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#1
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Because today is a public holiday in WA I decided to do a bit of research on the Tabform ratings which are also the Unitab ratings. Are they in fact AAP ratings?
The results of the last 5 months for this system are 99 selections - 14 winners - avge divy $13 - LS profit 81 units. The best winner was Roman Arch in Melb in the spring - $23. You would need a big heart to follow a system with such a low strike rate but it achieved a good result if you had done so. Will it continue to succeed? Probably not, but I've backed Sportsman ($17 winner)and Wishart ($14)from a handful of bets in the last couple of weeks so I'll continue on until the profits run out or ...... . The rules - Metro Sat only excluding Adelaide and Perth. Consider any 100 pointer left after scratchings. Back it if you can obtain $8.50 or more. Ignore races where 3 100 pointers are >= $8.5. I know that Sportz and others have looked at 100 pointers so if any of you have some extra rules which would improve the bottom line feel free to jump in. [ This Message was edited by: jacfin on 2004-03-02 11:45 ] [ This Message was edited by: jacfin on 2004-03-03 12:06 ] [ This Message was edited by: jacfin on 2004-03-04 12:18 ] |
#2
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Any idea how that system would have gone at country and provincial meetings? Desert Clearance a 100 rater just got up at Sale paying $8.60 here in Qld!!!
Anyway, I love the Unitab ratings and I've got one for you to look at: 1. At least 8 starters after scratchings. 2. Horse must be the only 100 rater left after scratchings. 3. Must be first up from a spell. 4. Must have won at this distance (c or d). In the last 3 months, that simple system made around 85% profit and it also picked Sportsman. Your system looks pretty good as it is, but if you want to improve things, I suggest you could look at winners at this distance (c or d) or last start beaten favourites. [ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-03-02 08:39 ] |
#3
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Sportz
I knew that you'd have some good ideas to contribute. The distance winner seems like a good angle to look at. I'd like to get the hit rate up to 20% if possible even if it sacrificed some of the profit. I'll look into it when I continue my research. I must confess that until this morning when I was doing the research I didn't know that unitab had ratings on C or P meetings. We get them for Sat meetings only in the TAB form guide. Something you wrote elsewhere made me think that they were perhaps the same as the unitab ratings and a spot check seems to confirm that. Do you have the breakdown of win% etc for the first up system? It looks like a good one and shows your genius for finding 7 day a week systems. I have the utmost admiration for someone who can do this. |
#4
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Around 30%.
I'm sorry, I haven't actually updated my figures, but up until last week, they were like this: 16 wins from 52 bets and a profit of 86% I personally use a pre-post price range of $3.00-$21.00 and using that, the figures are like this: 14 wins from 46 bets and a profit of 101% Hope that helps. [ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-03-01 16:02 ] |
#5
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Okay, not quite so good in the past week or two. Here are the updated figures:
Selections 59 Wins 18, Win return $102.30, Win profit 73% Places 34, Place return $66.00, Place profit 12% With $3-$21 pre-post price rule: Selections 52 Wins 15, Win return $96.40, Win profit 85% Places 31, Place return $63.90, Place profit 23% As for your idea, I think it's an excellent one. As I was going through a few results yesterday, I noticed many good priced winners from the 100 raters on all days of the week. I'm going to have to look into that. :smile: [ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-03-02 09:43 ] |
#6
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Sportz,
Just curious do you check the selections 1st up strike rate or just bet them if the above rules apply. Cheers |
#7
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Good point. No, these results are without checking for first-up strike rates. I'll have to look into that too. :smile:
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#8
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Quote:
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#9
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Sorry, not at the moment. However, I am working on these 100 raters systems at the moment and by the time I'm finished, I'll have some figures for you. :smile:
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#10
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Sportz....in the above results what was the test period of those selections
how many selection a day would you say |
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