Hello Punters,

You might think this guy is crazy - $100 on the Roosters to win the wooden spoon. But, in reality he has created a potential market that he cannot lose in.

Goes like this:
- Punter puts $100 on outside chance at $501, with potential to earn $50K profit.
- Rumour starts (thanks TAB). Punters jump on.
- Bookmakers have no chance but to shorten the odds as more punters jump on. We've seen betting suspended, open at $51, and then drop to $15. Even one bet of $400 was rejected at $51.

OK, so the original punter that started all this has a position in the Roosters taking the spoon. But very unlikley. This position is worth $50K to win, $100 to lose.

Now what? He heads over to a betting exchange and starts laying the Roosters for the wooden spoon. Let's say he gets average odds of $201 at the exchange. He lays $200 at $201.

There are now two scenarios.
1. Roosters don't take the wooden spoon. Punter loses $100 bet on Roosters to take spoon, but gets to keep the $200 he lays at the exchange.
PROFIT = $100 (excluding commissions)

2. Roosters take the wooden spoon.
Punter has to pay out $40K that he laid at the exchange. But receives $50K from the earlier bet he made.
PROFIT = $10K

Either way is a win. This is an extreme example. If he really had inside information, then he wouldn't sacrifice his $50K winnings to protect his $100 loss. Because here it is costing him $40K to stop him from losing $100, and he still needs to have the $40K sitting around to make the lay.

A bit silly. However, if he was just trying to create a market out of nothing, then well done!

Like I said, this is an extreme example, and there are better ways to make $100 from $40K. But an interesting idea.

On the other side, the bookies have potentially created a lot of interest in betting on a such a slim chance that they really can't loose... even bringing it down the terrible odds of $15... As per usual they win! ;P