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  #71  
Old 3rd February 2011, 09:00 PM
michaelg michaelg is offline
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I'm not sure how to maximize the profit, if possible. I've for quite sometime now looked at the Telegraph pre-post market for different systems but their prices are generally very inconsistent, even in small fields.

For the time being I expect to leave the method as it is, unless you or someone comes up with an idea. I'm more concerned about the results continuing, and at the same time amazed that it is continuing to be successful.


Today there were four smiles from the four selections for a profit of $16.40.

And for the 199.50-plus method there were six smiles from the six selections for a profit of $25.45. Compensates for yesterday's loss and puts the method in profit.

P.S. - the only idea I've got about your suggestion is to somehow apply the neural price to the selection. I might have to think about it.

Last edited by michaelg : 3rd February 2011 at 09:05 PM.
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  #72  
Old 4th February 2011, 08:08 AM
Merriguy Merriguy is offline
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I guess one can be too greedy!! One can always up the liability if things keep going so well --- and keep on being successful, of course. I have been writing down the neurals for each selection; but haven't analysed them yet.

Anyway more than enough to do today with NINE meetings. Good luck.
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  #73  
Old 4th February 2011, 08:57 AM
michaelg michaelg is offline
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Merriguy, here's an idea that has been running in my mind concerning the method.

Seeing that the top horse in the neural rating has been performing so badly one would expect this might also apply to the more-fancied horses in the ratings.

I'm considering laying every horse in the qualifying races, and the liability will be on a sliding scale, say, of $5.

The concept is that the biggest outsider in the neural market will have the minimum S.P. liability of $30, then the next biggest outsider will have $35, and so on until the fave in the neural market has the highest liability.

So, if there are 12 horses in the race, the liability will be $85. Of course the winner/accident will obviously be struck, but there'll also be 11 horses that each will provide a profit. The worst return will be if the neural fave wins because it will have the highest liability, but the method so far shows the neural fave does not have a good record of winning.

I'm hoping the inaccuracy of the neurals will provide a nett profit using this rough version of dutch-laying.

I don't know if I will pursue the above method, but at the moment I'm considering it.
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  #74  
Old 4th February 2011, 11:08 AM
michaelg michaelg is offline
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Today's selections are:

Tamworth
7/7

Pakenham
1/7
2/9
5/13
7/6
9/10

Ipswich
3/11
5/10

Sun Coast
4/9

Canterbury
5/6


200 POINTS

Tamworth
2/7
6/5

Sun Coast
3/6

Albury
1/16
2/9
3/9

Canterbury
4/6


When Geraldton scratchings are known I'll list the selections.
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  #75  
Old 4th February 2011, 12:12 PM
Merriguy Merriguy is offline
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Couple of disagreements, Michael;

Pak should be 1/12, not 1/7 I think.

And Ipswich 4/12 and 7/8 qualify don't they?

As do Moonee Valley 4/8 and 8/9; and Cant 2/13 and 7/14???

Just did the evening meetings in a hurry to match with yours (was going to do them at my leisure this afternoon!!). So could have made a mistake or two.
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  #76  
Old 4th February 2011, 12:52 PM
michaelg michaelg is offline
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Hi, merriguy.

Pakenham 1/12 - I had correctly written the selection as no.12 on my sheet that I identify the selections. Don't know what went wrong. I layed no.12 and made a profit of $10.18

Ipswich 4/12 - the scratchings make it a no-race.

Ipswich 7/8 - yes, it is a selection for the 200 Points method.

M.Valley 4/8 - the scratchings make it a no race.

M.Valley 8/9 - yes it is a selection for the 200 points method.

Canterbury 2/13 - I decided not be bet on the race because all the horses are having their first race start. If this happens again I will say so when listing the selections.

Canterbury 7/14 - its scratched, and the next highest ranked horse was no.1.

As a matter of interest with the neurals, not all venues are loaded with the scratchings - I don't know why.

Geraldton
5/8
7/5

200 POINTS
8/8
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  #77  
Old 4th February 2011, 01:09 PM
Merriguy Merriguy is offline
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Thanks, Michael. Sooner or later I'll remember the full consequence of scratchings!

Good start to the day.
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  #78  
Old 4th February 2011, 01:43 PM
michaelg michaelg is offline
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And sooner or later I'll remember to double-check the selections, with or without my bad back.
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  #79  
Old 4th February 2011, 09:30 PM
michaelg michaelg is offline
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The system has finally lost. There were 2 accidents from 7 selections for a loss of $37.28.


200 POINTS.

A good result today. There was 1 accident from 11 selections for a profit of $85.14. Fortunately I layed them, so I had a winning day.
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  #80  
Old 5th February 2011, 11:12 AM
michaelg michaelg is offline
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Today's selections are:

Dombeen
7/6

Morphetville
5/5

Newcastle
7/12

Grafton
4/8

Hobart
1/5
4/9

Gold Coast
1/11
2/6
7/11
8/9


200 POINTS

Grafton
1/11 - already run- it was an accident. Not a good way to start the day!!!

Dombeen
3/7
6/16

Hobart
5/9

Gold Coast
3/6 (429 points).

Ascot to follow.
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