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  #151  
Old 8th November 2017, 10:56 AM
partypooper partypooper is offline
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Hats off to aferw, my 3 are still running, actually got 1,2,3, but of course in the wrong combination as usual. Had the 2nd & 3rd for 1st 2nd and 3rd, and the winner for 3rd Grrrr!
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  #152  
Old 8th November 2017, 12:53 PM
Mark Mark is offline
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Admittedly I don't watch the news but it's hard to miss the blanket coverage of the cup. To my knowledge nobody has said that Joseph O'Brien is the first person to ride the winner of the English Derby (twice) and train the winner of the Melbourne Cup. An extraordinary feat and he's only 24.
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  #153  
Old 8th November 2017, 03:36 PM
walkermac walkermac is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by evajb001
The final result also somewhat shows the importance of speed mapping. A lot of the leader types drawn out wide and had to do significant work to get to the front and were under pressure early in the straight whilst the midfield runners with superior barriers (the top 4 placings) had it much easier and petrol in the tank for the straight
The shortest distance run by any competitor was 3230m. This was achieved by the winner and - to distinctly less effect - Humidor





















Rekindling b4-0.4L+0m
Johannes Vermeer b30.4L+2m
Max Dynamite b22.9L+1m
Big Duke b55.65L+9m
Nakeeta b196.4L+9m
Thomas Hobson b208.65L+13m
Tiberian b229.15L+21m
Libran b79.65L+7m
Marmelo b169.75L+8m
Wicklow Brave b810.5L+1m
Red Cardinal b2311.25L+18m
Almandin b1411.45L+22m
Cismontane b1712.2L+2m
Amelie's Star b1012.95L+20m
Boom Time b913.95L+1m
Wall of Fire b1515.45L+15m
Single Gaze b1115.85L+24m
Us Army Ranger b2116.15L+29m
Humidor b1316.65L+0m
Hartnell b1228.65L+11m
Ventura Storm b630.15L+8m
Bondi Beach b131.4L+0m
Gallante b1899.9L+16m
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  #154  
Old 8th November 2017, 04:38 PM
evajb001 evajb001 is offline
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Hindsight is a lovely thing but here is the speed map from my spreadsheet:



Given the stat I think walkermac referenced that the vast majority of Melb Cup winners are in the top 10 at the turn, you'd think most horses want to get into a solid position in the front half of the field. My Spreadsheet identified 14 horses that would likely be pushing forward (total of horses inside the purple and red rectangles). Given this likelihood of forward pressure it certainly does no favors to those pushing forward from the outside. I don't have the replay infront of me but know Cismontane and Marmelo settled in the first 4 (cismontane leading and marmelo 4th 1 out 1 back). As you can see from the distance covered stats they didnt necessarily cover a huge amount of more ground however in all likelihood they expended a pretty significant amount of energy to cross from so wide and get to the rail.

In hindsight (which is a lovely thing) I probably should've put more significance on the fact that horses in that red zone would likely either be stuck 3 wide, need to come from the back or use considerable energy to push forward. Conversely the purple zone could use less energy whilst still pushing forward and likely settle midfield or forward of midfield without too much effort (when compared to the red zone).

I think you'd find if Rekindling had Marmelo's barrier and vice versa we could've seen a better showing from Marmelo but thats the nature of the race and something to consider or give more significance to next year depending on how the race maps.

EDIT: Just an additional note to the above, had there been less or no horses in that purple zone then Marmelo and co on the outside likely would've used less energy and been more likely to stay on in the straight. So its not necessarily a bad thing to have to push forward from wide, its just a lot harder when you have that early speed pressure from multiple horses inside of you as well.

Last edited by evajb001 : 8th November 2017 at 04:41 PM.
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  #155  
Old 8th November 2017, 07:34 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by walkermac
The shortest distance run by any competitor was 3230m. This was achieved by the winner and - to distinctly less effect - Humidor


That damn 2 meters for Johannes was the difference between winning and coming a close second.
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  #156  
Old 8th November 2017, 07:38 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by evajb001
Hindsight is a lovely thing but here is the speed map from my spreadsheet:


I guess we all know the effects of this but hindsight is a wonderful thing. This thread could hold many clues if we review it again next Melb Cup.
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