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  #5171  
Old 13th April 2017, 01:17 AM
jake jake is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Raystef5845
Instead, goodbye to either the Western Force or the Rebels.

..both based in staunch afl states
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  #5172  
Old 18th April 2017, 03:35 AM
Raystef5845 Raystef5845 is offline
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Default Super Rugby Week 9

For week 8, I couldn’t find any head-to-head value bets again. The payoffs for the favourites have been are too small to bother with and the underdogs weren’t likely enough to win to risk money on them. I did find 11 starting-points-difference bets that looked good starting with week 5. 7 of the 11 cashed. The new alignment continues to produce a lot of one-sided games. My favourites have won 79% of the games so far. That’s my highest ever through week 8.

It was interesting that the talk last week was about SANZAR moving the Sunwolves to the Australian Conference next year as part of going back to 15 teams. I missed the part where Japan became the 8th state. So, either the Western Force or the Rebels are to go. The Rebels responded by upsetting the Brumbies. The pathetic Sunwolves responded by losing 50-3. New Zealand bookmakers have cut off taking bets on the Highlanders to beat the Sunwolves.

Good luck with week 9.

Ray Stefani
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File Type: doc Super Rugby Week 9.doc (50.5 KB, 336 views)
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  #5173  
Old 22nd April 2017, 11:33 AM
Fatcat Fatcat is offline
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Thanks for this great work Ray. Been going well on the betting front using this information.

As a matter of interest, do you do something similar for the UK premiership soccer league (EPL)?
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  #5174  
Old 23rd April 2017, 08:17 AM
Raystef5845 Raystef5845 is offline
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Default Super Rugby Week 10

Those point difference bets continue to be a good idea. Three of five point-start-difference value bets cashed last week, bringing the total to 11 of 17 since week 5, a 21% profit on turnover. My favorite team won 6 and tied 1 out of 8 matches, bringing season accuracy to 80%, a new high for this date.

The next matches are in two weeks.

Fatcat asked about my EPL predictions. I worked with EPL predictions for a number of years. For soccer, I gave fair odds for a win, draw and loss. There was a special form of betting called draw-no-loss that I evaluated too. If you guys are interested, I could think about restarting my EPL picks for next season.

Good luck when week 10 rolls around.

Ray Stefani
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File Type: doc Super Rugby Week 10.doc (50.5 KB, 306 views)
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  #5175  
Old 23rd April 2017, 09:50 AM
Fatcat Fatcat is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Raystef5845
Fatcat asked about my EPL predictions. I worked with EPL predictions for a number of years. For soccer, I gave fair odds for a win, draw and loss. There was a special form of betting called draw-no-loss that I evaluated too. If you guys are interested, I could think about restarting my EPL picks for next season.
I'd really appreciate you doing this Ray for next season. Would like to give it a crack

Cheers
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  #5176  
Old 23rd April 2017, 09:56 AM
Fatcat Fatcat is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Raystef5845
The next matches are in two weeks.
Ray - using your attached Week 10 doc predictions....can I ask you to update this section " Example Using the Betting Rules"in the attachment as I'd like to make sure my Excel template I've created is correct please.

Also - assuming that Rb in your word document would be using Sportsbet odds or UBet odds as the "factor"?
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  #5177  
Old 2nd May 2017, 04:10 AM
Raystef5845 Raystef5845 is offline
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Default Super Rugby Week 11

Last week we picked two upsets, thanks to the Waratahs and the Southern Kings.

For week 11, only one match is predicted to be under a 10-point margin. The bookmakers are having to post some seriously high odds on the underdogs to get any action.

Good luck,

Ray Stefani
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  #5178  
Old 2nd May 2017, 04:12 AM
Raystef5845 Raystef5845 is offline
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Default Super Rugby Week 11 with predictions

I forgot to upload the predictions in my last send.

Last week we picked two upsets, thanks to the Waratahs and the Southern Kings.

For week 11, only one match is predicted to be under a 10-point margin. The bookmakers are having to post some seriously high odds on the underdogs to get any action.

Good luck,

Ray Stefani
Attached Files
File Type: doc Super Rugby Week 11.doc (50.5 KB, 310 views)
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  #5179  
Old 2nd May 2017, 04:25 AM
Raystef5845 Raystef5845 is offline
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Default Correction for Fatcat

Quote:
Originally Posted by Fatcat
Ray - using your attached Week 10 doc predictions....can I ask you to update this section " Example Using the Betting Rules"in the attachment as I'd like to make sure my Excel template I've created is correct please.

Also - assuming that Rb in your word document would be using Sportsbet odds or UBet odds as the "factor"?


Oops, I made an error in writing that there was a two-week gap.

I use the symbol R to mean the decimal odds. Rb means the bookie's decimal odds, like for SportsBet. Rf means my fair odds.
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  #5180  
Old 3rd May 2017, 04:36 PM
Raystef5845 Raystef5845 is offline
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Default To Fatcat

Quote:
Originally Posted by Fatcat
Ray - using your attached Week 10 doc predictions....can I ask you to update this section " Example Using the Betting Rules"in the attachment as I'd like to make sure my Excel template I've created is correct please.

Also - assuming that Rb in your word document would be using Sportsbet odds or UBet odds as the "factor"?


I can check your Excel spread sheet. Just email me at Raystefani@aol.com and attach it with an explanation.
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