Smartgambler
Pro-Punter

Go Back   OZmium Sports Betting and Horse Racing Forums > Public Forums > General Topics
User Name
Password
Register FAQ Search Today's Posts Mark all topics as read

To advertise on these
forums, e-mail us.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
  #31  
Old 1st January 2018, 08:51 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 3,344
Default

Results:
Week 1: $1770 Profit
Day 8: $2460 Profit
Day 9: $1570 Profit
Day 10: $1240 Profit

Total Profit : $7040

Started the year with another winning day. Really happy with the progress and the results are mind blowing.

The work I put in though is a lot more than most people would do. Its basically another full time job with 5-8 hours being required to go through the form. Its mentally tiring work but the results speak for themselves.

Who knows though maybe I have just been lucky as its only 10 days effort. There is always the chance tomorrow could be a losing day.
Reply With Quote
  #32  
Old 1st January 2018, 10:09 PM
Thenewguy Thenewguy is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2014
Posts: 98
Default

Very impressive results UB. If you can maintain this level of success, then the time it takes is well worth it.

Youíve inspired me to have a crack at handicapping. Iíve always thought it was a poor use of my time. I will use your info as a starting point and see what transpires.
Reply With Quote
  #33  
Old 2nd January 2018, 12:10 AM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 3,344
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Thenewguy
Very impressive results UB. If you can maintain this level of success, then the time it takes is well worth it.

Youíve inspired me to have a crack at handicapping. Iíve always thought it was a poor use of my time. I will use your info as a starting point and see what transpires.


I have found it to be worthwhile. You can see how I lost the first day and then I put my head down and got really serious about it. Its a lot of work. I read every horses form although will generally only skim the longer shots unless I see something which interests me. I probably have to look into about 60-70% of those longer shots for further analysis.

I have so far found its worthwhile but its been a big time for meetings over the holiday period. I am hoping it quietens down a bit for the next few days. I need the rest.
Reply With Quote
  #34  
Old 2nd January 2018, 01:23 PM
Shaun Shaun is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: Western Australia
Posts: 5,223
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by UselessBettor
I have found it to be worthwhile. You can see how I lost the first day and then I put my head down and got really serious about it. Its a lot of work. I read every horses form although will generally only skim the longer shots unless I see something which interests me. I probably have to look into about 60-70% of those longer shots for further analysis.

I have so far found its worthwhile but its been a big time for meetings over the holiday period. I am hoping it quietens down a bit for the next few days. I need the rest.


Depending on what you are looking for in your handicapping then it may be possible to automate the process, no different from creating a set of ratings if you can place a numerical allocation to each form item.
__________________
"If the corporates are treating you poorly , just go elsewhere."
"If they need you , they will soon find out."
"If you need them , you will soon find out."
--moeee
_______________________________________________
Reply With Quote
  #35  
Old 2nd January 2018, 02:14 PM
evajb001 evajb001 is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 1,249
Default

Been thinking of trialing something myself, no systems just selecting the horses myself. I'm thinking of just looking at the favorites top-down pre-race and just eliminate the ones as you go down that have minimal chance of winning until you have X amount of selections and just dutch them. I haven't got anything to back up this view but it feels to me like every race you could find a top favorite pretty easy that is significantly hampered by the speedmap.

When it comes time to give it a trial I might post about it and see how I go. Been moving into my new house lately etc so I'd planned on giving it a go in the new year.

Without giving away specifics if you don't want to UB, is there a process that you go through in terms of what elements to look at first?
Reply With Quote
  #36  
Old 2nd January 2018, 02:24 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 3,344
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Shaun
Depending on what you are looking for in your handicapping then it may be possible to automate the process, no different from creating a set of ratings if you can place a numerical allocation to each form item.


I automate everything I can but its just not that easy. I've thought the same and its probably ok to try and narrow down the races at least but I can do that part pretty quickly manually anyway.

Every race is different and I think by looking at the form I am also learning so much more and finding interesting angles I will look to automate later anyway.

I am enjoying the handicapping at the moment even though its a lot of work and tiring.

If I could capture everything I do in my handicapping and automate it there will be a lot of "cases" which dont fit the norm. For instance I will generally include a distance winner but I might not if the there are a lot of them and its not up to the class or the win was on different going or the win was a few years ago or it was in a very weak race. But then I might include it if all the distance winners in todays race fall into the same poor win categories.

This is where the art of handicapping comes in and beats hard and fast rules.
Reply With Quote
  #37  
Old 2nd January 2018, 02:32 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 3,344
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by evajb001
Been thinking of trialing something myself, no systems just selecting the horses myself. I'm thinking of just looking at the favorites top-down pre-race and just eliminate the ones as you go down that have minimal chance of winning until you have X amount of selections and just dutch them. I haven't got anything to back up this view but it feels to me like every race you could find a top favorite pretty easy that is significantly hampered by the speedmap.

When it comes time to give it a trial I might post about it and see how I go. Been moving into my new house lately etc so I'd planned on giving it a go in the new year.

Without giving away specifics if you don't want to UB, is there a process that you go through in terms of what elements to look at first?


Your spot on there about finding those to eliminate and there is generally one or two in the top 5 which can be taken out. You pretty much have my technique written in your steps.

My process is fairly simple:

1. Wait for scratchings. You can't do anything before scratchings.
2. Check the odds and get an idea of the order of ranking. Move through this list in the order and look for horses which might lose.
2. Compare the current horse to the horses above it. This gives you a good idea on its real chances.
3. Does the horse have a chance of winning. I generally stick to 5% or higher as bettable selections. This doesn't mean I don't look at horses above $20 as I might rate them as having a 5% or higher chance of winning. Example from today was Murwillumbah R1: DAUNTING DUCHESS. I had that horse as a possible winner.
4. I then put all my selections into my program and let it run. My program checks the odds and alerts me if they are not in line with my expectations. For instance I might think I have 80% of the market covered and if its out by more than 5% it will let me know. I can then reassess the race if needed.
5. The program will place all bets automatically for me so I at least don't have to be around if I don't want to be but if I am not around it is hard to reassess the races if the odds are out.

I say if you have the time its a great thing to do and you learn lots by doing it. If your looking at races for 4 hours, then watch the races and compare your assessment you can learn so much very quickly.
Reply With Quote
  #38  
Old 2nd January 2018, 02:35 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 3,344
Default

I will be on 12 races today out of the possible 22 races.

I am aiming for a profit of $450 today but based on the odds in the first few races today I may struggle to get to $450.

If your having a bet today good luck.
Reply With Quote
  #39  
Old 2nd January 2018, 03:18 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 3,344
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by UselessBettor
I will be on 12 races today out of the possible 22 races.

I am aiming for a profit of $450 today but based on the odds in the first few races today I may struggle to get to $450.

If your having a bet today good luck.


With Murwillumbah abandoned the target profit is now only $300.
Reply With Quote
  #40  
Old 2nd January 2018, 04:56 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 3,344
Default

Another example of where I had included the winner at long odds. I am not writing this here to brag but to show the reasons why it was included in my selections for dutching. I am looking for horses which can win and this horse had several reasons to include it.

Sapphire Coast R5 Lauriz - $105

So why did I include it.

It was first up in 7 months and there was no barrier trial to give an idea on any improvement or non-improvement. It had also put in a good run back in February when losing by only 2 lengths. The jockey was also running at a 13% strike rate (which is pretty good for a non-well known jockey) so that gave it 3 reasons on why it could be a contender. The barriers the horse had in the last 3 events were all wide as well and previous runs with ok barriers had been acceptable runs for the class. Anyone of these reasons by themselves and you might not include it but combined they gave the horse a chance of winning.

Compare this horse to the fav who had been recently running on wet tracks (apart from last run) and I wouldn't put them that far apart. I can make a case for a bunch more horses in that same race winning too. That is why I dutch the horses I think have a chance. If I am unsure I include the horse in the dutch selections and live with less profit.

Its easy to see these things in hindsight but lucky for me I saw it before the race as well. Its these sort of things which are very hard to automate.

Now my system bets got smashed by it as one of the systems layed that horse. So overall I actually lost on the race even though I had dutched it and won. oh well. That happens sometimes and other times I double up on the winnings.
Reply With Quote
Reply


Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

vB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is On
Forum Jump



All times are GMT +10. The time now is 10:20 PM.


Powered by: vBulletin Version 3.0.3
Copyright ©2000 - 2018, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
©2008 OZmium Pty. Ltd. All rights reserved . ACN 091184655