for those who are interested in the first fives that are given under extra form, this is how I use them , and the more successfully as my data base gets bigger.Small data base's will give distoted figures and it is far, far better if you have all the runs of a horse. I am gradually building up mine daily so at the moment I look mostly at 3yo races. 2yo's I will start soon and Sat. races are best.
1. I only look at races between 1100m to 2500m. Expect about an 80% strike rate for the winner of the race to be in the top five horses with the highest first five figures. If you have too many on the same figure,ie. all 100% give the race a miss or take the horse that has had the most starts.
2. look at all runners in the field, list these first five figures (over 65%)next to runners name in the newspaper (early 2yo figures, use your own judgment to bet or not. I give then a miss.
3. if the race has all runners with less than a 75% strike rate in the first five, give the race a miss. Also if looking for a horse for say the fifth spot, do not go below 65%.
4. from TAB no 1 down mark off the top five with the highest figures. ie 100% in the first five is 1, 99% is 2 etc. If one of your system selector horses are in this top five. then back it, if it is not, then I do not.
5. to be more picky I then look at the horses performance over todays distance, track figures, 1st ups and if it can handle todays track conditions.
6. take a lot of notice of these performance figures as they give an big lead in as to what the horse can do. I look at every one of them and I have asked Neale to add in 2nd up figures to this list as well. Hope he can some time.
7. I then combine this with sectional times, but that is another very good story again.

I have found that by doing this, I have improved a system selector from say 25% to over 60%. This includes Neales free systems. e.g. last sat 29/05/04 Neales BR$1 system had 6 selections with 3 wins. I only backed the 3 wins. Thanks Neale.
Hope this is a help.

I was curious myself about this new addition. I wonder if Neale would think about including it as a criteria in system selector in a future update. Perhaps as percentage (eg. like the win and place percentage criteria) or as a ranking (eg. like the win% rank).

Welcome back AHJAY.
Its been such a long time since we have heard from you.
Good luck .
darky.

Hi Ahjay.

Have been following the system you posted originally with mixed success. I have applied a couple of extra filters via PPPro which helps a little.
In your original post you mentioned that you had others, for different distances etc. I would appreciate greatly if you could give me an insight into these, either on the forum or by personal contact with me.
Thanks in advance.
exandx at hotmail.com

to Dan, Darkydog and X and X.
There must have been another Ahjay in times gone by as I have only had the program since late last year and bought it as a supplement to the first fives I was investigating. The reason for this was that I have a good friend who has won heaps (now a millionaire) from F5's and sectional times. He put me onto it a long long time ago and it was only in the last couple of years that I found the F5's on the Ozeform website and I began invesigating. I found them extremely useful to get the field down to 5 horses, similar to any ratings, and used in conjunction with these, even more useful. By doing this you will lift your strike rates, but drop in average price winners. Now that Neale has also included sectional times to the program I am switching to these with excellent results, I use them as the main point of my selection criteria, along with F5's ( in top 5)and also Neales ratings ( must be above 80% chance). Most runners are between 80-100% so therefore I am using the F5's and sectional times as my main guide. Last Sat Neales LSW Longshot system had a fair few selections (I discounted the dead track that came up, as I consider that my method discounts that track condition, not slow tracks though). After I applied my rules it left 4 horses for 3 winners. So I will continue on with my investigations, and collecting, and get to where my mate is (not necessarily touring China, where I last heard that he was, but with a bank account along his lines. Hopefully Neale will be able to put the F5's onto the system selector as I know it will be really helpful to you all. The sectional times rules that I use are somewhat complicated and hard for Neale to add as it may mean a major program restructre. Sorry that this is so long winded.

SECTIONAL TIMES.

After reading Ahjays post in which he refers to sectional times, I am at a loss, as I have never used this criteria in my form studies. Could some of the better informed readers of this forum please give me an insight as to the use of this data or, point me in the right direction to a site that I can go to for the necessary information.

Thanks.

enjay

enjay,

try the saddlerat site which has par times available for each track.

I'm currently working on a racetime and last 600m time etc strategy myself.

I think you have to start by finding times over various distances, on various tracks, in various going.

This would be a base, and the point which I'm currently working on.

I'm also looking at combining ratings for the horses based on peak time at the distance,going track etc. But it's in it's infancy at the moment.


[ This Message was edited by: Chrome Prince on 2004-06-09 00:30 ]

Great Post Ahjay.

Can someone tell me where on the Ozeform Site the First Five info is.

Enjay and Trench Digger.
I prefer to use PP F5's figures as the are correct to the amount of runs you have for each horse. For this reason I download daily to get all runs and if a NZ horse comes over, I goto Ozeform site. On this site, under FORM, type in the horses name and you will see the fig. on the right hand side of the page. This is time consuming and why I prefer PP. Be aware the ozeforms fig. sometimes contains trial form as well, so their figs. are sometimes incorrect. I find their speed maps on this site helpful also.

To enjay. what you are doing with sectional times may be good, but there is a possibility that you may be carrying things further than what you need to. You are perhaps doing a version of speed ratings, which I tried 10-15 years ago, but I could not get it to be any better than any other forms of ratings, data was poor then which also did not help. Perhaps you may succeed where I failed, Keep in touch.

In regard to sectional times, I suggest that you continue to do your own homework and I will help out where I feel confident to do so. My stuff has yet to be proven. It has been excellent since Feb/March this year, which covers some summer, all autumn & now some winter class horses. I am running at 172% profit on turnover at the moment. Even if it drops to half this, that will be fine by me.
For a start point, I look at the horses last 2 runs & todays distance to be +/- 300m of last run, +/- 500m of second last run. average margin for last 3 runs +/- 4.5 lengths and average weight carried for the past 3 runs 53.5 min to 58kg max. all this is easy to see in EXTRA FORM of PP. I am waiting for more proof on whether I should tighten these figures or not. I then do my calculations for the sectional times and see if they are less than my set times that I require and if so I back it. These set times are also yet to be proven and I may have them a bit tight as they have cost me some good over 20's winners. I am waiting until spring horses before I will be fully confident. Until then I will remain a small punter.

Hi Ahjay,
A great Posting ! Well done - I look forward to spending more time working on the thoughts you conveyed - I look forward to hearing more from you.