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  #1  
Old 18th December 2017, 05:02 PM
partypooper partypooper is offline
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Default An old Dog system that CAN'T lose

Just thought post this for some comment!

OK There are 8 runners max in a dog race, there are 10-12 races (usually) so at least one trap has to win at least twice right?

So we sit out race 1, Trap 2 wins,
We back trap 2 in the next race to win $100, say it's $5 so we stake $25, it gets beat Trap 4 wins,

Race 3 , we dutch traps 2 & 4 to win $125 they are showing $3.70 +$9.3 so we stake $54 on T2 and $22 on T4, miss out again, Trap 5 wins,

Race 4, We dutch T2,T4,T5 to win $201, (our losses so far +$100) prices are$5, $8, $2.70, so we stake, $132 $82, $244, trap 5 wins
we collect $658.8 Win $100 (our target)

If it hadn't won we just carry on including all trap numbers that have won so far, worst case you have to be on the winner in race 9. As the heading says it cannot lose.

So why aren't I sitting in Bermuda on a deck chair ahem, if you got to race 9
Dutching 8 Dogs I think there might be a slight problem getting the bets on ey? most days/venues you have the winner after 2 or 3 races......... but!

Gets the old grey matter shuffling around though doesn't it?
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  #2  
Old 18th December 2017, 05:36 PM
darkydog2002 darkydog2002 is offline
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Hi Party,

A few years ago in PPM they had a full article on beating the Dogs along similar lines.

It was a bit complicated for me to digest then.

Cheers.
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  #3  
Old 18th December 2017, 09:52 PM
Mark Mark is offline
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[QUOTE=partypooper]OK There are 8 runners max in a dog race, there are 10-12 races (usually) so at least one trap has to win at least twice right?QUOTE]

No. Didn't bother reading any further.
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  #4  
Old 18th December 2017, 11:13 PM
partypooper partypooper is offline
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G'day Mark, well I certainly respect your input Mark (as you know) and whilst this was a bit of tongue in cheek again of course, it's a bit like the double up after every loser only backing evens or above, yes it is infallible in the sense that sooner or later you have to hit a winner which could be at evens , meaning you have invested possibly millions to win a $.

This one is not quite as daft as that, but my point was merely that if the first 8 races were won by traps 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8, (not necessarily in that order) then you have to nab the winner in race 9 (dutching traps 1-8) whether you could possibly get set and how many $ it would take to do it is another question altogether. It would be very rare though to get to race 9.

Lastly, I don't "invest" in dogs.
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  #5  
Old 23rd December 2017, 10:09 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by partypooper
This one is not quite as daft as that, but my point was merely that if the first 8 races were won by traps 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8, (not necessarily in that order) then you have to nab the winner in race 9 (dutching traps 1-8) whether you could possibly get set and how many $ it would take to do it is another question altogether. It would be very rare though to get to race 9.

Lastly, I don't "invest" in dogs.


Party,

I read this and thought wow what a good idea and then started to play with it a bit. I then realised the devil is in the detail.

The problem is you can't back them to recover your stake once you get past around race 6. The problem being the edge you receive is offset by the market percentage so eventually you can't get the money on to make it back.

For example. Lets say you get to race 7 and boxes 1-6 have won previously. If the two long shots are in boxes 7 and 8 then your betting into a market where you can't recover your stake.

I hope that makes sense but if you have done this over a few hundred races you will see what I mean.

Still its thought provoking and could be the basis for some type of system. What I suspect if you could wait out the first 3 races and only do it where a different box has won races 1-3 first.
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  #6  
Old 24th December 2017, 12:24 AM
partypooper partypooper is offline
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UB, well of course UB, but the basic idea works well within race 6, BUT even more perplexing is that you have to account for scratchings uggggh! like say you have a field of 1-10 and Traps 3 &6 are scratched then you have to account for the REAL field is as follows: Traps 1-8 is really 1,2,4,5, 7,8, 9,10

do you get that ? as it's really complicated? and believe me that's exactly WHY they did it!
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  #7  
Old 24th December 2017, 04:57 AM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by partypooper
UB, well of course UB, but the basic idea works well within race 6, BUT even more perplexing is that you have to account for scratchings uggggh! like say you have a field of 1-10 and Traps 3 &6 are scratched then you have to account for the REAL field is as follows: Traps 1-8 is really 1,2,4,5, 7,8, 9,10

do you get that ? as it's really complicated? and believe me that's exactly WHY they did it!


Yes I know the dogs 9 and 10 are reserves. They are given a trap/box number though so you just substitute it instead of their number.

For example if dog 3 is scratched and 9 is in then it will run from trap 3. If it does win then you will include number 3 for future races (not number 9)
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  #8  
Old 25th December 2017, 08:01 PM
Chrome Prince Chrome Prince is offline
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And what do you do when you're at about race 5 and there's a $1.20 favourite?
Also I've seen meetings where Traps have not won again.
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  #9  
Old 26th December 2017, 05:22 PM
partypooper partypooper is offline
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Yes there's a few ifs of course, but using the basic concept there may be something in it, you know only bet if you can set to?% etc etc. Another consideration could be when a trap number wins twice it often wins 3 times, eg. today so far, Ipswich R1-8, R3-8, R6-8.......Gawler R1-1, R4-1, R6-1 food for thought?

Last edited by partypooper : 26th December 2017 at 05:24 PM.
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  #10  
Old 27th December 2017, 12:38 PM
partypooper partypooper is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chrome Prince
And what do you do when you're at about race 5 and there's a $1.20 favourite?
Also I've seen meetings where Traps have not won again.


It could only happen if there were 8 races or less as long as you are substituting and reserve dogs running to the trap that they are running from as in UB's example, i.e. even if the first 8 races are won by traps 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8 (in any order) then race 9 has to have the winner from traps 1-8, whether we can exploit that fact to make any money is a different matter.
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