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  #1  
Old 4th February 2018, 12:54 PM
Lord Greystoke Lord Greystoke is offline
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Default Interesting read if you think the past can predict the future ..

Maybe it can't? That's ok. There is another way.

Something rings a bell or two in here when it comes to 'our game' I'm thinking. Enjoy.

A way out of the maze

LG
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  #2  
Old 4th February 2018, 07:03 PM
darkydog2002 darkydog2002 is offline
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My belief is that Horse Racing is basically "Random Chance"

One can never predict what will go on in a race when their racing.

Checks , Blocks , Wide Running , skull duggery etc the list goes on.

When the chips are down its down to how lucky one is or isn,t

To make any meaningful money one also has to have a very large bank in the vicinity of $200 - $300 thousand as a bare minimum.

One has to ask the question that if one had such a bank why would they risk it on Random Chance and how lucky one is or isn,t.

Cheers.
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  #3  
Old 4th February 2018, 07:12 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by darkydog2002
My belief is that Horse Racing is basically "Random Chance"

One can never predict what will go on in a race when their racing.

Checks , Blocks , Wide Running , skull duggery etc the list goes on.

When the chips are down its down to how lucky one is or isn,t

To make any meaningful money one also has to have a very large bank in the vicinity of $200 - $300 thousand as a bare minimum.

One has to ask the question that if one had such a bank why would they risk it on Random Chance and how lucky one is or isn,t.

Cheers.



I'll refer to darkys post first then go to the original article in another post.

I don't think its purely chance otherwise the odds would all be the same value like lottery.

I do agree to make any meaningful amount of money you need to have a large bank. Making 10% on $100 = $10. Making 10% on 100K means 10K. You should be aiming for higher though and around 25% -50% returns on a punting bank.

Which brings me right into darkys comment on why anyone would put a large amount of money into punting. Its because the returns can be exceptional for minimal risk when compared to other forms of investing. My lowest return in the last few years has been 35%. When you are compounding at around 50% gains you can quickly build a bank from nothing. My maximum drawdowns are usually in the 4%-5% range at worst. They are usually around 1%-2% on any random drawdown. I know of no other asset class with a return of 30+% with a drawdown of 5%.
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  #4  
Old 4th February 2018, 07:24 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lord Greystoke
Maybe it can't? That's ok. There is another way.

Something rings a bell or two in here when it comes to 'our game' I'm thinking. Enjoy.

A way out of the maze

LG


Wow what a read. I had to reread a lot of it again as it was very heavy reading.

The main points (at the boittom of the article) :

The First point : "I think that risk balancing strategies make a ton of sense in a chaotic system".

I kind of agree. In punting you can do this by betting on different countries, or different sports. Its all about diversification. You need to have systems that back long shots and odds on.
But a lot of people will also tell you specalisation is important and that can be a very sound strategy as well. If you know more about soething then others you will generally make a profit. Warren Buffet is someone who specialises rather then goes for diversification.

The second point: "instead of seeking to maximize returns, we seek to minimize our maximum regret".

This is my Number 1 motto when it comes to punting. I don't want a large drawdown and I make sure that never happens. Don't lose then you have no maximum regret. And if you do lose make sure you can recover fro it quickly enough.

The third point: "Using computers in an anthropomorphic way, where we treat them like a smarter, faster human, set loose in a vast field of historical data to search for patterns and algorithms Ö itís a snipe hunt."

To do forward thinking you are going to be using the past regardless. It can't make stuff up. I just couldn't get his view on this one. Computers are built to search for patterns and patterns are what are useful in predicting the future. I don't see what he is trying to express. Anyone care to elaborate ?

The Fourth Point : "we need to accept that weíre never going to fully understand the reality of a chaotic system, but that itís never been more important to try".

Well thats just saying its not all in vain and we need to try and be better at it. That is just human nature and using systems help to get around the greed/fear that humans use to make 99% of their decisions.

I also like this:

The Answer, and thatís the practical definition of totalitarian thought. Weíre hard-wired to want the all-encompassing algorithm, which is why itís so difficult to resist.

Yes exactly right. Since I have been handicaping I can see there is no one answer to creating a system that will do the picks for me. ITs too chaotic in the form. Its hard to read, its judgement calls and its constant comparison to situations in the race and to things I have seen in the past. I run the races in my head hundreds of times before finding the selections to back. Sort of a monte carlo simulation running continuously and as I watch the results I add those results into my replays with more information.

Yet at the same time I have found "The Answer" hundreds of times with my systems and I like to sue them to make money while I sleep.




It was a great read but probably way too heavy for most in this forum or even 99% of most investors and humans
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  #5  
Old 5th February 2018, 12:00 AM
Lord Greystoke Lord Greystoke is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by UselessBettor
Wow what a read. I had to reread a lot of it again as it was very heavy reading.

It was a great read but probably way too heavy for most in this forum or even 99% of most investors and humans


Which was precisely why I needed you to read it. Thank you UB.

Cheers LG
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  #6  
Old 5th February 2018, 10:25 AM
Mark Mark is offline
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Need a large bank ?.... rubbish.
Random chance ?....rubbish.
Luck ?.....rubbish.

Mathematical nous and quick thinking will see you through.

Started on BF with $3000 around 15 years ago and have made a living from it ever since.
As for predicting the future, I can guarantee that I will make a profit this month, next month, this year, etc etc etc.

Last edited by Mark : 5th February 2018 at 10:28 AM.
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  #7  
Old 5th February 2018, 11:45 AM
darkydog2002 darkydog2002 is offline
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Ah Mark,

I agree .


There does seem to be a lot of fantasy rubbish posted here
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  #8  
Old 5th February 2018, 01:37 PM
partypooper partypooper is offline
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Mark, difference is a numbers (%) bookie V opinion bookie
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  #9  
Old 5th February 2018, 01:47 PM
Thenewguy Thenewguy is offline
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Hey Mark, are you a mechanical systems guy or a form ratings type. From memory your a layer rather than backer.
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  #10  
Old 5th February 2018, 04:48 PM
Puntz Puntz is offline
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Past results and form numbers, info, live odds, etc etc, one word sums it up for me is ,Potential.
on the philosophical , nothing is a certainty.
So, Potential and Nothing is a Certainty has kept me afloat...
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