I am a regular Saturday afternoon punter, I have up and down days like we all do but would like to develop a definitive ratings method that I stick to in order to make this more of a business of a serious nature rather than a weekend hobby!!

Reading other posts on here I am seeing that people use numerous methods in their betting ie: Spreadsheets, databases etc etc

How am I able to get my hand on such tools to assist in my betting strategy and progress!!!!

[ This Message was edited by: TajRossi75 on 2002-11-12 12:29 ]

hi taj rossi

there are numerous ways to get ratings either in this forum or site and many others as a matter of fact there is an abundance of ratings someones got to pick the winner.

Developing something yourself is probably the best way as you know exactly how the selections come about.

When you put the serious money on one wants to be sure that the selections are done in a consistent way using the same criteria whatever that is.

When you rely on a external party then its a risk as you dont know if the selections were consistent with the previous races.

Its the old saying give the man fish and feed him for a day or teach the man to fish and hell never go hungry.

So yes get the info but ultimately find your way.

regards
ubetido

Welcome to the forum.
By your posting, I am assuming you are actually looking for the tools to make assessments rather than actual methods. I think you have some idea of your own methods but wish to streamline them using tools to make it quicker etc.
Do you have Microsoft excel and Microsoft access on your computer?
If so, there are many free tutorials available on the net.
If you post exactly what you would like to do, perhaps I could make you up a spreadsheet with the formulae etc.
As far as access goes, I have an example tutorial I can send you - I'm learning it myself at the moment.
you can contact me at mrdavidking@hotmail.com and I'll see if I can help you out.
Cheers.


[ This Message was edited by: Equine Investor on 2002-11-12 13:31 ]

hi equine investor

are there any tools that you or others have had success with in making assessments more accurate.

I would like to discuss this in a bit more depth so if u like email me.

Alternatively if you like and is ok ill email you.

ubetido
ubetido@iprimus.com.au

Without a doubt you really need some sort of database tool if you want to be able to store large amounts of historical data and use that to build and/or test a selection plan. My personal tool of choice is Microsoft Access but it is not something you can just load on your computer and start using straight away - you definitely need to take some time to learn about databases in general and then how to use Access (or whichever database you choose). As EI says there are a few different on-line tutorials or take a browse through the computer section of your local bookstore. Most evening colleges that run computer courses generally cover Access but the quality of the course depends on how good the teacher is.

Good luck
"Becareful"

PS. If anyone has any Microsoft Access questions feel free to email me (you can send it to the tipping comp. email address) and I will do my best to answer them.

_________________
"Computers can do that????" - Homer Simpson

[ This Message was edited by: becareful on 2002-11-12 14:47 ]

As becareful says, it is also not just the information you are able to obtain, it is how you apply it and to what degree, also being able to assess accurately what impact on longterm results each filter has.
You really need an extensive database with as much information as possible to make it accurate.
For a simple example:
A horse (Campaign King) on "paper" won it's last three starts in the country and each race was worth say $8,000.
The next horse (Hexagonal) ran 3 lengths 5th at it's last three runs at Caulfied and each race was a listed race worth $101,000.

So you're left on face value with this in the formguide.

-555 Campaign King 59.5 4/1
-111 Hexagonal 55.5 7/1

Immediately, without further form investigation you'd have to have Hexagonal on recent form, but if you dig deeper it's obvious on race performance that Campaign King is the better bet.
This is just a very rough example, if longwinded.
It's just to show that you must go in-depth with your form analysis and to do that you need as much information as possible.
As far as access tutorials go, there is an excellent one written by Martin Brydon a U.S. University lecturer with actual examples and practical tests. If you're anything like me, reading a wad full of information just doesn't sink in quickly.
I am more technically minded, so doing practical exercises helps me to learn and see how I could readily apply it to horseracing.
If anyone wants the tutorial (which he designed for students off campus) let me know via email and I'll send the entire thing to you or if there is a lot of interest I'll put it on a website.

P.S. you'll need winzip or similar to extract the files, adobe acrobat reader or similar to view the tutorial as it's in .pdf format - and of course Microsoft Access for this tutorial.

Also if you have a tutorial which you think is quite good I'd be grateful to have a look at it as the one I have is excellent, but a few years old.



[ This Message was edited by: Equine Investor on 2002-11-12 15:40 ]

As a postscript - it is easy just to give out the link to his tutorial because there are a few files to download.

http://mis.bus.sfu.ca/tutorials/MSAccess/tutorials.html

Here are some links to other helpful tutorials.

http://www.coscc.cc.tn.us/tlc/links_library.htm (it's a very big page so scroll down until you get to computer software about halfway down, and you'll find access and excel tutorials written by lecturers for students off campus).

hi equine investor

I can see where you are coming from with the analogy of prizemoney as a measuring stick.

The only thing i find with that application is that it doesnt pick up on the improving horse.

For example a horse that wins in a lower grade race with lower prizemoney then turns out in a higher grade but has improved in between the run.

It happens all the time and thats the unpredictabiity of racing. Have you been using this sort of analysis with any success.

regards
ubetido

ubetido,
yes I have been trialling a method similar to this but as you say there are variables which need to be factored in. Prizemoney alone is not enough, you must combine it with weight carried, consistency, recent form and lengths beaten (very important).

There are probably very different viewpoints from everyone on the relative importance of each factor, that is why 10 people might have the same criteria, but come up with 10 different selections.
As to improving horses, generally they will not beat a class horse which is in form. I say generally statistically speaking. Improving horses usually go through the grades very quickly and as such their prizemoney results from wins or very close placings if they're really class horses. So a class improving horse would probably have better recent prizemoney than say a poor performing Bomber Bill etc. That's why I say recent form is important as is recent prizemoney. Quite often very good horses will come back from a spell well below their previous potential (Calaway Gal or Quays for example).
It is important to recognise that there will be exceptions to just about every rule you can think of, but you have to go with the weight of statistics.
An improving horse will beat a class horse below it's best form though and usually at decent odds.
There will be those that debate my views and those that agree, that's just the variables of racing. You have to come up with something you're comfortable with and stick to it if it's profitable longterm - not give it away on one bad week.
Having said that, you must constantly look for ways to improve the longterm result. Trends and patterns change quite frequently, which is why a lot of systems based on past results fail.

[ This Message was edited by: Equine Investor on 2002-11-13 01:42 ]