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  #41  
Old 19th September 2017, 07:18 PM
walkermac walkermac is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by evajb001
Anyone taken a look at the long range market and narrowed it down using the typical elimination rules (i.e. no 7yo's or older or 3yo's, no runners that have ran in the cup before without placing, etc etc etc)
I had a mind to do that back when I started the thread but forgot, to be honest. It's still a bit early as many of the systems I'm aware of include placegetters in races yet to be won. ...and I think the age rule might not suit this edition too well: Almandin is a northern hemisphere 8 year old but only has 14 career starts. I don't imagine there'd be too many like him in the past....
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  #42  
Old 20th September 2017, 05:23 AM
walkermac walkermac is offline
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Here's the Order of Entry that correctly lists those who have passed the first ballot clause (looks like Darabad has qualified already) as well as the prizemoney entrants have won in eligible races.

https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws...-at-18-sept.pdf
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  #43  
Old 21st September 2017, 12:04 PM
walkermac walkermac is offline
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Cup Watch

It looks like the following nominated horses are running this weekend (note that I might have missed a couple, I just searched the likeliest fields in the likeliest races).


(times are local)

Randwick R2 12:50pm
Colin Stephen Quality Group 3 (2400m)
(placegetters pass first ballot clause; prizemoney is added to total)
Broadside
Dee I Cee*
Auvray
Admiral Jello
Darabad
(* - yet to pass first ballot clause)


Caulfield R3 1:05pm
Lojac Civil Handicap (1800m)
(can earn a weight penalty, will not pass first ballot clause, prizemoney doesn't count)
Darabad
Anaheim*


Randwick R4 2:00pm
Ranvet handicap (2000m)
(can earn a weight penalty, will not pass first ballot clause, prizemoney doesn't count)
Alward*
Up 'n' Rolling*
Roman Son*


Hastings R9 4:25pm
Windsor Park Plate Group 1 (1600m)
(does them no good in Melbourne Cup qualification)
Gingernuts
Rock On
Charles Road*
Chance To Dance


Randwick R5 2:35pm
Schweppes Shannon Stakes (1500m)
(does them no good in Melbourne Cup qualification)
Imposing Lass*


Morphettville Parks R4 2:36pm
The Alberton Hotel Handicap (2400m)
(can earn a weight penalty, will not pass first ballot clause, prizemoney doesn't count)
Kellstorm*


Caulfield R7 3:35pm
Bendigo Bank East Malvern MRC Foundation Cup Group 3 (2000m)
(can earn a weight penalty, will not pass first ballot clause, prizemoney doesn't count)
(winner earns a Caulfield Cup exemption)

Sir Isaac Newton
Tally
Big Duke
Gallante
Stampede*
Boom Time*
Harlem
Amelie's Star*
Abbey Marie*
Harlow Gold
Vengeur Masque
Samovare*
Settler's Stone*
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  #44  
Old 22nd September 2017, 11:59 AM
walkermac walkermac is offline
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Also in action this weekend:

Albert - 57kg topweight in the Group 2 SANKEI SHO ALL COMERS at Nakayama. First place gets $AUD750k. 2200m at 15:45 on Sunday (4:45pm AEST).

Dylan Mouth - Race 3 at Newbury 14:15 23rd September. Group 3 Dubai Duty Free Legacy Cup Stakes. 58.5kg over 2212m. (11:15pm AEST)

Last edited by walkermac : 22nd September 2017 at 12:02 PM.
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  #45  
Old 22nd September 2017, 08:04 PM
walkermac walkermac is offline
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Racing Victoria seem to be making a habit of changing the rules very late in the piece. Following their decision not to penalise any horses >= 56kg in the Caulfield Cup for their performance there, we now won't necessarily have a topweight of 57kg or greater in the Melbourne Cup!

As sensible as the move is, I personally can't believe how unprofessional they are, announcing the change after entries have closed and only just a few weeks out from the race. They know there are 12 months in the year, right?

The new rule is: 58kg topweight at release of weights and then....weights won't change in the case of scratchings. Last year all weights went up 1kg; under the new rule that would not have occured. Their contention is that "weight means more to horses at the top of the scale than the bottom".

Full story: https://rv.racing.com/news/2017-09-...-melbourne-cups
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  #46  
Old 23rd September 2017, 05:57 AM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by walkermac
Racing Victoria seem to be making a habit of changing the rules very late in the piece. Following their decision not to penalise any horses >= 56kg in the Caulfield Cup for their performance there, we now won't necessarily have a topweight of 57kg or greater in the Melbourne Cup!

As sensible as the move is, I personally can't believe how unprofessional they are, announcing the change after entries have closed and only just a few weeks out from the race. They know there are 12 months in the year, right?

The new rule is: 58kg topweight at release of weights and then....weights won't change in the case of scratchings. Last year all weights went up 1kg; under the new rule that would not have occured. Their contention is that "weight means more to horses at the top of the scale than the bottom".

Full story: https://rv.racing.com/news/2017-09-...-melbourne-cups



Yes, very unprofessional. Make the rules for the year and stick with them. If you want to change the rules then do it for the next year. Its unfair to horses which have not entered (especially overseas horses) based on the original rules.
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  #47  
Old 23rd September 2017, 06:06 AM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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THis is a weird comment to make :

Quote:
“Last year’s Melbourne Cup, where the weights were raised 1kg at final acceptances, is a case in point. It could be argued that the performance of the default topweights, Big Orange and Our Ivanhowe, was impacted more over 3200m than those lower in the weights such as the winner Almandin who had his weight lifted from 51kg to 52kg.”



A rise from 56 to 57 kgs is a percentage increase which is less than 51kgs to 52 kgs. There is no reason a 1kg raise a 56kg would be worse then a 51-52 kg rise.

Not to mention before the race the lower weighted horses had a 5/51 = 11.7% weight advantage and after the increase they only had a 5/52 = 9.6% advantage.
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  #48  
Old 23rd September 2017, 04:15 PM
walkermac walkermac is offline
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I figured that some of the horses nominated for the Cup would be travelling alright in the lead-up. ....still somehow managed to bet around them and pick the wrong ones for the Tipping Comp!


Randwick R2 12:50pm
Colin Stephen Quality Group 3 (2400m)
Auvray - 1st 0.1L @ $3.20
Admiral Jello - 2nd 0.1L $4 (protested against 1st; dismissed)
Broadside - 3rd 0.3L
Dee I Cee - 4th 6.4L
Darabad - 5th 10.7L


Caulfield R3 1:05pm
Lojac Civil Handicap (1800m)
Darabad
Anaheim - 1st 0.5L @ $8.10


Randwick R4 2:00pm
Ranvet handicap (2000m)
Alward - 1st 0.8L @ $4.40
Up 'n' Rolling - 2nd 0.8L
Roman Son - 6th 5.5L


Hastings R9 4:25pm
Windsor Park Plate Group 1 (1600m)
Gingernuts - 1st 0.2L @ $2.90
Rock On
Charles Road
Chance To Dance



Randwick R5 2:35pm
Schweppes Shannon Stakes (1500m)
Imposing Lass - 3rd 2.8L


Morphettville Parks R4 2:36pm
The Alberton Hotel Handicap (2400m)
Kellstorm - 6th lots


Caulfield R7 3:35pm
Bendigo Bank East Malvern MRC Foundation Cup Group 3 (2000m)
Harlem - 1st 3.25L @ $16.00
Samovare - 2nd 3.25L
Stampede - 3rd 3.35L
Amelie's Star - 4th 4.6L
Abbey Marie - 5th 4.9L
Sir Isaac Newton - 6th 5.65L
Tally - 7th 5.85L
Harlow Gold - 8th 6.05L
Vengeur Masque - 9th 6.15L
Big Duke - 10th 6.45L
Settler's Stone - 14th 8.4L
Gallante - 15th 18.4L
Boom Time
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  #49  
Old Yesterday, 10:25 PM
walkermac walkermac is offline
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The foreign raiders running this past weekend weren't as hot as the local contenders:

Albert
Group 2 SANKEI SHO ALL COMERS at Nakayama
4th in betting at $6.40. Finished in 7th place in the 2200m race, 0.5s from and approximately 3L behind the winner. Can't find vision. The distance is right in his wheelhouse, but his first up record is only middling. His best win percentage is at 4th up and beyond (6 wins from 9 races). It doesn't look like he'll get that kind of campaign.

Dylan Mouth
Group 3 Dubai Duty Free Legacy Cup Stakes
Opened at 8/1 and drifted slightly to 10/1. Finished 10th, about 7L back in this 2212m race. According to the race comment he was held up at the rear and was never a factor. Secret Number was 3rd in this race (21st in last year's Melbourne Cup).
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  #50  
Old Today, 12:39 PM
walkermac walkermac is offline
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Harlem has been given a 0.5kg penalty for both the Caulfield and Melbourne Cups, following his win in the Naturalism Stakes last Saturday.

In other news, St Michel is not coming after being found to be lame and not fit to enter quarantine.

Last edited by walkermac : Today at 12:44 PM.
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