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  #41  
Old 2nd January 2018, 02:18 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by UselessBettor
I will be on 12 races today out of the possible 22 races.

I am aiming for a profit of $450 today but based on the odds in the first few races today I may struggle to get to $450.

If your having a bet today good luck.


With Murwillumbah abandoned the target profit is now only $300.
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  #42  
Old 2nd January 2018, 03:56 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Another example of where I had included the winner at long odds. I am not writing this here to brag but to show the reasons why it was included in my selections for dutching. I am looking for horses which can win and this horse had several reasons to include it.

Sapphire Coast R5 Lauriz - $105

So why did I include it.

It was first up in 7 months and there was no barrier trial to give an idea on any improvement or non-improvement. It had also put in a good run back in February when losing by only 2 lengths. The jockey was also running at a 13% strike rate (which is pretty good for a non-well known jockey) so that gave it 3 reasons on why it could be a contender. The barriers the horse had in the last 3 events were all wide as well and previous runs with ok barriers had been acceptable runs for the class. Anyone of these reasons by themselves and you might not include it but combined they gave the horse a chance of winning.

Compare this horse to the fav who had been recently running on wet tracks (apart from last run) and I wouldn't put them that far apart. I can make a case for a bunch more horses in that same race winning too. That is why I dutch the horses I think have a chance. If I am unsure I include the horse in the dutch selections and live with less profit.

Its easy to see these things in hindsight but lucky for me I saw it before the race as well. Its these sort of things which are very hard to automate.

Now my system bets got smashed by it as one of the systems layed that horse. So overall I actually lost on the race even though I had dutched it and won. oh well. That happens sometimes and other times I double up on the winnings.
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  #43  
Old 2nd January 2018, 05:03 PM
partypooper partypooper is offline
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Can't remember exactly but I think it was 80%+ of races 1200m and less are won by 1st uppers. I've had a bit of success with race to race doubles with this, so today would have been race 5 nos 4,5,6, into Race 7 ,nos 1,2
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  #44  
Old 2nd January 2018, 05:38 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Thanks party. I could look it up and might do that later.

Today's results were acceptable. With only two meetings I was never going to make much.

Results:
Week 1: $1770 Profit
Day 8: $2460 Profit
Day 9: $1570 Profit
Day 10: $1240 Profit
Day 11: $340 Profit

Total Profit : $7380
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  #45  
Old 2nd January 2018, 09:43 PM
Mark Mark is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by partypooper
Can't remember exactly but I think it was 80%+ of races 1200m and less are won by 1st uppers.


I've no evidence to back it up John, but that doesn't sound right.
On the other hand, thank you Lord Of The Sky.
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  #46  
Old 3rd January 2018, 10:43 AM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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I have handicapped three meetings today but I am really tired. Because of this tiredness I have been extra careful and been conservative on the selections.

After 3 meetings I will only be on 7 races out of 24 races. The expected profit from this is around $300.

I'll knock off the other two meetings in the next hour hopefully.

I'm checking that stat on the sprint races now. I'll report back when I have the information.
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  #47  
Old 3rd January 2018, 10:55 AM
evajb001 evajb001 is offline
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UB is there a free rating/prepost that you've found to have the best accuracy in terms of being similar to the final odds. Obviously final odds are most accurate but that makes it harder to make pre-race decisions and be most efficient. Obviously there are the widely used tatts ratings but I'm just curious if there are any pre-posts available that give similar outcomes. If not thats fine just curious.

Cheers
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  #48  
Old 3rd January 2018, 11:07 AM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by evajb001
UB is there a free rating/prepost that you've found to have the best accuracy in terms of being similar to the final odds. Obviously final odds are most accurate but that makes it harder to make pre-race decisions and be most efficient. Obviously there are the widely used tatts ratings but I'm just curious if there are any pre-posts available that give similar outcomes. If not thats fine just curious.

Cheers


No I use the opening bookie prices rather than prepost odds. Prepost odds are computer generated and just a rating. Bookies prices are much better as the bookie needs to stand behind that decision and if they get it wrong it could cost them a lot of money.

The final odds are still the best indicator.
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  #49  
Old 3rd January 2018, 11:08 AM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by UselessBettor
I'm checking that stat on the sprint races now. I'll report back when I have the information.


ok checked it out.

First starters + resumers make up 24% of the fields in sprints (1200m or less). They win 25% of the races.
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  #50  
Old 3rd January 2018, 12:29 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Finished the form analysis and I will be on 12 races today from 38 races.
The likely profit in a few races at Geraldton is reasonable so the overall target profit for the day is now $525.

If your having a bet good luck.
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