i wouldnt knock the thread. it is voluntary. a good idea may come up but remember that we are talking about gambling.

i refer to the "gold system" that i threw into the ring on wednesday the problem with systems is you have to run them and attend to them all the time. going on past records is misleading as it assumes you were paying attention when they were running.

in my case last week i backed conquering in hobart and i worked launceston racing for last wednesday but forgot to print it and back the meeting.
the first time conquering paid $12 - on wednesday it won its next start at $18. but i was in the car listening to the races.

that is the difficulty with systems we tend to do it at our convenience - just enjoy the odd win and not try to make a meal of it.

__________________
laurie

Can someone please answer the following:
How many bets are needed before you can confidently say your system makes a profit? 10, 100, 1000? Or more? Now on top of that what odds do you use? Your home state tote? Best tote? Bookies starting price? Bookies top fluctuation?

It is not the number of bets that reflect the stability or viability of a system, well it is, but in conjunction with other indicators.

You need to consider:
Strike rate
Average Dividend
Maximum Dividend
Profit divided by the Maximum dividend

Most important is the ratio of winners making up the profit.

The odds you use are the odds you plan to use.

It's no good with 1000 selections and one of your winners was 500/1
However you might have 1,000 selections and the maximum winner was $5.00

It's a whole different outcome.

I don't use number of bets per se, I split it into years and look at the profit for each year, if a system makes a profit every year, it's a good'un

__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 400,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 30/04/2024
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg

Good observation CP!
The end of year result is the most important but also you have to have at least over 40 bets a month (betting on met. races only).
You also have to break down your betting results at least into monthly chunks, you have a much better understanding then, of how you are traveling.
No use getting all your profit in one month, even if the year was in the black!
I am treading water in Feb. would go backwards in March, (if I persisted with my main handicapping-rating)
Sept. and Oct. are the most profitable, and I'd loved to know, why, two month would be bad, two excellent, and the rest just good?
Cheers

Are you asking about where to bet OR where do you go to backtrack past divies?

If the 1st (and you can go back and check via tab sites with extra time anyway): Disable, Bin, Eliminate, Close all TAB accounts. You cannot win long term unless you have 1 of an all-mighty system.
Go to Sporstsbet.com.au and get the best of the 3 states as a starter until you understand what your selections are bringing you and then what you expect from them.
From your previous posts you seem to be a high strike rate low divie man. Which is what i am only place betting so its a lot easier expectation wise as the margin bands is smaller.
I know what i should be getting as dividends from the 3 states before they cross the line.
I expect:
1 of the 3 atleast to be right on my expectations,
one to be below because its carrying a little extra weight by means of support on the individual race or carry overs from all ups etc.
The 3rd one i expect to exceed my expectations for no reason other then they went a little easier on it.
After all this time i can now sit on betfair and match a price that i believe will be that of the 1st or 3rd one >>> be on or exceed my expectations from the best tote. << This is something you can only get through experiance with your own individual system....again...based on knowing over time what you expect. Nobody can teach you this. Its gut instinct.
If i dont see what i like then i go best of 3 and know the odds are, that i will get that over expectation dividend....maybe not on a particular race but long term. Theres a percentage of my POT that's a little extra because of knowing what my expectations are and looking for that + more.
Yesterday Dark Target in Ascot paid $1.04 / $1.04 / $1.50 unitab. I expected to get $1.20. i would have taken $1.25 - $1.30+ on betfair. As it turned out 2 totes were below my expectations but unitab was over well and truly. The same for a few others like Sweet Julia $1.40 / $1.40 vic $1.90. i was expecting $1.50 tote and would take betfair at $1.50+ to secure it.
At the end of the day you must know your system back the front, know what divies you need + want, sit on a best of the 3 site on the 2nd last page before process screen ready incase your betfair expectations arent met.
Chrome knows how to answer your other question about how many bets gone through until you think you have something......
I use moving average bands myself just like the sharemarket. Not only can they help in knowing when your due or can expect a pull back, but can also tell you where your system should sit, or if a new system where it looks like its going to sit.

One way to analyse a system's viability is to have 3 or more lots of 150 batches of bets.
If it makes a profit in one lot but breaks nearly even on the other 2 batches it tells us there is some potential.

Another way is to break up the stats over odd & even numberered races .
This will tell us if there is a major disparity in the results.

If there is a huge difference , it tells us that the overall results may have been an annomily & needs futher working..

It's a strong idea to have the stats over 4-5 years.
I have seen systems work brilliantly, say over 3 years only to see it fall in a heap in the 4th year.

If one can get the SR consistant over that period , the next challenge is trying & seek the best prices.
Trying to squeeze a profit using single TAB prices is very difficult longterm, compared to best of 3 TOTS e.g. Sportsbet or Betfair or Bookies.

Its a strong idea to have a min. price acceptable.

After using Betfair, one will see how much we have been ripped by the TABs.
all these years.

If one is using multiple systems , I have found it more profitable , not to double up on selections already selected by the other systems.
The reason being is, if a horse is selected say 3 times, it does not mean that it has 3 times the chance of winning so why place 3 times the amount of money & risk on it.

I feel it is important to try & strive for a consistant SR first, of approx 22-25% if win betting with some profit, any less & one must be prepared for long runs of outs of 30+.
The profit will always vary, month to month, that's why it is so important to use a medium that can maximise a price that is better than a single TAB.

Cheers.

__________________
Cheers.

System that make a profit for three years and then fall in a hole in the fourth are faulty in some way, the results look good, but they don't check out the viability correctly.
PPM are the biggest perpetrators(?) of this.
Sometimes the distribution of winners by price range are completely out of whack and this is a big flag to backfitted systems.
The other is when you have Miss Finland rated at 400/1 and it wins easily at odds on.
A very big warning sign, that a whole bunch chose to ignore.

__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 400,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 30/04/2024
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg

Hi Iomaca,
SQUARE ROOT STAKING PLAN
Heres a staking plan that you might like to run your figures over.
I call it the Square Root staking plan.
The idea is to go up one unit after each looser & restart once any profit is made.

If a winner is struck which does not clear the slate , one uses the calculator to input the total current loss, then hit the Square Root key.
This is now the next bet amount to be placed before we start going up the ladder again until the next winner.
Bank needed $1200
Example.
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11w(3.00)
Loss currently $25 after winner, now hit square root key = 5 units is now the next bet then 6, 7, 8, ect. until another winner gets up.
Keep doing this until 2+ units in front, then start again.

This should show a profit where normally a LOT is shown.

I have found its a good idea to stop betting for the day, if 9 losers in a row presents itself on the day.
Then continue where one left of the next day.
Try & only target races where the Fav is paying $2.80+

The bets will ususlly stay in control without having to outlay huge bet amounts to make it recover.

Cheers.

__________________
Cheers.

Chrome,


You talk about ratio of winners. What sort of number should one be looking for?

Happy New Year

i go dizzy looking at the contortions being used to punt.
surely the systems and punting methods themselves have a downside effect on good punting.

i have found that it is almost impossible to follow a system due to many situations such as work, tab not operating. e.g. i had the winner of the kalgoorlie cup ready to punt but the tasmanian tab decided not to operate on kalgoorlie that day. it won at $55.
then we forget the race, the phone rings, the wife want something done etc.

dont become captive to your system and seek a more direct approach of selections.
good luck but the system would stop me before the horses get to the starting gate.

__________________
laurie