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  #1  
Old 28th November 2017, 02:17 AM
walkermac walkermac is offline
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Default The online bookie and exchange killer

...or so their propoganda would have you believe.

Cryptocurrency is huge. Whether or not the current interest is simply hype and speculation, it has certainly brought some technological advancements. At the core of most cryptocurrencies is the 'blockchain', which has been called the most disruptive invention since the internet. For a better description than I could manage: https://www.coindesk.com/informatio...echnology-work/

Applications will extend well beyond providing digital currencies. One of those is as a "prediction market", or - if you're not American and obfuscating due to concerns over local legality - a betting exchange.

Augur is working towards such a "prediction market" and they've been around since 2014: http://reason.com/blog/2015/08/11/a...iction-ethereum

From Augur's Documentation (http://docs.augur.net/):

Quote:
Augur allows anyone to create an openly tradable Market about any upcoming event. Augur will maintain an Order Book for each of the markets created. Any trader can place or take an Order on the Market’s Order Book. When placing an trade, if there is an Order on the book that will fulfill your trade request then it will be Filled immediately. If there is no matching Order, or your trade request can only be partially Filled, the remainder of what wasn’t filled of your trade will be placed on the Order Book as an Order. If you are the Creator of the Order you can cancel it to remove it from the Order Book. Orders are executed on a “first come, first served” basis.
There are some fears regarding what it could mean for racing: http://www.thoroughbrednews.com.au/...t.aspx?id=82984. In short: anonymity could mean corruption and there won't be levies going back to fund racing.

The fees are expected to be far, far lower than what even Betfair charges. Whomever creates a market collects a small percentage: "The Creator Fee is designed to incentivize users to make popular Markets as they stand to earn money if enough people trade on the Market. They can then recoup their market creation cost and ideally turn a profit on posting interesting Markets". The percentage will trend down as traders will choose to participate in Markets with the least costs.

As the whole thing is decentralised, the only other charge is the Reporting Fee which goes to whomever validates the winning result of the bet (this bit can get quite complicated to mitigate any risk of mis-reporting).

All of this is particularly appealing to jurisdictions where gambling isn't illegal (e.g. much of the USA). It would pretty much be unstoppable.

The problem would be liquidity. Also, I can't see what would stop there being a thousand replicated "Who Wins the Melbourne Cup?" markets, though I suppose that it must be possible for a nouveau online bookmaker to provide an interface that only showed the markets they created amongst those from the whole system.

There's a beta system up currently but its design is pretty ordinary; I can't even figure out what's going on: https://app.augur.net

Augur will use its own REP coin (it needs to in case of reporting disputes, though they're considered unlikely). It was worth $US1.50 two years ago, now one is worth just shy of $28. Whether it's speculation - as seems to be the case for many of these cryptocurrencies - or belief in their vision, remains to be seen.


Other companies trying to do something similar are Gnosis and Hivemind. With respect to gambling, there's even an online poker site in the works, called Virtue Poker. There are already sportsbooks that work in cryptocurrencies.
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  #2  
Old 28th November 2017, 08:32 AM
Shaun Shaun is offline
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If you think about betfair and how they started, no one thought they would have an impact, the only real downside to betfair as a company is they became to creedy.

Collecting all these formed markets in one place is the key, this will also open up new trading options.
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  #3  
Old 28th November 2017, 08:55 AM
evajb001 evajb001 is offline
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Working in the finance industry we've just started to get queries about cryptocurrency as an investment pathway. All the social media hype about it, adverts on websites and even regular media coverage now gets pretty hard to ignore or miss after a while - especially with so many tales of people becoming overnight millionaires...

I'm still very skeptical myself, there are so many coins out there now, some with visions/stories that make a lot of sense but the difficulty comes (I believe) in people actually going to the effort of purchasing the coin so they can then take part in whatever the general use of the coin is.

Bitcoin makes most sense because its actively used already for regular purchasing of items and is obviously the largest, but I just can't really see the take up being so successful with the micro coins. I even have my doubts over Bitcoin which is maybe the pessimist in me but the whole market just seems so flakey to me and the power of governments shouldn't be ignored if they wish to squash it all. If coins start being used to avoid taxes and other fees etc don't be surprised that governments start to make it more and more difficult for them to be used.

It will take more time for the market to mature some more before I'm convinced. I know the above isn't exactly what your post was in reference to walkermac but it somewhat applies to the gambling/market concept and relevant coins. Betfairs exchange approach is still ideal, its just unfortunate they essentially turned traders away because that provided huge market liquidity. My guess is that if someone had the balls to essentially do a better version of Betfair with the appropriate server backing that can handle the trading etc at low fee levels then you'd be onto a huge winner. Especially if they harnessed it in the right way to still basically make a profit on every race.
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Old 28th November 2017, 10:12 AM
darkydog2002 darkydog2002 is offline
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I,m with you there.

I wouldn,t touch Bit coin with a Barge Pole.
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  #5  
Old 28th November 2017, 12:43 PM
Shaun Shaun is offline
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Bitcoin is just crazy in the last month it has gone from 6k to almost 10k in value and there is no limit on how far it will rise, sound great if you had a few 100k to invest for 3 months.
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  #6  
Old 28th November 2017, 05:23 PM
walkermac walkermac is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by evajb001
but the difficulty comes (I believe) in people actually going to the effort of purchasing the coin so they can then take part in whatever the general use of the coin is.
I didn't intend for discussion on the post to lead this way, but I agree to an extent. I think that we're going to see this realm explode (beyond the speculative bubble we see now) once it all becomes an incidental thing. Instead of buying cryptocurrency for general purchases you'd load value into your betting account, or your car, or your energy trading system, or where you purchase your entertainment, etc ....and you wouldn't have any idea that it's all working because of the blockchain and the cryptographic transactions being made behind the scenes. Consequently I find it a bit difficult to see the value in buying many of the coins themselves as much of them are simply used by the companies as capital raising and as the buyers to hold onto for speculation. I suppose buyers could also be cheerleaders/supporters if they're especially fanatical regarding what's being created, but unlike shares, there are no dividends. Holdings only earn if there's someone willing to trade/buy them off you.

Quote:
Originally Posted by evajb001
Bitcoin makes most sense because its actively used already for regular purchasing of items and is obviously the largest, but I just can't really see the take up being so successful with the micro coins.
I've only really been looking at cryptocurrencies the past couple of weeks and much of my interest was spurred by seeing how successful Bitcoin was as a speculative holding vs how much of a practical failure it was, to my mind. The decentralisation it was supposed to usher in no longer exists, the transaction time can be ridiculously long (particuarly given how comparatively few transactions are made on it), there is so much wasted computational effort and electricity (one transaction can power 10 households for a day) and fees are getting higher.

It needs support for timely consumer purchases. As it can take hours or even days before a crypto transaction is irreversibly in the blockchain, the risk that it's a fraudulent payment must be taken on or offset to a third party (not too disimilar to a credit card company, I guess). Right now that insurance is at a fraction of the cost of credit card surcharges, but how long will that go on once the bitcoin price stabilises? And how does that jibe with a decentralised economy if the bulk of consumer payments are going through these clearing houses?

Bitcoin has the first mover advantage, but there are other currencies which seem to do a better job of just about everything. It'll be interesting to see who becomes betamax and who becomes VHS (the former was first to market and a better quality product but the latter won on account of its price and longer recording time, which consumers ultimately valued more). Bitcoin certainly has the promotional advantage, but it's not even the biggest news story as far as gains go: Ethereum (the system that Augur is piggybacking on) was less than $10 at the start of the year and is now worth $500. It does everything Bitcoin does and more but, as Augur demonstrates, you can use it without their Ether cryptocurrency unit so....what does that make Ether worth?

Quote:
I even have my doubts over Bitcoin which is maybe the pessimist in me but the whole market just seems so flakey to me and the power of governments shouldn't be ignored if they wish to squash it all. If coins start being used to avoid taxes and other fees etc don't be surprised that governments start to make it more and more difficult for them to be used.
They can hamper it by blocking IP addresses for exchanges or seeds, prosecuting businesses that accept it as payment or threatening to run them through the courts, not extending consumer protection to cryptocurrency transactions, etc. This would limit its value on exchanges, but they can't really stop it given that it's a peer-to-peer network with no authority. ...unless they buy up more than 51% of the processing power on the network and gain control of the blockchain. Probably more likely is that they and the rest of the establishment push their own coin that doesn't break the existing laws and financial systems (Ripple or Tether would appear the likeliest contenders).

Quote:
Originally Posted by evajb001
My guess is that if someone had the balls to essentially do a better version of Betfair with the appropriate server backing that can handle the trading etc at low fee levels then you'd be onto a huge winner. Especially if they harnessed it in the right way to still basically make a profit on every race.
Well, you could do it with Augur, it even has an API. Don't even have to worry about servers as it's a distributed network. As soon as their platform is stable you could start a Market, set your owner percentage, fill it with the fields data scraped from online, and cross your fingers that two parties bet on it so that you can claim your percentage of the winnings. You could even scrape the results and Report the winner. The whole thing could be automated and you could just sit back, relax and wait to be prosecuted as soon as you cashed in your REP coins and the authorities figured out who you were!

If you wanted to make a prolonged go of it you'd be better off working in concert with the government and racing bodies. Given that Betfair had over 100 million AUD profit a few years ago, I could comfortably knock a few percentage points off the vig and manage to get by....


Quote:
Originally Posted by darkydog2002
I wouldn,t touch Bit coin with a Barge Pole
Buy Tether, it's pegged to actual currencies! Seriously, just like gambling, only invest what you're prepared to lose. I was going to throw $50 at a few cryptocurrencies I liked the look of and then forget about them for the next 5 years. While procrastinating these past few days (getting an account on the Australian exchange that I found is a bit of a pain) my favoured pick went up enough that I would have been halfway to being square. If you had happened across a thread regarding Ethereum on whirlpool in May last year and jumped through the hoops to plop $50 into it, it would now be worth $2500 (and looks likely to continue). Of course the bitcoin bubble could burst and similar currencies crash with it, but the technology is coming either way so, if you're not going to miss the $50, it seems worth the risk.
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  #7  
Old 29th November 2017, 12:41 AM
partypooper partypooper is offline
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I wouldn't touch a Bit Coin with YOUR barge pole!!!
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  #8  
Old 29th November 2017, 09:17 AM
walkermac walkermac is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by walkermac
Well, you could do it with Augur, it even has an API. Don't even have to worry about servers as it's a distributed network. As soon as their platform is stable you could start a Market, set your owner percentage, fill it with the fields data scraped from online, and cross your fingers that two parties bet on it so that you can claim your percentage of the winnings. You could even scrape the results and Report the winner. The whole thing could be automated and you could just sit back, relax and wait to be prosecuted as soon as you cashed in your REP coins and the authorities figured out who you were!
The other issue you'd have is that if your REP coins were only used on the platform and not in wider society, then your punter has to worry about market movement of the cryptocurrency. That is, if they put $50 into their account, win on a horse at $2 odds, then they would expect to be able to pull $100 back out. If they're using a proprietary crypto your $50 might buy you X REPS and your win on a 2x horse earns you 2X REPS but when it comes to withdrawing, you only get $95 as the exchange rate has dropped. Why would you choose that over the service from an existing online bookie? It's like you're gambling twice...

The only way it makes sense is if you use a coin like Bitcoin or Ethereum that can be spent widely, or your cryptobookie acts like a casino does with chips: punters' funds are held and converted into a currency that is worthless everywhere else but is used locally - gaining the benefits from smart contracts and the blockchain - before being converted into a 'proper' currency upon withdrawing your stake from the site.


Quote:
Originally Posted by walkermac
While procrastinating these past few days (getting an account on the Australian exchange that I found is a bit of a pain) my favoured pick went up enough that I would have been halfway to being square
And by today I would have been totally square and playing with house money *sigh* Oh well... I'm sure I won't mind so much when it's at $13000 (like Bitcoin is today - !)
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  #9  
Old 29th November 2017, 10:45 AM
evajb001 evajb001 is offline
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Haha see walkermac this is where I just can't imagine the take up. Using the betting example, the general public want simplicity and if you have to explain to someone about their betting wallet not only being in aussie dollars but being in betcoins where the value of those coins can also fluctuate i'd say it just gets too convoluted for joe blow who wants a simple bet.

It's just like bookies such as SB, I'd assume they are probably the largest corporate in aus or at least very close because their website and phone app are extremely simple to use.

Like you said the system sounds like it would potentially be a double gambling scenario otherwise the coin is simply a speculative investment and the wallet still stays based on a country currency. Either way I just see it being negative for the actual coin at the end of the day.

It all just seems super complex for me at the moment and I prefer to know exactly what I'm investing in or betting with. I'd hazard a guess that 90%+ of general public cryptocurrency 'investors' actually wouldn't have a clue how bitcoin, mining, blockchain or the transactions actually work. Thats a big red flag for me when you've got a market hyperdrived by speculation and fad mentality with minimal knowledge on what they are actually investing within. I mean just look at the GFC or last tech bust - Markets hyperdrived by speculative purchasing of investments that the investors essentially knew nothing about in terms of how it worked and when that tipping point eventually comes which it almost always does it can be quite devastating unless you're fortunate enough to get out at the perfect (lucky) time.
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  #10  
Old 29th November 2017, 12:58 PM
Puntz Puntz is offline
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May ought to be on another thread, but the bitcoin scammers are out there, filling up my junk mail folder no doubt. DELETE.

One bitten twice shy and paid their price dearly a while back when e-gold was all the rave.
Point is, bitcoin itself seems like an ok idea, the concept. Same as e-gold on it's own may have been a good idea. Yet with all the hype, cons etc, not knowing stuff because knowledge and experience arrives differently for some, sooner for others, later for others, none at all for the rest.
Search "bitcoin scmrs". Arrests being made as we punt !

Bitcoin on it's own merit, I have nothing to say yet at this point, observing if it will crash, and why.
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