Old 18th March 2018, 01:10 AM
partypooper partypooper is offline
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Thats great guys, look forward to any comments but just to emphasise today there
is one live one on the 4th win running on to the 5th leg ( and that just by pure chance?) will post details tomorrow, as the Charnonay is kicking in right now, hee hee!)
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  #6  
Old 18th March 2018, 01:31 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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OK ran the system:

Came up with 20631 selections.
Loss of 1609 units (7.8% LOT)
Strike rate was 22%.

This is using Betfair SP prices after commission of 6.5% has been applied.
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  #7  
Old 18th March 2018, 02:02 PM
partypooper partypooper is offline
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Chrome, yes you are right, I'm not really savvy when it comes to Data etc. my records are quite basic and longhand. In regards to class etc. yes I think thats maybe why some of the prices are much better than you would expect i.e. an unexpected improver in many cases.

UB, thanks for that, actually considering that is overall its not too bad, I think maybe any profit would be from the few that hit the 5 in a row, sometimes with much better prices than is expected. help much appreciated.
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  #8  
Old 19th March 2018, 11:09 AM
Chrome Prince Chrome Prince is offline
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In general, forgetting the likes of Black Caviar and Winx, you'll find that horses that win two or three in a row the odds tend to lengthen the further wins they have. Champions don't.
If you followed Black Caviar, Winx, Lonhro etc. you'd have an amazing Profit On Turnover, even though the odds are as short as can be.
I've done this on sports such as Lewis Hamilton, Serena Williams, Novak Djokavic, Michael Schumacher, Roger Federer etc.
You just need to know who is injured or look for changes to F1 cars.
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  #9  
Old 20th March 2018, 12:37 AM
partypooper partypooper is offline
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Thanks Chrome and UB, I guess the real question that need answered is how did 2 wins in a row fare with an all up on the next 3 runs, eg. we are looking for 5 wins in a row! not really looking at the champions as an all up of $1.20x $1.10 x $1.15 is not really cutting the mustard!!
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