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  #31  
Old 24th May 2014, 04:20 PM
Pat123 Pat123 is offline
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All I used to do with unibet 2nd/3rd was back the fav and lay it off on betfair at the closest lay price i could get. It worked a good number of times. At worst i'd lose a couple of dollars due to the price diff on betfair but it was well worth it. I remember Melb Cup last year when Tom W was offering money back to 5th place. I did this along with unibet and another bookmaker and ended up making $400 risk free - it was a fluke though as mu horse came 4th - this was the best possible outcome.
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  #32  
Old 24th May 2014, 04:36 PM
Chrome Prince Chrome Prince is offline
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If it runs unplaced?
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  #33  
Old 24th May 2014, 04:48 PM
Pat123 Pat123 is offline
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Then I end up even +/- a few dollars, depending on the back/lay prices I took. Am I right in assuming everyone here doesn't do this? It's free money lol.
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  #34  
Old 24th May 2014, 04:50 PM
partypooper partypooper is offline
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Yeah I can't get past: OK if it wins, OK unplaced (as layed to win & place) but end up with a liabilty if it runs 2nd or 3rd) could be just my brain not working properly?
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  #35  
Old 24th May 2014, 05:02 PM
Pat123 Pat123 is offline
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It's not hard to work out.

I backed the fav on unibet or the 2nd fav then laid the horse off on betfair for the closest price i could get, then just sit back and wait. It comes 1st - you end up about even, same for 4th or worse. 2nd or 3rd and you're in the money (as you get a refund through unibet, but still win the lay on betfair). It's as simple as that.
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  #36  
Old 24th May 2014, 05:13 PM
stugots stugots is offline
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sweet
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  #37  
Old 24th May 2014, 05:52 PM
partypooper partypooper is offline
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working example,

last night Spirit of boom $4.60 with a certain mob who were offering the 2nd 3rd deal. BF lay price was $5.90 (at that stage)

So $100 win on SOB
now lay it (what amount?) but if we lay it $100 @$5.90

This is how we stand:

If it wins = lose $490-$360 = $130 loss
If it runs 2nd or 3rd yes we win $100 less commission say $94 Profit
If it loses altogether , we lose $100 but win $94 so $6 loss

So doing it this way you're risking a loss of $130 for a possible gain of $94, which equates to having a $130 bet on a $1.40c favourite.

Having said all that I still feel there is a way to cover all and still make a small profit no matter what , but at a loss as to how to do maths. ?.... anyone?
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  #38  
Old 24th May 2014, 05:59 PM
Pat123 Pat123 is offline
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Why would you even be considering that? The back and lay prices are too far apart and it's too far out from the race.
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  #39  
Old 24th May 2014, 06:55 PM
partypooper partypooper is offline
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PAT123, we're on the same side, I would not consider doing that , and that's what I find when they are offering money back 2nd & 3rd, their price for the fav. is ridiculously low. IF you can get close yes a different proposition, but so far I haven't been able to make it work, apart from today when as I said I dropped a clanger but scrambled out of it reducing my liability, I was left in a position almost break even but a profit if it won; and it did I re-backed it @ $5.50 so saved the bacon!

PS. I like to get set Friday night if I can, sure I could do better (usually) if I really concentrated but if I'm locked in for a profit, I prefer that, then not sat in front of the comp like a stunned Mullet!

Last edited by partypooper : 24th May 2014 at 06:58 PM.
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  #40  
Old 24th May 2014, 09:18 PM
garyf garyf is offline
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[QUOTE=partypooper]

last night Spirit of boom $4.60 with a certain mob who were offering the 2nd 3rd deal. BF lay price was $5.90

Hi P.P.

Was that certain mob the first one top left in green,
Where the analyst picked the winner?
I may be wrong.

http://www.racenet.com.au/breeding/...kies_240514.pdf

Cheers.
Garyf.
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