stumbled across this site last night that predicted possible outcomes of games, margins and expected margins.

league- 6/7 winners [warriors lost]
raiders 1-12
storm 13+
parra to win by 4
sharks to win by 8

afl -5/8 winners
Freemanlte/Port/Saints/kangaroos,25+

Super 12 only 2/5 winners
Brumbies 13+

plus, soccer tennis nba cricket formula 1

but i'm only looking at league & afl at the moment, might just follow them for 2 weeks before i start backing them, could be handy for small *sportpunter*

Any one else been there , if so, what do you think

cheers



[ This Message was edited by: goldmember on 2004-03-29 11:34 ]

How does that compare with how they usually go? The League results you mentioned look okay, but the AFL and especially the S12 results don't look all that special.

[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-03-29 11:46 ]

No they don't sportz, i'm not a big union fan anyway, but i thought i shouldn't just put in the better results just for league and afl. could you help me with the percentages of a bank i posted b4 i still cant get it
thanks
Looking at their results in afl they seem to go better in earlier rounds

[ This Message was edited by: goldmember on 2004-03-29 11:53 ]

There results for AFL go back to 1999,
LEAGUE & S12 to 2003

in s 12 small profit last year 3.2%
r1 + 82.8%
r2 - 35.1%
r3 + 249.6%
r4 + 186.3%
r5 + 22.7%
r6 + 25.2%

AFL
1999 + 12.5% [98/166]
2000 + 10.9% [91/157]
2001 + 10.7% [100/163]
2002 + 15.5% [86/149]
2003 + 9.7% [77/154]
WIZ1 + 47.4% [3/6]
WIZ2 + 73.1% [2/3]
WIZ3 + 108.7% [2/2]
FINAL - 100% [0/1]
2004 R1 -35.6% [3/7]
2004 so far + 24%

R- LEAGUE
2003 -2.1% [players missing to rep games didnt help the results of some games- the say]
r1 +127.7% [5/6]
r2 + 5.3% [1/5]
r3 + 62.2% [4/7]


Thats using their kelly system of probabils, overlays and price. im trying to work out the percentge of a bank to put on , but im still stuck

Iv'e got it now thanks to sportz

cheers


[ This Message was edited by: goldmember on 2004-03-29 12:42 ]

[ This Message was edited by: goldmember on 2004-03-29 12:45 ]

[ This Message was edited by: goldmember on 2004-03-29 14:03 ]

I'd stay away from full kelly. Even half kelly can call for betting large %s of your BR. If you have an expendable BR then go ahead. Otherwise, I'd stay away.

The Full Kelly and the Half Kelly? Sounds like wrestling moves! :grin:

Well in a way they are. Wrestling with your BR, and they'll either make you or break you :lol: